My friends I have been commenting for years that the US income tax system is so complicated that even the employees at the IRS do not understand it. I got living proof of that early this morning. I got up at four and my instincts kept telling me that something was wrong with my 2013 Federal return. I started to examine it carefully. I found a number of mistakes and ommissions. I had to redo the whole thing. I am not a CPA but I have worked on taxes for 40 years. If I made mistakes imagine what happens with those who are not well trained. Congress please change the tax system to make it fair and simple for all of us to understand.
Life takes us in many strange directions and wonderful discoveries. It never turns out the way we thought it would.
Friday, January 31, 2014
Thursday, January 30, 2014
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Jack's South America: A beginner's guide to Brazil - Lonely Planet
Jack's South America: A beginner's guide to Brazil - Lonely Planet: A beginner's guide to Brazil - Lonely Planet : 'via Blog this'
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Cutting The Poor Off From Help-My Rise From Homelessness and Despair
In the early 1930's my dear grand mother Sarah Elizabeth Walters found herself "in a big pickle." She had ten kids and my grand father left to seek his fortune in the East Texas Oil fields. There was not much welfare over 80 years ago and very little employment for women. My grandmother was a lady of incredible character, resourcefulness and determination. She sat down with the kids and made a plan for all of them to survive. Every child was to continue with schooling. Every child was also to have a part time job and contribute to the costs of running the house. Some children had to move out of their rooms. These rooms were rented to tenants. My dear grand mother had to take in washing and go out and clean houses like a maid. They all survived those dark days and it made them all stronger.
In those "good old days" the average house might have had a mortgage equal to 20% of the value of the house. Even if foreclosure was a possibility, President Roosevelt put a moratorium on all foreclosures. Food, medical care, and other expenses were far lower than they are today. Families stood together and helped those in need.
Let us fast forward some 65 years later to 1996. I found myself in San Jose, California broke. I found out quickly that there was little or no job market for a 48 year old male. I had no family to aid me in this time of need. I found myself sleeping on the streets for two days. Then I came to Inn Visions. It was a homeless program. I spent some 18 months of my life in this homeless program before I got a job that paid a humane living wage. Without this program, I would have ended up permanently on the streets with no hope in life.
Now I see the big push to cut unemployment benefits, food stamps, etc. It's all part of that proud American tradition of rugged individualism and being responsible and taking care of yourself. Please do not get me wrong, I admire these virtues that made our country great. But times have changed. In many cases families no longer stick together and help one another. The cost of every thing in life has gone up so much. The job market has changed and it's tough to get a job. Massive retraining and new skills will be required for this new challenging world.
There are going to be a few unscrupulous and clever people who "game the system" to get benefits from the government. But there are a lot of people who genuinely need help. We cannot afford to turn our back on these people. I doubt that many of the people cutting these benefits ever had to sleep on the streets and do without food and even a shower, as I have.
In those "good old days" the average house might have had a mortgage equal to 20% of the value of the house. Even if foreclosure was a possibility, President Roosevelt put a moratorium on all foreclosures. Food, medical care, and other expenses were far lower than they are today. Families stood together and helped those in need.
Let us fast forward some 65 years later to 1996. I found myself in San Jose, California broke. I found out quickly that there was little or no job market for a 48 year old male. I had no family to aid me in this time of need. I found myself sleeping on the streets for two days. Then I came to Inn Visions. It was a homeless program. I spent some 18 months of my life in this homeless program before I got a job that paid a humane living wage. Without this program, I would have ended up permanently on the streets with no hope in life.
Now I see the big push to cut unemployment benefits, food stamps, etc. It's all part of that proud American tradition of rugged individualism and being responsible and taking care of yourself. Please do not get me wrong, I admire these virtues that made our country great. But times have changed. In many cases families no longer stick together and help one another. The cost of every thing in life has gone up so much. The job market has changed and it's tough to get a job. Massive retraining and new skills will be required for this new challenging world.
