A Stark Warning From Financial Adviser David Chapman

I thought I’d shoot out an update given the dramatic drop in the stock markets today.

The warning is that this is just the beginning. Whether Greece leaves the Euro and the EU is almost moot. The drama there will no doubt continue. Greece has threatened court action if the EU tries to kick them out. So this drama will drag on and on…. And remember that most of the money being sent to Greece was not really getting to the Greek people it was just circled back to bail out the banks most of them German banks. Greece could well default on upwards of €300 billion. That’s a lot of holes being left in EU central banks, EU banks and the IMF.

The fear of course is contagion as the focus might shift to Spain and Italy with their €1.8 trillion plus debts – each. And let’s not even look at France. EU banks are it seems leveraged to the tune of at least 26 to 1. That is just somewhat less than the US banks 30 to 1 leverage prior to the Lehman Brothers implosion in 2008.

But Greece isn’t the only problem. It appears Puerto Rico is on the verge of default and Ukraine is expected to officially default in July. But the real danger lies in China where their stock market appears to be imploding. This is a stock market fueled by massive margin debt. And the Chinese growth since the 2008 financial crisis has been fueled almost exclusively by issuing a mountain of debt. Some say it was the greatest credit expansion in history.  The US stock market is also showing record margin debt. It doesn’t take much of a collapse and suddenly a lot of margin calls are being issued.

This I suspect is merely the beginning with the real collapse most likely getting underway in 2016. Recall that the 2008 collapse actually started in 2007. It took until 2008 to really break down. The stock markets topped in 2000 but it was 2001 and 2002 where things really collapsed.

What was the best performing asset during today’s mini meltdown? It was gold. No it was not spectacular as it was just a quiet $5 rise. The gold stocks were down but they were down very small in comparison to the major stock market. For gold it is interesting to note that while gold fell along with the broader market during the 2008 financial meltdown when the recovery got underway gold led the way to upside. During the 2000-2002 high tech internet crash gold was actually making a stealth rally quietly to the upside. The final low for gold at the time was in early 2001 long before the global stock markets found their bottoms in 2002.

There will be twists and turns as time moves forward. The stock markets may even find a bottom and rally to new highs as they did in 2007 following the initial collapse. In 2000 the US markets couldn’t make new highs but the TSX did make new highs at the time. Patterns tend to repeat themselves.

Another day or so down and intermediate trends most likely could turn down to join the short term trend that has turned firmly to the downside.

But the odds now favour that the financial crisis of 2015-2016 could well be under way. Note that the US markets took out recent lows today. A bad sign that suggests that the markets are headed lower.

David Chapman

BA, FCSI, CIM

Investment Advisor, Technical Strategist

Industrial Alliance Securities Inc.

26 Wellington Street E, Suite 900

Toronto, ON M5E 1S2

Phone: 416-604-0533

Email: dchapman@iagto.ca

Email: david@davidchapman.com

Web: www.davidchapman.com

Twitter: @Davcha12

JacksMars: An Overlooked Irony Of Yesterday's Space-X Rocket ...

JacksMars: An Overlooked Irony Of Yesterday's Space-X Rocket ...: There is a sad irony about yesterday's tragic explosion of a Space-X rocket in Florida. Yesterday was birthday #44 of the founder of Sp...

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Table Wine Merchants of Pacifica, California

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6/27/2015

Every now and then on Yelp I encounter a company that is so good that I wish I could give them 10 stars. Table Wine Merchants you deserve 10 stars! A friend of mine at a swim club is one of Katie's loyal customers. He sent me to her. I walked into the shop. It was small but well-organized and professional. Katie offered me a tasting of wine right after we started to talk. I have been a wine drinker for over 45 years and the Rose she gave me was spectacular. What I quickly figured out that this is a niche business offering high quality wines from all over the world that one would not normally find at, for example, Costco or BevMoCo.
Even nicer was the pleasant surprise that I got when I was quoted prices that are quite competitive with other wine sellers. Katie you have a loyal customer. As Arnold would say: "I'll be back."

That was fun, let's go again!

