Israel Military Exercise May Be Warning to Iran, U.S. (Update1)
By Tony Capaccio and Ken Fireman
June 20 (Bloomberg) -- A wide-ranging Israeli military
exercise in the eastern Mediterranean was likely aimed at
warning both Iran and the U.S. about the possibility of a strike
against Iranian nuclear facilities, a U.S. analyst said.
``It's very hard to think of any other enemies Israel has
that would require such a massive use of forces or an attack
waged at such a distance,'' said Michael O'Hanlon, a foreign-
policy analyst at Washington's Brookings Institution.
The June 2 exercise involved about 100 aircraft and
included mid-air refueling missions, according to two U.S.
defense officials who are familiar with the broad outlines of
the Israeli operation. They spoke on condition of anonymity.
At the United Nations, Russia's envoy cautioned that even
the threat of military action might damage a diplomatic effort
aimed at persuading Iran to limit its nuclear work.
``If things happen like threats of force and unilateral
sanctions outside the framework of the Security Council, it is
distracting from the negotiating process,'' Ambassador Vitaly
Churkin told reporters. ``A military move would have devastating
consequences for the prospect of resolving the Iranian nuclear
issue, for the region and internationally.''
O'Hanlon said the exercise may have been designed to send
two simultaneous messages: one to the Iranians that a strike
could be made unless they rein in their nuclear activities, and
another to the U.S. about the possibility of an attack.
`Used to It'
``They want to get us used to it, or at least not be
totally surprised by it,'' O'Hanlon said. ``They want to be able
to say they gave us warning. And they want to dissuade Iran as
well. It's also battlefield training. It's all these things
simultaneously.''
The New York Times, which first reported on the exercise,
said it had a range of 900-miles (1,450-kilometers). The Times
quoted unidentified U.S. officials as saying the exercise could
be a rehearsal for an attack against the Iranian nuclear plant
in Natanz as well as Iran's long-range conventional missiles.
The UN Security Council has approved three rounds of
sanctions against Iran for its failure to halt uranium
enrichment, a process used for making fuel for civilian energy
or a bomb. The U.S. and European allies accuse Iran of trying to
develop a bomb; Iran insists its activities are peaceful and
legal under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Incentives Package
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said yesterday
that officials in Tehran are studying an incentives package to
stop enrichment. Still, Iran's ambassador to the UN's
International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said
the previous day that Iran wouldn't be pushed into suspending
enrichment.
Crude oil rose today following the Times report that Israel
held a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iranian
nuclear targets, and as the weaker dollar enhanced the appeal of
commodities as a currency hedge. Oil traded at $134.89 a barrel
at 1 p.m. in New York, up $2.96 for the day.
A senior Iranian cleric reacted to reports of the Israeli
exercise by saying his country would respond to an Israeli
attack on nuclear facilities with a ``heavy blow.''
Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, leading Friday prayers in Tehran,
said today that Iran favored dialogue and would resist
``mischievous acts,'' the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency
said. Such an attack would prompt an ``uproar on the part of our
nation,'' Khatami said.
`A Heavy Blow'
``If enemies, especially Israelis and their U.S. supporters,
wish to speak in the language of force, they should rest assured
they will be dealt a heavy blow on the face by the Iranian
nation,'' the ayatollah said, according to IRNA.
Iran doesn't recognize Israel, and President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad has repeatedly predicted the end of the Jewish
state.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the
international community not to take further measures against
Iran without evidence that it's really trying to make a nuclear
bomb, Interfax reported.
The Israel Defense Forces said in a statement that the
``Israeli Air Force regularly trains for various missions in
order to confront and meet the challenges posed by the threats
facing Israel.'' David Segal, spokesman for the Israeli Embassy
in Washington, declined to comment further.
No Comment
``We are not commenting on this one,'' U.S. National
Security Council spokeswoman Kate Starr said. White House
spokesman Tony Fratto also declined to comment.
A task force on Iran policy and U.S.-Israel relations
organized by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said
June 16 that Israel may be more inclined to attack Iran because
a U.S. intelligence assessment last year eroded support for
preventing Iran's government from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
The report, the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate
released in December, said Iran stopped its nuclear weapons
program in 2003.
Reactions to the NIE ``may have heightened the inclination
of some Israeli strategists to give further consideration to
unilateral military action to forestall Iran's development of a
nuclear capability,'' the task force said.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Tony Capaccio in Washington at
acapaccio@bloomberg.net;
Ken Fireman in Washington at
kfireman1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 20, 2008 13:21 EDT