There are going to be a few unscrupulous and clever people who "game the system" to get benefits from the government. But there are a lot of people who genuinely need help. We cannot afford to turn our back on these people. I doubt that many of the people cutting these benefits ever had to sleep on the streets and do without food and even a shower, as I have.
Jack's Africa: Africa Rising conference to address Africa’s achie...
Jack's Africa: Africa Rising conference to address Africa’s achie...: Africa Rising conference to address Africa’s achievements, road ahead : 'via Blog this'
Jack's Africa: JANUARY 2014 NEWSLETTER - ohomen171@gmail.com - Gm...
Jack's Africa: JANUARY 2014 NEWSLETTER - ohomen171@gmail.com - Gm...: JANUARY 2014 NEWSLETTER - ohomen171@gmail.com - Gmail : 'via Blog this'
Monday, January 27, 2014
Jack's Africa: Australian junior applies for right to explore for...
Jack's Africa: Australian junior applies for right to explore for...: Australian junior applies for right to explore for shale gas in Karoo : 'via Blog this'
Sunday, January 26, 2014
Saturday, January 25, 2014
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Emerging Market Contagion Spreads; Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey Roundup; 50% Tax on Internet Purchases
Friday, January 24, 2014
USS Pueblo: LBJ Considered Nuclear Weapons, Naval Blockade, Ground Attacks in Response to 1968 North Korean Seizure of Navy Vessel, Documents Show
Today Is My Wife Elena's Birthday!
My incredible wife Elena has her birthday today. It is a celebration of an incredible life with outstanding accomplishments.
Elena and I have something in common. We both a survivors of South American military governments. I survived living in Brasil and Peru under military dictatorships. Life was not always pleasant during those times. But it was not horrible.
When Elena was 15 years of age, the military government took over in Argentina. I can best compare it to what happened in Nazi Germany after Hitler came to power. Some 30,000 people disappeared. Babies were stolen from their families and given to strangers to raise. Literally hundreds of millions of dollars of property was stolen from the rightful owners.
During that horrible time one's worst nightmare was to have a green Ford Falcon pull up in front of your house or apartment one night. After the dreaded knock on the door, people would be arrested, taken to a military or police facility for torture and later executed.
One night after the military came to power, a green Ford Falcon pulled up in front of Elena's house. The dreaded knock followed. For a brief eternity, Elena and her family thought that it was the end. The secret police asked for a person who did not live in the house and asked for permission to go through their house to get to another house. Of course Elena's parents could not say no. The secret police went to another house. They hauled off a pregnant woman who was never seen again.
Despite all of this horror, Elena managed to graduate from high school one year early. She got accepted to medical school at the University of Buenos Aires. She graduated at age 23 with an honors diploma. (This medical school has a few Nobel Prize winners by the way and is a very tough educational institution.)
I could spend many more pages talking about Elena's incredible achievements in life. I know how lucky I have been for the last 13 years to be with her. She is the best thing that ever happened in my life!!!!
Elena HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Elena and I have something in common. We both a survivors of South American military governments. I survived living in Brasil and Peru under military dictatorships. Life was not always pleasant during those times. But it was not horrible.
When Elena was 15 years of age, the military government took over in Argentina. I can best compare it to what happened in Nazi Germany after Hitler came to power. Some 30,000 people disappeared. Babies were stolen from their families and given to strangers to raise. Literally hundreds of millions of dollars of property was stolen from the rightful owners.
During that horrible time one's worst nightmare was to have a green Ford Falcon pull up in front of your house or apartment one night. After the dreaded knock on the door, people would be arrested, taken to a military or police facility for torture and later executed.
One night after the military came to power, a green Ford Falcon pulled up in front of Elena's house. The dreaded knock followed. For a brief eternity, Elena and her family thought that it was the end. The secret police asked for a person who did not live in the house and asked for permission to go through their house to get to another house. Of course Elena's parents could not say no. The secret police went to another house. They hauled off a pregnant woman who was never seen again.