 

"Harvard On The Bayou"

After completing US Navy training including Vietnam escape and evasion school, I started as a freshman at South Texas Junior College in January of 1968. I was married and working full time. This educational institution had two nicknames in Houston as follows: "Harvard on the bayou" or "Oxford on the cess pool." I bought a big pile of books in the bookstore. I had no idea of how I was going to graduate. With a lot of faith and hard work I graduated with highest honors in June of 1969. I went on to graduate from Tulane University. I got into graduate school of business at George Washington University and made good grades. South Texas Junior College evolved into the University of Houston Downtown Campus. It's now a serious academic institution. I' m proud to add its sweatshirt to my collection!

Internal Revenue Service Data On US Family Incomes

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/06/irs-income-data-on-us-households/?utm_source=The+Big+Picture+Updates&utm_campaign=86e1a2a252-big_picture_email&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_662cf1de86-86e1a2a252-39147621

Driverless Car Attitudes

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/06/driverless-car-attitudes-who-wants-em.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29

Who Is Russia Getting Ready To Fight?

https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/who-russias-military-preparing-fight?utm_medium=email&utm_content=stratfor_geodiary&utm_campaign=nid-218034&utm_source=Facebook

How the FIFA Scandal Could Turn Deadly

Analysis

 JUNE 17, 2015 | 09:15 GMT 

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Analysis

By Fred Burton

Editor's Note: The following piece is part of an occasional series in which Fred Burton, our vice president of intelligence, reflects on his storied experience as a counterterrorism agent for the U.S. State Department.

Security professionals make it their business to be unseen. At concerts and sporting events, they are the ones standing unnoticed in corners and doorways, quietly blending into the walls while someone else takes center stage.

So it's no surprise that with all the recent coverage of the FIFA scandal, more attention has been paid to Rolex-clad executives, ostensibly sitting in well-lit offices and allegedly taking bribes ahead of their next golf outing, than to a group that has enormous insight into the day-to-day dealings of FIFA's administration: the security team. Someone from that team knows what meetings are happening when and where and with whom. Someone has access to his or her travel itineraries and hotel room numbers, business and personal schedules, phone records and emails — all vital evidence for the prosecution.

Because of their unique visibility into the daily activities of the people they protect, FIFA's security personnel will have a central role to play in the coming investigation. The great danger is that playing its role in the growing case against FIFA's management may affect the global security team's ability to perform their primary job: protecting players and fans.

Having been involved in multiple witch hunts within large bureaucracies, I know that when a scandal shakes an organization, everyone from the CEO right down to the janitor feels the effects. And when the scandal merits an investigation, every part of the organization grinds to a halt. My own experience with that kind of organizational breakdown comes from my time as a young special agent with the Department of State during the Iran-Contra affair. In 1985, it came to light that the National Security Council had made a back channel deal with the Israelis and Iranians to trade weapons for American hostages. As soon as the now infamous story broke, panic throughout the intelligence community brought everything to a standstill. Every agent who had been even tangentially involved in the hostage crisis, myself included, worried about their implication in the affair. We all wondered whether the next door the FBI knocked on would be ours.

As a member of the Hostage Location Task Force, I had been personally involved in debriefing American hostages recently released by Hezbollah. My colleagues and I knew nothing of the deal that was now the focus of international attention, a deal made by people far above us in our organization. Yet I found myself having flashbacks to every post, sifting through memories for even the smallest piece of evidence, wondering what I may have done wrong. I knew investigators would scrutinize every phone call and potential source of information. 

Like the State Department and other intelligence agencies during the Iran-Contra scandal, FIFA will have a tense atmosphere in the coming months. FIFA's security team will be anxious and preoccupied as they aid investigators and retrace their own steps. And there's no doubt that this will affect their performance in securing arenas and planning events. It's difficult to think about security perimeters for the 2018 World Cup when you're busy trying to remember what you had for lunch at the same event in 2012. All the time you spend mulling over the events of the past robs the present of your attention.

Munich: A Gruesome Example

Within FIFA, this kind of distraction is particularly concerning — historically, sporting events have been ideal targets of militant attacks. They have a large, concentrated group of potential victims and ongoing news coverage. In other words, they offer a built-in global audience for violent religious or political statements.

