Life takes us in many strange directions and wonderful discoveries. It never turns out the way we thought it would.
Saturday, February 29, 2020
Jack's Thoughts On The Cronovirus Threat
Dear:
Your Saturday morning
newspaper...things are not nice right now due to Covid-19. Major conferences
have been cancelled including a summit for Asian leaders that President Trump
was supposed to host here. Amazon has banned employees from flying on domestic
and international flights. I'm sure that a lot of other companies all over the
world have quietly done the same. We could see travel bans here including South
Korea, Italy, and Iran.
The only hopeful note here
is that the Israelis say that they have developed a vaccine against Covid-19:
https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/COVID-19-coronavirus-vaccine-Israel-15093659.php
The Israelis have an
incredible pharmaceutical industry. Let us all hope for the best.
One disturbing model has
emerged. This is just a theoretical exercise, but it is food for thought. As of
2017 we had an estimated 7.53 billion people on earth. As of 2020, I have seen
estimates of around 7.8 billion people. In the Coronavirus model that I have
seen, some 33.33% of the world's population will be infected. This means that
an estimated 2.6 billion people will be infected. The projected fatality rate
is 2% of those infected. The number of projected fatalities is 52 million.
On a personal level, everyone
needs to practice good hygiene including washing hands frequently and cleaning
areas where you work and live. Avoid crowds and people coughing. Do not travel
unless it is an emergency of the highest level. If you must travel, look at
buying a seat on a corporate jet as opposed to a commercial airliner. Those of
you who are medical professionals are especially at risk.
The world economy will sink
into a recession. You will need to be defensive. Stay invested in cash in a
hard currency. Own some gold. Take a look at an ETF that I love called SWAN. It
is designed to protect you in the event of Black Swan Event. This epidemic is
such an event.
These are trying times!
Be careful out there!
Friday, February 28, 2020
Thursday, February 27, 2020
Wednesday, February 26, 2020
The War Of The Worlds 2020
Let us talk about the Coronavirus. China claims that they have it under
control. I doubt it. They are lying. It is going to devastate their economy. Do
not be surprised to see the Tokyo Olympics cancelled. Way back in 1898 the
great British author H.G Wells wrote The War Of The Worlds. It was about, of
all things, Martians invading the earth. They came with far-superior technology
and weapons to ours. In the end, they were defeated by the germs, viruses, and
microbes found here. The Chinese for all their power and wealth could also be
defeated by a virus.
Tuesday, February 25, 2020
Trying Times For Japan
JAPAN
Trying Times
Established in 1160, Tsuen Tea in Kyoto is perhaps the oldest continually operating tea house in the world. The shop was in a fascinating BBC story that discussed how more than half of humanity’s oldest businesses are in Japan. The story mentioned a hotel that opened its doors in 705 and a candy maker that’s more than 1,000 years old.
Presumably some of those businesses have been through rocky times. They should prepare for more. The world’s third-largest economy is facing big challenges.
Japan’s economy shrank by 1.6 percent last quarter, reported CNN, and some economists warn that a recession appears likely. That’s despite a $120 billion stimulus plan unveiled in December.
The decline occurred as Japan was struggling to address its demographic dilemma. The island nation’s aging population requires costlier and costlier services that have necessitated tax hikes that have potentially hit consumer spending.
“I’m going to stop eating in at convenience stores,” a 20-year-old male student told Nikkei Asian Review, noting that food consumed at convenience store lunch counters would be taxed at 10 percent while items taken out would incur 8 percent in tax. “This was one of the few moments I could relax between school and work, so I’m disappointed.”
Now that student has another reason not to eat out: the new coronavirus. More than 2,500 people have lost their lives in China due to the virus, Al Jazeera reported.
Most of the 400 cases of the virus in Japan were among people on the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship docked in Yokohama. American officials recently evacuated US citizens from the vessel. But other cases have been documented, like the Japanese couple who tested positive for the deadly virus after they took a commercial flight to Hawaii, as KHON2, a Hawaiian television news station, reported.
“The widening fallout from the epidemic, which is damaging output and tourism, could have a significant impact on Japan if it’s not contained in coming months,” wrote Reuters.
Authorities are taking public health measures to limit crowds where people might spread the sickness. Emperor Naruhito canceled his birthday celebrations. The Tokyo Marathon was closed to spectators. Each event had been expected to attract tens of thousands. Large companies have asked employees to work from home.
Japanese officials are working overtime to get a handle on the virus because they are also preparing for the Tokyo Olympics in a few months, an event that is sure to give the economy a much-needed shot in the arm. The games will go on, organizers said. They don’t have a Plan B, the New York Post reported.