Despite all of this horror, Elena managed to graduate from high school one year early. She got accepted to medical school at the University of Buenos Aires. She graduated at age 23 with an honors diploma. (This medical school has a few Nobel Prize winners by the way and is a very tough educational institution.)
I could spend many more pages talking about Elena's incredible achievements in life. I know how lucky I have been for the last 13 years to be with her. She is the best thing that ever happened in my life!!!!
Elena HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Ten Years In Our Home
Ten years ago today Elena went to a title company late on a cold evening to sign all the papers to buy this house. We have spent a lot of years here. We have had a lot of struggles and trials with this house.Elena Torello refused to quit and walk away even when this house was falling apart and hundreds of thousands of dollars "underwater." stand on the house and look up at it admiringly. I think to myself: "This is one of my greatest good accomplishments in life."
Monday, January 20, 2014
Saturday, January 18, 2014
Jack's South America: Raúl Castro’s unhurried reforms of Cuba economy fa...
Jack's South America: Raúl Castro’s unhurried reforms of Cuba economy fa...: Raúl Castro’s unhurried reforms of Cuba economy falter - FT.com : 'via Blog this'
Friday, January 17, 2014
Jack's South America: My Stepson Pedro
Jack's South America: My Stepson Pedro: http://www.er.uqam.ca/nobel/r3424621/labo/en/site/Pedro.html
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Jack's Africa: W. Africa No. 2 For Mergers and Acquisitions, Part...
Jack's Africa: W. Africa No. 2 For Mergers and Acquisitions, Part...: W. Africa No. 2 For Mergers and Acquisitions, Part 2 of 3 | AFKInsider : 'via Blog this'
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Jack's Africa: Cape Town named top destination for 2014
Jack's Africa: Cape Town named top destination for 2014: Cape Town named top destination for 2014 : 'via Blog this'
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Some Fascinating Facts About China
This article, though aimed at a US audience, gives a scary insight into China 's growing economic power.
In future China will employ millions of American workers and dominate thousands of small communities all over the United States . Chinese acquisition of U.S. Businesses set a new all-time record last year, and it is on pace to shatter that record this year.
Thanks in part to our massively bloated trade deficit with China , the Chinese have trillions of dollars to spend. They are only just starting to exercise their economic muscle. It is important to keep in mind that there is often not much of a difference between “the Chinese government” and “Chinese corporations”. In 2011, 43 percent of all profits in China were produced by companies where the Chinese government had a controlling interest. Last year a Chinese company spent $2.6 billion to purchase AMC entertainment – one of the largest movie theater chains in the United States . Now that Chinese company controls more movie ticket sales than anyone else in the world.
But China is not just relying on acquisitions to expand its economic power. “Economic beachheads” are being established all over America . For example, Golden Dragon Precise Copper Tube Group, Inc. Recently broke ground on a $100 million plant in Thomasville , Alabama . Many of the residents of Thomasville , Alabama will be glad to have jobs, but it will also become yet another community that will now be heavily dependent on communist China . And guess where else Chinese companies are putting down roots? Detroit . Chinese-owned companies are investing in American businesses and new vehicle technology, selling everything from seat belts to shock absorbers in retail stores and hiring experienced engineers and designers in an effort to soak up the talent and expertise of domestic automakers and their suppliers. If you recently purchased an “American-made” vehicle, there is a really good chance that it has a number of Chinese parts in it. Industry analysts are hard-pressed to put a number on the Chinese suppliers operating in the United States .
China seems particularly interested in acquiring energy resources in the United States . For example, China is actually mining for coal in the mountains of Tennessee . Guizhou Gouchuang Energy Holdings Group spent 616 million dollars to acquire Triple H Coal Co. in Jacksboro, Tennessee . At the time, that acquisition really didn’t make much news, but now a group of conservatives in Tennessee is trying to stop the Chinese from blowing up their mountains and taking their coal.
And pretty soon China may want to build entire cities in the United States just like they have been doing in other countries. Right now China is actually building a city larger than Manhattan just outside Minsk , the capital of Belarus .
