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How Expensive Is Putin's War?

 

What is Putin shelling out to wage the war against Ukraine? Not economic losses at home from the sanctions but out of pockets costs.

Researchers decided to look into this issue. A new study on March 2 by the Centre for Economic Recovery, consulting firm Civitta and EasyBusiness has delivered a rapid assessment of the costs of the war for the Russian economy, finding that – even according to the most conservative estimates – Russia is bleeding money.

Thr scale of the mobilization – including its logistics, personnel, ammunition, fuel, rocket launches, and so on – will cost more money each day. Plus Putin is adding another 10 Divisions. As a result, according to the researchers, the daily cost of war for Russia currently is “likely to exceed €20 billion” as the invasion scales.

Let’s do the math. €20 billion per day. €140 billion per week. €600 billion per month. Very soon the war will run into real money.

Think of the opportunity costs. What could €600 billion have done in Russia for infrastructure, education, medical care, jobs, etc.

Research: ‘Ukraine war costs Russian military €20 billion per day’

Is The U.S. Headed For A Second Civil War?

      Something jumped out and hit me hard as I was doing my research this morning. Edward Luce is a distinguished journalist who works for the FT of London. I have been in a meeting with him in person. I have watched numerous podcasts where he is the host. He published an article with the following title: "Is America Heading For Civil War?"

     The author is a British subject, He has "no political ax to grind." He is not a conspiracy theorist or a man with extreme views. He works for a publication that is centuries old and has an impeccable reputation worldwide.

   He cites the book: "The Next Civil War: Dispatches From America's Future" by Stephen Marche. He points out that Civil War II would not be a repeat of the original civil war from 1861 to 1965. Certain states would not secede from the union. The US military machine would be able to defeat any insurgency despite the presence of 400,000,000 firearms: many of them military assault rifles. It would asymmetrical warfare like what was seen in Afghanistan, Iraq, and in Britain during the time of the Irish Republican Army.

     This is a recipe for huge political instability and social disruption. It might lead to a breakup of this country. Or none of it may happen. If you are in the investment business, Ray Dalio is one of the great leaders. He is highly respected. He rates the probability of a second US civil war at 30%.

Honoring Major John Robert Helms On Memorial Day

       Today is Memorial Day here in the United States. It is a special day to honor the hundreds of thousands of men and women who made incredible sacrifices, including their lives, fighting for this country in times of war. Today I want to focus on one of those brave people. I had a great uncle named John Robert Helms. He had red hair. He was always funny and full of good cheer.  He was a great family man. Those of us who knew him well held him in awe and respect. He was one heck of a great military pilot and a hero both in World War II and in Korea.

       When World War II broke out, he passed all the tests and was accepted for flight training in the US Army Air Corps. He did an incredible job in flight training. He earned his pilot’s wings. He was assigned to fly a P-38 Lightning fighter plane. This plane had twin engines and a forktail. It could get close to 500 miles per hour in level flight. If a pilot put the plane into a power dive, it could come close to breaking the sound barrier.

    Urban legend has it that Uncle John Robert loved to do wild things in the plane that were against regulations. My mother always told me the funny story about him flying his P-38 under a low-hanging bridge at high speed. Such antics did not sit well with his superior officers. He was removed from flying fighters and sent to be a B-17 pilot. This was a lumbering 4-engine bomber with a top speed of around 235 miles per hour.

    He found himself assigned to the 8th Air Force flying out of England doing bombing runs over Germany. Each bomber crew was required to fly 25 bombing missions over Germany before they were relieved. Less than 25% of the crews made it through mission #25. Most were shot down between mission #8 and mission#12 with many dying. If you want to get an idea of what Uncle John Robert went through, here is an interview with a former B-17 pilot, now over 100 years old, who survived his 25 missions bombing Germany:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CAxfsBxK5U

    Uncle John Robert survived his 25 missions. Was it sheer good luck? That played a part in his survival. He must have been an incredible pilot with a very cool head under fire and great leadership capabilities.

    When World War II ended, Uncle John Robert stayed in the Mississippi Army National Guard. For some unknown reason, he stopped being a pilot (Perhaps he failed the physical exam to continue as a pilot?). He became the commander of a tank battalion. When the North Koreans invaded South Korea, he was called back to active duty and sent to fight in Korea, He was involved in tank battles against both North Korean and Communist Chinese units.