Someone is going to make a lot of money selling face masks.
W
Friday, February 21, 2020
Thursday, February 20, 2020
NASA Prepares for New Science Flights Above Coastal Louisiana
NASA Prepares for New Science Flights Above Coastal Louisiana: As sea levels rise, some areas of the Mississippi Delta are drowning while others are actually gaining mass. NASA's Delta-X heads to the delta to figure out why.
Monday, February 17, 2020
Pacifican Wayne Boykin Died After A Car Hit Him While He Was Riding His Bike
Pacifican Wayne Boykin died after a car hit him while he was riding his bike. A swim friend of mine is permanently disabled after a car hit him while he was riding a bike. A bike was my primary means of transportation from September of 1996 to January, 2004. I had some close calls including December 31, 1999 when a bus driver stopped at the last second before hitting me. I never got hit. God was protecting me.
Saturday, February 15, 2020
Hitler Had A Much Higher IQ Than Trump
Actually, there were several Nazis who, despite the stereotype, were quite intelligent. Famed author, William Shirer said that, in his opinion, the most intelligent among Hitler’s inner circle was Dr. Joseph Goebbels. Certainly no one can doubt his genius when it came to propaganda. Shirer also said that Goebbels could discuss practically any topic with ease. Another individual who would concur was actress and producer Leni Riefenstahl.
Riefenstahl was no friend of Goebbels by any stretch, but in her autobiography, she spoke of Goebbels’ chilling ability to coldly size up any situation with absolute clarity. As for IQ, there aren’t any known records of Goebbels having taken an IQ test, but most academics estimated that it was somewhere in the low 140 range, which would put him in the top 1%.
As for Hitler, whom everyone seems to be most interested in, he was considered to be broadly versed (mostly through being self-taught), yet his depth of knowledge was rather shallow and somewhat spotty overall. He was also considered rather one dimensional in terms of his personality and his intellect, whereas someone like Napoleon was not only broadly versed, but also had the depth and was capable of discussing virtually any subject intelligently. Napoleon’s personality was also much more multi-dimensional when compared to Hitler’s. Still, Hitler was quite intelligent. His estimated IQ was somewhere in the 135 - 140 range.
Another individual who was considered quite intelligent was Hjalmar Schacht who oversaw the “Nazi Miracle”, although he never joined the Nazi party, as Hitler’s Minister of Economics. Prior to that, he served as the Currency Commissioner and President of the Reichsbank during the Weimar Republic days. A trained economist, Schacht was also well educated in medicine, languages, and political science (he was a co-founder of the German Democrat Party, who were Center-Left and committed to democracy). During his tenure, he led the “free market” contingent within the Nazi Government until his dismissal.
In 1945, during the Nuremberg Trials, a US Army psychologist by the name of Gustave M. Gilbert was permitted to interview the various defendants in order to access the personalities, motivation, and in the course of doing so, to administer an IQ test. Gilbert, who held the rank of First Lieutenant, had a Doctor in Psychology from Columbia University. As an aside, he was also the son of Jewish-Austrian parents.
Now, in the case of Hjalmar Schacht, his IQ score of 143, which was the highest among the prisoners. The next highest was Arthur Seyss-Inquart, who was part of the Reich General Government in Poland, and then later served as the Reich Commissioner of the Netherlands. His IQ, according to Dr. Gilbert, was 141. Next on the list was Herman Goering, with whom most everyone is familiar. The former WWI ace and head of the Luftwaffe, among other positions, had an IQ of 138. Tied with Goring, was Hitler’s head of the Kriegsmarine and heir to what was left of the Third Reich, Admiral Karl Doenitz with an IQ of 138.
Franz von Papen, the former Prussian aristocrat, officer, Weimar Chancellor, and subsequent Vice-Chancellor under Hitler, whose actions proved to be less intelligent than his IQ of 134 might indicate (he was the minister who told his conservative friends that he could control Hitler—-”We’ve hired him”). A cut above von Papen, but with the same IQ of 134, was Grand Admiral Erich Raeder, who was head of the Kriegsmarine until 1943.
Dr. Hans Frank, Hans Fritsche, and Baldur von Schirach all got the same IQ test results of 130. Frank was a Nazi jurist and Hitler’s personal lawyer. He was also part of the Reich General Government in Poland. Less known to most people was Hans Fritsche who was the Ministerial Director at the Reich Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda (the number two spot under Goebbels). Von Schirach was head of the National Youth Division (HJ and BDM) of the Nazi Party before becoming the Reich Governor of Vienna.