Are you starting to get the picture? China is on the rise. If you doubt this, just read the following:
# When you total up all imports and exports, China is now the number one trading nation on the entire planet.
# Overall, the U.S. has run a trade deficit with China over the past decade that comes to more than 2.3 trillion dollars.
# China has more foreign currency reserves than anyone else on the planet.
# China now has the largest new car market in the entire world.
# China now produces more than twice as many automobiles as the United States does. After being bailed out by U.S. taxpayers, GM is involved in 11 joint ventures with Chinese companies.
# China is the number one gold producer in the world.
# The uniforms for the U.S. Olympic team were made in China .
# 85% of all artificial Christmas trees the world over are made in China .
# The new World Trade Center tower in New York is going to include glass imported from China .
# China now consumes more energy than the United States does.
# China is now in aggregate the leading manufacturer of goods in the entire world.
# China uses more cement than the rest of the world combined.
# China is now the number one producer of wind and solar power on the entire globe.
# China produces 3 times as much coal and 11 times as much steel as the United States does.
# China produces more than 90 percent of the global supply of rare earth elements.
# China is now the number one supplier of components that are critical to the operation of any national defense system.
# In published scientific research articles China is expected to become number one in the world very shortly.
And what we have seen so far may just be the tip of the iceberg. For now, I will just leave you with one piece of advice - Learn to speak Chinese. You are going to need it! |
Monday, January 13, 2014
Sunday, January 12, 2014
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: 48.6% of Spaniards Aged 18-24 Would Take Any Job, Anywhere, for Low Wages; Ikea Spain Gets 100,000 Applicants for 400 Jobs; Walmart, McDonalds Comparison
Saturday, January 11, 2014
Jack's Africa: Polana Serena Hotel-My Hangout In Maputo
Jack's Africa: Polana Serena Hotel-My Hangout In Maputo: Polana Serena Hotel : 'via Blog this'
Thursday, January 9, 2014
Tuesday, January 7, 2014
Elena Fears For Dennis Rodman's Life When He Visits The Noorth Korean President
Elena took note of the fact that former US basketball great Dennis Rodman is always going to North Korea to visit the president Kim Jong Un. She said that the man should be afraid to be around a leader who authorizes so many executions. I pointed out to her that she would not be afraid to have dinner with Texas governor Rick Perry despite all of the executions carried out during his time as governor.
Monday, January 6, 2014
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Battle to Recapture Fallujah from Al Qaeda Forces Coming Up; War in Iraq a complete Failure; US is Biggest Threat to World Peace
Sunday, January 5, 2014
Memories Of Watching An NFL Game In An African Village 20 Years Ago
As some of my dear friends know, in 1993 I spent 8 months in a Xhosa village in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. I was the only European among some 200 Africans. I gave the villagers their first two portable televisions and they got hooked on television. They also fell in love with NFL football games that had to be watched at midnight due to the time difference with the USA. One night we were watching a San Francisco 49'ers game. As always, the 49'ers pulled out a win at the last moment. I was jumping up and down and shouting. One African got quite concerned and gently put his hand on my shoulder. He said to me: "Sir please be careful. You're an older man and might have a heart attack."
I thought of that as I was cheering when San Francisco pulled off a last minute field goal to win the game against Green Bay!!
I thought of that as I was cheering when San Francisco pulled off a last minute field goal to win the game against Green Bay!!
Friday, January 3, 2014
America's Endangered Middle Class-A Warning From Stratfor
The Crisis of the Middle Class and American Power
Stratfor
Editor's Note: The following Geopolitical Weekly originally ran in January 2013.
By George Friedman
When I wrote about the crisis of unemployment in Europe, I received a great deal of feedback. Europeans agreed that this is the core problem while Americans argued that the United States has the same problem, asserting that U.S. unemployment is twice as high as the government's official unemployment rate. My counterargument is that unemployment in the United States is not a problem in the same sense that it is in Europe because it does not pose a geopolitical threat. The United States does not face political disintegration from unemployment, whatever the number is. Europe might.