Take the 1972 Summer Olympics as a particularly gruesome example. On Sept. 5 of that year, eight Palestinian terrorists from the Black September Organization carried out a spectacular attack in Munich, ultimately killing 11 Israeli athletes. By targeting an event that was already the center of international attention, the Palestinian terrorist group was able to broadcast its ideology to the world.

For international terrorist organizations, the World Cup is no less valuable a target, and groups like al Qaeda and the Islamic State are no less a threat than Black September. In fact, Islamic State leaders are calling on adherents to conduct attacks across the globe, and the specter of tragedies like the Munich Olympics haunts every major sporting event.

FIFA's security team needs to be preparing ahead of time to anticipate and prevent attacks accordingly. Black September operatives prepared for months leading up to the games, conducting surveillance of the Olympic Village and watching the construction of the buildings to identify structural weaknesses. In the time leading up to the 2018 tournament, jihadist organizations could be engaged in similar covert operations, and FIFA needs to be especially alert. But with FIFA itself embroiled in scandal, its executives potentially on trial, and its security staff assisting and being interviewed by federal agents, the pressure and emotional turmoil could compromise critical security protocols.

Today, the FIFA scandal is about corporate corruption, sponsorship and timeslots. But today's articles about bribery charges could very well give way to grislier headlines if terrorist groups use the chaos and panic within the organization as an opportunity to strike. Let's hope FIFA keeps their eye on the ball.

Send us your thoughts on this report.

A Humble And Hard-Working Man Retires

Ever since Elena and I came to Pacifica on her birthday in 2004, Kent Cleaners at 119 Manor Drive here in Pacifica has been our laundry. Jimmy Li is the owner. Jimmy was not only a great dry cleaning person. He was also a very accomplished tailor. I lost my US Navy jacket in 1994. In 2005 I found a replacement jacket and all of the patches from 1971-1972. Jimmy got the jacket put together. I got a precious part of my life back. Many other times Jimmy helped us with repairs and alterations.

He is a hard-working and honest man. He is religious and a great family man. He was so proud when his daughter earned her MBA from Loyola Marymont college in Los Angeles.
I took in our dry cleaning. I expected to see Jimmy greeting me at the counter. Instead a Chinese lady greeted me. She explained to me that Jimmy had retired and she was the new owner. I put in our dry cleaning and will stay with the shop.
Jimmy enjoy your retirement! We appreciate all of your good work and loyalty. We will miss you!

One Of My Ancestors Was The Notorious Pirate Captain William John Kidd

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Kidd

One Of My Ancestors Died Fighting In This Revolutionary War Battle

Painting Battle of Blue Licks

janalloyd007

janalloyd007 originally shared this to Lloyd/McGuire Family Tree

19 Apr 2010 Portrait / Family Photo

In The Line of Duty Battle of Blue Licks Painting of the Battle of Blue LicksThe Battle of Blue Licks was fought on August 19, 1782, and was the last battle of the American Revolutionary War fought in Kentucky. On a hill next to the Licking River in what is now Robertson County, a force of about 50 British rangers and 300 American Indians ambushed and routed 182 Kentucky militiamen killing some 64. It was the worst defeat for the Kentuckians during the war. Black, Charles [Clarence], Private Boone, Israel, Private, Son of Daniel Boone. Boone, Thomas, Private Brannon, Samuel, Private Brown, James, Private, Surveyor Bulger, John, Captain Corn, Esau, Private Cunningham, Hugh, Private, Douglass [Douglas], John, Private Eades [Eads], William, Private Farrier, Thomas, Private Ferguson, Charles, Private Field [Fields], Ezekiel, Private Folley, John, Private Foster, Daniel, Private Fry, John, Private Gilvins [Givins], William, Lieutenant Gordon, John, Captain Graham, Little James, Private Green, Jervis, Private Greggs [Gregg], Daniel, Private Harlan, Silas, Major - died leading the advance party. Harper, Francis, Private Harper, Matthew, Private Harris, William, Private Hinson, Thomas, Lieutenant Jolly, John, Private Kennedy, John, Lieutenant Kincaid, Joseph, Captain Ledgerwood, James, Captured and Killed Lindsey, Joseph, Ensign Marshall, Gilbert, Private McBride, William, Captain McBride, Francis, Private McConnell, Andrew, Private McCracken, Isaac, Private McGuire, James, Lieutenant Miller, Henry, Private Nelson, John, Private Nutt, John, Private Oldfield, Joseph, Private O'Neal, John, Private Overton, Clough, Captain Polley [Polly], Drury, Private Price, John, Private Robertson, William, Private Rogers, Barnett, Lieutenant Rose, Matthias [Matthew], Private Shannon, William, Ensign Smith, James, Private Smith, William, Private Stapleton, John, Private Stephens, William, Private Stern, Val, Private Stevenson, John, Private Stewart, William, Private Todd, John, Colonel, grandfather of Mary Todd Lincoln. Tomlinson, Richard, Private Trigg, Stephen, Lieutenant Colonel Wilson, Israel, Private, Wilson [1], John, Private Wilson [2], John, Private Woods, Archibald, Private Wylie, Matthew, Private http://www.kynghistory.ky.gov/history/1qtr/lodbluelicks.htm