     Memorial Day honors very special men like my Uncle John Robert!

Two Greek Oil Tankers Seized By Iranian Revolutionary Guards In The Strait of Hormuz-Danger!!!!

      I am always on the lookout for stories that major media outlets miss or do not take seriously. There is a tiny notice in the New York Times this morning about two Greek oil tankers being seized in the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian Revolutionary Guard units using a helicopter and small patrol boats. This seizure was in retaliation for the seizure of a Russian flagged tanker carrying Iranian oil by Greek authorities. (The Iranian oil has been taken off the Russian ship. I would bet that the Greeks used this oil for domestic needs.)

     This is a very disturbing event. Imagine many other oil tankers being seized by Iranian authorities over sanctions issues. This will drive oil prices much higher. It will create all sorts of instability in the oil markets.

     For some years I was part of a team that did all sorts of wargaming with respect to Iran and its nuclear program. One of the nightmare scenarios was that Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz. Please do not go into panic mode. But be very alert and watchful over the next few weeks.

What Lies Beneath Antarctica

 

What Lies Beneath

Researchers found that there is a large amount of groundwater buried beneath Antarctica’s ice, a discovery that confirms decades of speculation, New Scientist reported.

Scientists have come across “ice streams” which they say are responsible for bringing much of Antarctica’s ice to the ocean.

“They’re sort of like water slides in that if there’s water at the base of your ice stream, it can go very quickly but if there’s no water there, you can’t go very fast,” said Chloe Gustafson, the lead author of a new study on Antarctica’s underground water.

In their paper, Gustafson and her team studied the seismic activity and electromagnetic fields beneath the Whillans ice stream in western Antarctica. Their findings showed a kilometer-thick layer of sediment saturated with a combination of fresh glacier water and old saltwater.

The team said that previous research has unveiled mainly shallow pools of water sitting between the ice streams and the ground below. But this reservoir had 10 times as much water as the shallower pools.

Despite showing that Antarctica packs groundwater, the authors explained that the discovery could be essential for controlling the flow rate of the ice streams, a process that is crucial to understand for predicting the effects of climate change on sea levels.

“Ultimately, we want to understand how quickly that ice is going to flow off the continent into the ocean and affect that sea-level rise,” Gustafson concluded.


A House Featured In The Film The Birds Is For Sale

 

Get an inside look at the Sonoma County home seen in Hitchcock’s ‘The Birds,’ listed for $1.1M

Photo of Annie Vainshtein

Fans of Alfred Hitchcock’s 1963 film “The Birds,” filmed in the Bodega Bay area of Sonoma County, may remember a Victorian home right next to the infamous Potter Schoolhouse.

That home, an 1880s Italianate Victorian that sits on 1.15 acres in Bodega, is on the market for $1.1 million. The house is also situated near another historic building: St. Teresa of Avila Church, a cherished subject of photographer Ansel Adams.

“It’s just surreal to have that as your backyard neighbor,” said David Gowan, the listing agent at Golden Gate Sotheby’s International Realty. “The setting is one-of-a-kind.”

The main property, a two-story home with just over 1,500 square feet, was enlarged over the years by the current sellers, who unexpectedly decided to move to the East Coast, said Gowan. Not thinking they’d leave, they’d spent the last six years doing a complete renovation of the home, which had no foundation and a failing septic system when they purchased it.

The 1880s Italianate Victorian featured in "The Birds," is on the market in Bodega for $1.1 million.

The 1880s Italianate Victorian featured in "The Birds," is on the market in Bodega for $1.1 million.

Courtesy of Golden Gate Sotheby’s International Realty

Other renovations included windows, an underground gas line, a hot tub, a tankless hot water heater, a furnace and expansions to the property - adding a detached office and a detached studio space.

All of those improvements, while still retaining the feel of a historic Victorian home, brought prospective buyers from all over the Bay Area, said Gowan, adding that he has even gotten inquiries from buyers in Los Angeles and Hawaii who were prepared to bid on the home sight unseen.