At the same time, I would agree that the United States faces a potentially significant but longer-term geopolitical problem deriving from economic trends. The threat to the United States is the persistent decline in the middle class' standard of living, a problem that is reshaping the social order that has been in place since World War II and that, if it continues, poses a threat to American power.
The Crisis of the American Middle Class
The median household income of Americans in 2011 was $49,103. Adjusted for inflation, the median income is just below what it was in 1989 and is $4,000 less than it was in 2000. Take-home income is a bit less than $40,000 when Social Security and state and federal taxes are included. That means a monthly income, per household, of about $3,300. It is urgent to bear in mind that half of all American households earn less than this. It is also vital to consider not the difference between 1990 and 2011, but the difference between the 1950s and 1960s and the 21st century. This is where the difference in the meaning of middle class becomes most apparent.
In the 1950s and 1960s, the median income allowed you to live with a single earner -- normally the husband, with the wife typically working as homemaker -- and roughly three children. It permitted the purchase of modest tract housing, one late model car and an older one. It allowed a driving vacation somewhere and, with care, some savings as well. I know this because my family was lower-middle class, and this is how we lived, and I know many others in my generation who had the same background. It was not an easy life and many luxuries were denied us, but it wasn't a bad life at all.
Someone earning the median income today might just pull this off, but it wouldn't be easy. Assuming that he did not have college loans to pay off but did have two car loans to pay totaling $700 a month, and that he could buy food, clothing and cover his utilities for $1,200 a month, he would have $1,400 a month for mortgage, real estate taxes and insurance, plus some funds for fixing the air conditioner and dishwasher. At a 5 percent mortgage rate, that would allow him to buy a house in the $200,000 range. He would get a refund back on his taxes from deductions but that would go to pay credit card bills he had from Christmas presents and emergencies. It could be done, but not easily and with great difficulty in major metropolitan areas. And if his employer didn't cover health insurance, that $4,000-5,000 for three or four people would severely limit his expenses. And of course, he would have to have $20,000-40,000 for a down payment and closing costs on his home. There would be little else left over for a week at the seashore with the kids.
And this is for the median. Those below him -- half of all households -- would be shut out of what is considered middle-class life, with the house, the car and the other associated amenities. Those amenities shift upward on the scale for people with at least $70,000 in income. The basics might be available at the median level, given favorable individual circumstance, but below that life becomes surprisingly meager, even in the range of the middle class and certainly what used to be called the lower-middle class.
The Expectation of Upward Mobility
I should pause and mention that this was one of the fundamental causes of the 2007-2008 subprime lending crisis. People below the median took out loans with deferred interest with the expectation that their incomes would continue the rise that was traditional since World War II. The caricature of the borrower as irresponsible misses the point. The expectation of rising real incomes was built into the American culture, and many assumed based on that that the rise would resume in five years. When it didn't they were trapped, but given history, they were not making an irresponsible assumption.
American history was always filled with the assumption that upward mobility was possible. The Midwest and West opened land that could be exploited, and the massive industrialization in the late 19th and early 20th centuries opened opportunities. There was a systemic expectation of upward mobility built into American culture and reality.
The Great Depression was a shock to the system, and it wasn't solved by the New Deal, nor even by World War II alone. The next drive for upward mobility came from post-war programs for veterans, of whom there were more than 10 million. These programs were instrumental in creating post-industrial America, by creating a class of suburban professionals. There were three programs that were critical:
- The GI Bill, which allowed veterans to go to college after the war, becoming professionals frequently several notches above their parents.
- The part of the GI Bill that provided federally guaranteed mortgages to veterans, allowing low and no down payment mortgages and low interest rates to graduates of publicly funded universities.
- The federally funded Interstate Highway System, which made access to land close to but outside of cities easier, enabling both the dispersal of populations on inexpensive land (which made single-family houses possible) and, later, the dispersal of business to the suburbs.