19 August 1782 Blue Licks, KY

ohomen171

ohomen171 added this to Walters Family Tree

Yesterday

Public Comments (from all member trees) 

3 of 4

twoholts1 Very interesting link to history and family . . . thank you!

4 days ago •  • 

Boby43 I visited the site last year of Battle of Blue Licks. Lt James Felix McGuire was my 5th great Grandfather.

3 days ago •  • 

athena78a he was my 6th G-Grandfather. I actually have an old family Geneaology of the McGuires from 1980. At the time, they only could get so far back without having to travel out of state. 35 years later, we are able to go back further in the family line thanks to the internet and the modern technology that was invented. I am a descendent of William Guyer McGuire.

11 hours ago •  • 

Jack's South America: Some Reflections On The Brasilian Man Facing Extra...

Jack's South America: Some Reflections On The Brasilian Man Facing Extra...: Elena and I sometimes discuss big civil disputes and divorce cases. We have a favorite saying as follows: "The lawyers are going ...

A Wonderful Roofing Company Saves My Neck

A wonderful Mexican roofing company-New High Protection got me out of a big jam this morning. I had installed an exhaust fan in Luah's bathroom. The electricians did an excellent job of installing the ceiling fan in the bathroom. They were not able to come up with a way to vent steam to the outside through the roof. With out this capability, the fan would vent steam inside the attic. Our central heating system and attic insulation would have received water damage. I had a problem. Most roofing companies are booked up for months in advance with the boom in construction. My normal construction man, Tim Miller, was booked until 15 July. This great roofing company came out. They went right to work. They installed a solid aluminum exhaust pipe that will last for many years.

The High Cost Of Being A Basketball Fan

Elena and I are Golden State Warriors fans. We were so thrilled Sunday night when they won the third game. We feel confident that they are near the championship.What is sad for us is the astronomical price of the tickets. These prices can range from several hundred dollars to tens of thousands of dollars just for one game. We cannot afford such an extravagance. We're amazed to see a full stadium at each game. Where do he fans find the money for the tickets?

Jack's Africa: Zimbabwe Finally Ditches Currency For US. Dollar

Jack's Africa: Zimbabwe Finally Ditches Currency For US. Dollar: Zimbabwe finally ditches currency for the US dollar Patrick McGee   Share   Author alerts Daily email Immediate email ...

A British Man Tells Me Fascinating Things About Centuries Past

Dad's first wife was Dorothy Fetchenback Weyl (Obviously a German lady) and dad married her in 1942.
I have been researching all of the families going back 100's of years. Dad's side of the family seems to be from England and Germany. Mother's side of the family comes from Ireland and Scotland. Ironically Patterson is both an Irish and a Scottish name. I am amazed at how far back the birth records go.
As luck would have it this morning I was in my early morning swimming workout with a man from England named Richard Henry. We started discussing ancestry.com. He told me something amazing. In all European countries in centuries past only the births, deaths, marriages and divorces of the aristocrats and people with money were recorded. This means that both sides of our family are people with money and substance and not poor peasants.
We have a relative from the Ball Family who fought in the Revolutionary War. His name was George Ball. Based on this, you, Aunt Beverly, Balinda, and Kelly should qualify for membership in Daughters of the American Revolution. Uncle Donnell, myself and many other people from the family should qualify for membership Sons of the American Revolution.