The next three individuals are a little surprising, especially according to Dr. Gilbert. Joachim von Ribbentrop, Hitler’s Foreign Minister and Field Marshal Wilhelm Keitel, Chief of Armed Forces High Command (OKH), had test results of 129 each, which surprised Gilbert. However, what most surprised Gilbert was the results of Albert Speer.
Speer, who was trained as an architect, became the Reich’s Chief Architect following the death of Paul Troost, and Chief of Construction. Speer created some of the most memorable designs of the era, including the spectacular “Cathedral of Lights” show at the 1933 Nuremberg Party Rally, the New Reich Chancellery, the Olympic Stadium, and renovated the Borsig Palace. He later became the Reich Minister of Armaments and War Production. Yet, despite all this, his IQ results were not especially impressive, with a 129 result. Gilbert later commented that he suspected Speer was distracted and didn’t take the test seriously, which in light of his education and accomplishments, is likely true.
As for the others who were tested, I will simply list their names and IQ scores below:
Field Marshall Alfred Jodl 127
Alfred Rosenberg 127
Constantin von Neurath 125
Walther Funk 124
Wilhelm Frick 124
Rudolf Hess 120
Fran Sauckel 118
Robert Ley 115 (estimated)
Ernst Kaltenbrunner 113
Julius Streicher 106
While there were no individuals in the “super genius” range, there were a few who would qualify as “genius” (140+) and “brilliant” or “near genius” (130+). Certainly, most were well above average ( an average IQ is considered to be around 100). If you would like to read more about the results of Dr. Gilbert’s work, I would suggest “The Nuremberg Interviews” by Leon Goldensohn. I suspect you’ll find it very interest
Friday, February 14, 2020
The Curious Case Of The Roger Stone Sentencing Hearing
Now let us talk about the curious case of Roger Stone. In six days he gets sentenced in US District Court in Washington,D.C. for nine criminal charges. The judge to decide his fate is US District Judge Amy Berman Jackson. She is a Harvard law school graduate from Baltimore. She is a special enemy of Donald Trump. He found out that, as an undergraduate, she worked one summer as a bunny at the London Playboy Club. He claimed that this was prima facie evidence that she was involved in prostitution. (I have gone to several Playboy clubs and been at the legendary Playboy mansion in Los Angeles. No blatant prostitution goes on at these venues.)
Most fascinating to me is that Amy and Elena are almost twins when it comes to ideology and outlook on life. I told Elena that if she and Amy met, they would get along famously. If Amy was sick one day, Elena could take her place as judge of the court. She would give the same rulings and sentences as Amy does.
Amy is competent and respected. She gives most defendants bail. She gives very reasonable sentences; often below the low end of the sentencing guidelines. All over the world, any time that a defendant is found guilty of a crime and to be sentenced, the prosecutor makes a sentencing recommendation to a judge. It is the same here, in Brasil, Argentina, South Africa, Singapore, Canada, etc. Sometimes judges follow these recommendations. Most of the time they give a sentence that is lower. Every now and then in an extraordinary case, they give a sentence that is higher.
Amy got a well-drafted 25-page sentencing memorandum from the Assistant US Attorneys in the Roger Stone Case. They recommended that she adhere to the US sentencing guidelines and give Stone and sentence between 7-9 years. Anyone familiar with Amy would figure out quickly that such a harsh sentence was not going to happen. (Every judge in the world has a sentencing pattern that one can use to predict future sentences.) The most probable sentence for Stone would have been 24-30 months. He would go to a low-security jail. He would serve 18 months before release to a halfway house.
Donald Trump panicked when he heard this sentencing recommendation. He ordered Attorney General Barr to write a new sentencing memorandum. It was 4 pages long and poorly-drafted. It recommended a sentence below the sentencing guidelines. This has set off a firestorm of protest. Presidents are not supposed to intervene in an ongoing criminal case. After a defendant is sentenced, a president can commute a sentence or give a convicted defendant a pardon.
If I were Amy, I would be quite angry now. I would sentence Stone to a harsh sentence above the guidelines (say 15-20 years). This would force Trump to issue a sentence commutation or pardon. It would dig Trump deeper into a hole.
Thursday, February 13, 2020
Signs
Signs
Similar to the infamous crop circles, Siberia’s Lake Baikal displays mysterious large “ice rings” during March and April.
For years, this phenomenon has puzzled scientists, with speculations ranging from natural causes to extraterrestrial activities.
A team of researchers, however, confirmed that the rings are actually caused by nature itself, USA Today reported.