There were undoubtedly many other things that contributed to this, but these three not only reshaped America but also created a new dimension to the upward mobility that was built into American life from the beginning. Moreover, these programs were all directed toward veterans, to whom it was acknowledged a debt was due, or were created for military reasons (the Interstate Highway System was funded to enable the rapid movement of troops from coast to coast, which during World War II was found to be impossible). As a result, there was consensus around the moral propriety of the programs.
The subprime fiasco was rooted in the failure to understand that the foundations of middle class life were not under temporary pressure but something more fundamental. Where a single earner could support a middle class family in the generation after World War II, it now took at least two earners. That meant that the rise of the double-income family corresponded with the decline of the middle class. The lower you go on the income scale, the more likely you are to be a single mother. That shift away from social pressure for two parent homes was certainly part of the problem.
Re-engineering the Corporation
But there was, I think, the crisis of the modern corporation. Corporations provided long-term employment to the middle class. It was not unusual to spend your entire life working for one. Working for a corporation, you received yearly pay increases, either as a union or non-union worker. The middle class had both job security and rising income, along with retirement and other benefits. Over the course of time, the culture of the corporation diverged from the realities, as corporate productivity lagged behind costs and the corporations became more and more dysfunctional and ultimately unsupportable. In addition, the corporations ceased focusing on doing one thing well and instead became conglomerates, with a management frequently unable to keep up with the complexity of multiple lines of business.
For these and many other reasons, the corporation became increasingly inefficient, and in the terms of the 1980s, they had to be re-engineered -- which meant taken apart, pared down, refined and refocused. And the re-engineering of the corporation, designed to make them agile, meant that there was a permanent revolution in business. Everything was being reinvented. Huge amounts of money, managed by people whose specialty was re-engineering companies, were deployed. The choice was between total failure and radical change. From the point of view of the individual worker, this frequently meant the same thing: unemployment. From the view of the economy, it meant the creation of value whether through breaking up companies, closing some of them or sending jobs overseas. It was designed to increase the total efficiency, and it worked for the most part.
This is where the disjuncture occurred. From the point of view of the investor, they had saved the corporation from total meltdown by redesigning it. From the point of view of the workers, some retained the jobs that they would have lost, while others lost the jobs they would have lost anyway. But the important thing is not the subjective bitterness of those who lost their jobs, but something more complex.
As the permanent corporate jobs declined, more people were starting over. Some of them were starting over every few years as the agile corporation grew more efficient and needed fewer employees. That meant that if they got new jobs it would not be at the munificent corporate pay rate but at near entry-level rates in the small companies that were now the growth engine. As these companies failed, were bought or shifted direction, they would lose their jobs and start over again. Wages didn't rise for them and for long periods they might be unemployed, never to get a job again in their now obsolete fields, and certainly not working at a company for the next 20 years.
The restructuring of inefficient companies did create substantial value, but that value did not flow to the now laid-off workers. Some might flow to the remaining workers, but much of it went to the engineers who restructured the companies and the investors they represented. Statistics reveal that, since 1947 (when the data was first compiled), corporate profits as a percentage of gross domestic product are now at their highest level, while wages as a percentage of GDP are now at their lowest level. It was not a question of making the economy more efficient -- it did do that -- it was a question of where the value accumulated. The upper segment of the wage curve and the investors continued to make money. The middle class divided into a segment that entered the upper-middle class, while another faction sank into the lower-middle class.
American society on the whole was never egalitarian. It always accepted that there would be substantial differences in wages and wealth. Indeed, progress was in some ways driven by a desire to emulate the wealthy. There was also the expectation that while others received far more, the entire wealth structure would rise in tandem. It was also understood that, because of skill or luck, others would lose.
What we are facing now is a structural shift, in which the middle class' center, not because of laziness or stupidity, is shifting downward in terms of standard of living. It is a structural shift that is rooted in social change (the breakdown of the conventional family) and economic change (the decline of traditional corporations and the creation of corporate agility that places individual workers at a massive disadvantage).
The inherent crisis rests in an increasingly efficient economy and a population that can't consume what is produced because it can't afford the products. This has happened numerous times in history, but the United States, excepting the Great Depression, was the counterexample.
