Some Hard Facts About The Ukraine, Russia, and the US

 Are these people so abysmally ignorant of history, geography, economics and the wherewithal of a true national security threat that they think the map below is worth WWIII?

Ukraine has never had stable borders, nor has it been a longstanding independent nation state. In fact, for hundreds of years under the czars and commissars alike, Ukraine was at best a vassal state and mostly a provincial satrapy of Moscow. Its current borders were actually drawn to precision by Communist apparatchiks during the Soviet era and thereafter embraced by the Kiev government that emerged in 1991 when the Soviet Union suddenly evaporated.

Ukraine’s history can be summarized as follows:

• 700 or so years as a meandering set of borders in search of a country (1200 AD to 1922);
• 69 years as an administrative appendage of totalitarian Soviet rulers in Moscow, who purged Tartars and replanted Russians in the eastern regions along the way;
• 23 years as a happenstance nation-state that fell into existence when the biggest and most evil empire in history collapsed overnight (1991–2014); and
• 7 years as a pretext for Washington interventionists, neocons and anti-Trump Dems to rekindle cold war fears, the better to keep hideously swollen national security budgets firmly in place.

Yet these Foxified Republican pols and neocons blather on about "weakness" and phony threats to our national security. Let’s see the extent of that threat.

The GDP of the New York City metro area is about $1.7 trillion, which is well more than Russia’s 2020 GDP of $1.6 trillion. And that, in turn, is just 7% of America’s $22 trillion GDP.

In terms of manufacturing output Russia’s annual manufacturing value added is currently (2020) about $197 billion, which amounts to just 8% of the $2.35 trillion figure for the US economy.

Basically, Russia’s economy cannot support a military establishment anywhere near to that of Imperial Washington. To wit, its $65 billion of military outlays in 2020 amounted to less than 32 days of Washington’s current $755 billion of expenditures for defense.

It may well be asked how Russia could remotely threaten homeland security in America short of what would be a suicidal nuclear first strike.

Recall the remnant of the Soviet strategic weapons arsenal at Putin’s disposal today amounts to 4,500 operational nuclear warheads, of which under two-fifths are actually deployed. That compares to 4,600 nuclear weapons in the US arsenal with a similar fraction actually deployed.

Accordingly, what exists on the nuclear front is a state of mutual deterrence (MAD) — the arrangement by which we got through 45 years of Cold War when the Kremlin was run by a totalitarian oligarchy committed to a hostile ideology; and during which time it had been armed to the teeth via a forced-draft allocation of upwards of 40% of the GDP of the Soviet empire to the military.

Canada-Much Ado About Something

 

Much Ado About Something

CANADA

School officials forced third-grade teacher Fatemeh Anvari out of her classroom at Chelsea Elementary School in Quebec because she wore a hijab. Anvari didn’t lose her job, per se. She was reassigned to an inclusion-and-diversity literacy program.

Her students were, nonetheless, confounded. The school’s motto is “Respect for all, by all,” wrote the Washington Post. They wear anti-bullying T-shirts that read, “We help. We tell. We include.” When they realized that a Quebecois law called Bill 21 prohibits public employees from wearing religious symbols – this includes turbans, yarmulke and Islamic head coverings like the hijab – the furor that was unleashed in online chat groups and email chains led to a campaign against the law.

“It was just awful, really upsetting,” said Kirsten Taylor-Bosman, whose child attends Anvari’s class, in an interview with the Radio Canada International. “These are not the values that we teach our children. So it’s really hard to explain this to our kids.”

Writing in the Hill Times, Rose LeMay, a member of Canada’s Tlingit First Nation, an indigenous community, noted that the law echoed early 20th Century rules that forbid them from wearing traditional dress because they were supposed to be “civilized” and dress like Europeans.

Bill 21 was among the first legislation passed when Quebec Premier François Legault took office. The legislation ostensibly was designed to promote secularism – the Catholic Church once wielded an outsized influence in the province – but critics like those at the Manitoba Association for Rights and Liberties argue it aims to discriminate against non-Christian racial and ethnic minorities.

A conservative who supports the independence of French-speaking Quebec from otherwise English-speaking Canada, he said the school made a mistake when they hired Anvari after the law was enacted in 2019, according to Global News. The school board agreed with the premier even if they disagreed with the law. They erred in hiring her without asking what she wore.

The matter could become a wedge issue between Quebec and the rest of the country. If Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has repeatedly voiced his commitments to diversity but has yet to challenge Bill 21, or the federal courts invalidate the law, the Quebecois could view those moves as unwelcome meddling in their internal affairs, argued iPolitics, a Canadian news outlet.

Sixty-four percent of Quebecois are “perfectly content” to compel folks to choose between their religion and their profession, the Globe and Mail added.

Every community has the right to enforce its norms. In democracies, every person has the right to complain about it – and challenge them.

Iran Is Using Trump Political Tactics In Iraq

 

IRAQ

Iraq’s top court validated October’s elections results Monday, dealing a blow to the powerful pro-Iran political factions that had challenged the outcome of the polls, the Wall Street Journal reported.

In its ruling, the Federal Supreme Court rejected an appeal by Iran-backed factions, which demanded the nullification of the election results over alleged voter fraud. The pro-Iran parties and their armed allies had lost significant ground in the elections.

The court said nullifying the election results was outside its jurisdiction but acknowledged a few irregularities in the polls: It advised against using an electronic count system in the future.