Hydrologist Alexei Kouraev and his team wrote in their study that eddies of warmer water swirling under the ice are responsible for the odd circles.
His team drilled holes near the ice rings to measure the temperature and salinity of the water below. They noted that the water in the eddies was two to four degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the surrounding water.
The currents rotate in a clockwise direction and are strongest at their outer edges, thinning the ice above in a distinctive shape, Kouraev explained. He added that the reason why the circles’ centers remained frozen was because the current was weak or absent there.
Ice rings have diameters of about three to four miles and can last for days, or even months.
Aside from aliens, scientists had speculated that methane gas emissions from the lake’s bottom were the reason behind the odd circles.
Lake Baikal is the world’s largest and deepest freshwater lake with a unique variety of fish and freshwater seals.
What Influenced Young Josef Stalin?
Alexander Finnegan, J.D. Law, Marxist Leninist
Stalin was a sweet and sensitive young boy, who loved his mother. His father was abusive to him, and would drink and abuse him. Sadly, his mother would abuse him too.
Stalin was born in Georgia in 1878, the only child of a cobbler, Beso Djugashvili and his wife, Keke. In her memoirs, released from a secret Soviet archive, she detailed how a series of illnesses and accidents left "Soso" - her nickname for Josef - partially crippled, and how he coped with a violent alcoholic father."My Soso was a very sensitive child," said Keke. "As soon as he heard the sound of his father singing balaam-balaam from the street, he'd immediately run to me asking if he could go to our neighbours' until his father fell asleep."Keke recounted how she used her child's love of flowers to encourage him to walk. Holding out a camomile, she would entice him to move towards her.She also wrote about her son's struggle to win a scholarship to the seminary of the Georgian capital, Tiflis, now Tbilisi, to become a student priest.On the train there, where his now estranged father was working, she recounted how her teenage son suddenly began to cry. "Mummy," he said, "what if, when we arrive in the city, father finds me and forces me to become a shoemaker? I want to study. I'd rather kill myself than become a cobbler.""I kissed him and wiped away his tears," she recalled, adding: "Nobody will stop you studying, nobody is going to take you away from me."Keke's memoirs were released by the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili at the request of Simon Sebag Montefiore, whose new book, Young Stalin, is published this month.Stalin later rebelled against his studies, however, and declared himself a revolutionary seeking the end of Tsarist Russia. Following his rise he installed Keke in a Tsarist palace in the Caucasus, but she occupied only one tiny room and died in 1937.[1]
Stalin’s mother
While still the finest choirboy at the church school, Stalin started to show an interest in the plight of the poor and to doubt his faith. He became close friends with three priests’ sons—the brothers Lado and Vano Ketskhoveli, who were to play a vital role in his future life, and Mikheil Davitashvili, * who, like Stalin, walked with a limp. The elder Ketskhoveli brother, Lado, soon entered the Tiflis Seminary and brought back news of how he had led a protest and strike that led to his being sent down. Stalin was inspired by these new friends and their books, but he still saw the priesthood as his vocation to help the poor. Now, however, he aspired to politics for the first time. Under Lado Ketskhoveli’s charismatic influence, he declared he wanted to be a local administrator with the power to improve conditions.He talked about books all the time. If he coveted a volume, he was happy to steal it from another schoolboy and run home with it. When he was about thirteen, Lado Ketskhoveli took him to a little bookshop in Gori where he paid a five kopeck subscription and borrowed a book that was probably Darwin’s Origin of Species. Stalin read it all night, forgetting to sleep, until Keke found him.“Time to go to bed,” she said. “Go to sleep—dawn is breaking.”“I loved the book so much, Mummy, I couldn’t stop reading . . .” As his reading intensified, his piety wavered.One day Soso and some friends, including Grisha Glurjidze, lay on the grass in town talking about the injustice of there being rich and poor when he amazed all of them by suddenly saying: “God’s not unjust, he doesn’t actually exist. We’ve been deceived. If God existed, he’d have made the world more just.”“Soso! How can you say such things?” exclaimed Grisha.“I’ll lend you a book and you’ll see.” He presented Glurjidze with a copy of Darwin.
Special thanks to Hersh Bortman for finding this wonderful excerpt.
Footnotes
Tuesday, February 11, 2020
Monday, February 10, 2020
Updated Aug 6, 2018 · Upvoted by Will Bentley, Retired USMC after 28 years: service as officer and enlisted, active and reserve and Anthony Ricci, 12 years USMC, 10 Navy, 3 Army: 1st Gulf War, OIF-06/07
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