Obviously, this is a massive political debate, save that political debates identify problems without clarifying them. In political debates, someone must be blamed. In reality, these processes are beyond even the government's ability to control. On one hand, the traditional corporation was beneficial to the workers until it collapsed under the burden of its costs. On the other hand, the efficiencies created threaten to undermine consumption by weakening the effective demand among half of society.
The Long-Term Threat
The greatest danger is one that will not be faced for decades but that is lurking out there. The United States was built on the assumption that a rising tide lifts all ships. That has not been the case for the past generation, and there is no indication that this socio-economic reality will change any time soon. That means that a core assumption is at risk. The problem is that social stability has been built around this assumption -- not on the assumption that everyone is owed a living, but the assumption that on the whole, all benefit from growing productivity and efficiency.
If we move to a system where half of the country is either stagnant or losing ground while the other half is surging, the social fabric of the United States is at risk, and with it the massive global power the United States has accumulated. Other superpowers such as Britain or Rome did not have the idea of a perpetually improving condition of the middle class as a core value. The United States does. If it loses that, it loses one of the pillars of its geopolitical power.
The left would argue that the solution is for laws to transfer wealth from the rich to the middle class. That would increase consumption but, depending on the scope, would threaten the amount of capital available to investment by the transfer itself and by eliminating incentives to invest. You can't invest what you don't have, and you won't accept the risk of investment if the payoff is transferred away from you.
The agility of the American corporation is critical. The right will argue that allowing the free market to function will fix the problem. The free market doesn't guarantee social outcomes, merely economic ones. In other words, it may give more efficiency on the whole and grow the economy as a whole, but by itself it doesn't guarantee how wealth is distributed. The left cannot be indifferent to the historical consequences of extreme redistribution of wealth. The right cannot be indifferent to the political consequences of a middle-class life undermined, nor can it be indifferent to half the population's inability to buy the products and services that businesses sell.
The most significant actions made by governments tend to be unintentional. The GI Bill was designed to limit unemployment among returning serviceman; it inadvertently created a professional class of college graduates. The VA loan was designed to stimulate the construction industry; it created the basis for suburban home ownership. The Interstate Highway System was meant to move troops rapidly in the event of war; it created a new pattern of land use that was suburbia.
It is unclear how the private sector can deal with the problem of pressure on the middle class. Government programs frequently fail to fulfill even minimal intentions while squandering scarce resources. The United States has been a fortunate country, with solutions frequently emerging in unexpected ways.
It would seem to me that unless the United States gets lucky again, its global dominance is in jeopardy. Considering its history, the United States can expect to get lucky again, but it usually gets lucky when it is frightened. And at this point it isn't frightened but angry, believing that if only its own solutions were employed, this problem and all others would go away. I am arguing that the conventional solutions offered by all sides do not yet grasp the magnitude of the problem -- that the foundation of American society is at risk -- and therefore all sides are content to repeat what has been said before.
People who are smarter and luckier than I am will have to craft the solution. I am simply pointing out the potential consequences of the problem and the inadequacy of all the ideas I have seen so far.
Read more: The Crisis of the Middle Class and American Power | Stratfor
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Thursday, January 2, 2014
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: America's First Marijuana Stores Open in Colorado; Record Opium Crop in Afghanistan; Six Beneficiaries of "War on Drugs"
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Our last family portrait was taken 9 years ago. We also had the good fortune to have my grand daughter and daughter in law in for the holidays. It was a perfect opportunity for a new family portrait. I went to Yelp and looked at a number of photographers. I got a short list of excellent photographers. I did telephone interviews and agreed to hire Doug.
He showed up right on time Saturday morning 20 December. He is a humble and very professional person. He makes you feel confident that he knows what he's doing. WE looked at several options around the house and nothing worked. We went down to the beach. Doug seated all of us on a rock and did a lot of shooting.
I just got the proofs of his work today and I am so so pleased. Doug has done an incredible and captured a magical moment for our family.
Doug thanks and well done!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!