The verdict comes amid rising tensions in the country, with protesters demonstrating outside the courthouse against the election results. Some also chanted against the country’s current leader, Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.

Following the decision, lawmakers will now have two weeks to form a majority coalition in parliament and then select a new parliamentary speaker and prime minister. The new government will then decide on the future of American forces based in the country to help fight against Islamic State militants, as well as navigate a geopolitical struggle between the United States and Iran.

The October elections placed Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in the lead. He has vowed to create a new government free from influence from both the US and Iran. Analysts said that it’s unlikely that Sadr will seek office but noted that he will remain an important powerbroker.

Even so, Sadr faces fierce competition from other Shiite rivals and Iran supporters.

A Sad Start To Christmas

 Here in Northern California, two people drowned in Millbrae yesterday. They drove into an underpass flooded with water. They died before the police could rescue them.

We Are Facing A Huge Natural Gas Crisis

 

Here's How the Energy Crisis Turns Into Hunger and Then... War?

by Chris MacIntosh

We have previously warned about a whopping food crisis and supply problems in the fertilizer market. Well, now is worse because that was BEFORE we had the natural gas crisis. Why is that important?

Natural gas is THE critical input into making fertilizer. Urea is essentially ammonia in solid state, the process of which entails reacting ammonia with CO2. And we all now know — thanks to the climate nazis — that CO2 is currently the devil. The problem of course is that with no natural gas there is no urea, and with no urea there is no fertilizer. And with no fertilizer… well, we will eat each other.

Here are the spot urea prices.

Something else that we had noted some time back (in Korea) but which now seems like a larger problem.

Here is an article about an Australian farmer who warns the urea supply crisis could halt normal life within weeks.

Here’s what he says:

‘Not only will we not be able to grow cattle and we will not be able to grow food and we will not be able to grow grain or anything like that, but even if we could, we can’t move it, because we can’t turn a wheel in a truck because we have no Adblue,’ [AdBlue is needed for diesel vehicles — half of all trucks on Australian roads run on diesel.

As of February we might not have a truck on the road in Australia, we might not have a train on the tracks.

‘So quite literally the whole country comes to a standstill as of February.’

The farmer then, goes on to say:

‘Go and have a look in your cupboard and go and have a look in your fridge and I guarantee just about every single item there, at some point, urea has been used to produce that item, whether it’s a steak or a salad or a can of baked beans.

Moving to Europe, we have a full blown energy crisis unfolding there, made worse by increasingly more destructive policies by the pointy shoes (let’s produce more solar and wind when it’s proven to be both inadequate and massively costly) and a supply chain crisis.

Take a look at European energy prices.

So here we’re now witnessing the beginnings of what promises to be a storm. Think cold and hungry and you’ve got the right picture.

That electricity comes largely from natural gas, and that natural gas comes from those pesky Russkies.

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Canada-A Worldwide Shortage Of Maple Syrup

 

Sticky, Sweet and Beloved

CANADA

Canada’s province of Quebec tapped into its emergency maple syrup reserve this month amid increasing demand for the beloved product and an ongoing global supply shortage, Fortune Magazine reported.

The Quebec Maple Syrup Producers association said this is the first time in three years that they have turned to their emergency supply. The organization explained that the move came as the global sale of maple syrup rose by almost 37 percent in the last year.

The province is responsible for nearly three-quarters of the world’s maple syrup production: In 2021, the world produced 182 million pounds of maple syrup with Quebec accounting for 133 million pounds.

The organization said the shortage is the result of a shortened harvest caused by the warming climate: This year’s spring season – when maple trees are tapped for their sap – was warmer than usual. For the trees to provide syrup, the weather must be just above freezing during the day, and below freezing at night.

The QMSP said that production this year dropped by about 42 million pounds, from last year’s record high of 175 million pounds.

Even so, the association noted that there is no reason to panic about supplies running completely dry: It is in the process of creating about seven million new tree taps over the course of three years to compensate for the rising global demand.

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Russia-Ukraine: Cards On The Table

 

Cards on the Table

RUSSIA/ UKRAINE

Russia issued a series of demands for security guarantees from NATO over the weekend in an effort to limit the alliance’s role in Ukraine and other former Soviet states, the Moscow Times reported.

The demands came amid soaring tensions at the Ukrainian border over the past few weeks after Russia mobilized thousands of soldiers in what the Western defense bloc believes is a prelude to an invasion.

According to the demands, the Kremlin is asking NATO to call off all military activities not just in Ukraine but also in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus region and Central Asia. This would include a legally binding guarantee that NATO will block future membership for any former Soviet republic, including Ukraine.

Moscow also asked the United States and NATO to refrain from establishing new military bases in former Soviet countries, and from deploying troops to Eastern Europe without Russian consent. The latter demand would effectively ban NATO from sending troops to alliance members including Poland and the Baltic nations.

Meanwhile, Russia wants NATO to reaffirm that the two “do not consider each other adversaries” and that they will “resolve all disputes peacefully and refrain from the use of force.”

US officials said that they were willing to discuss the proposals. They added that they wouldn’t start talks without input from Europe.

Meanwhile, the European Union criticized the Kremlin’s attempt to block Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO and threatened “massive consequences and severe costs” for Russia if the country decides to invade Ukraine.

Even so, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said that it is “highly unlikely” that Britain and its allies will send troops to defend Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion, according to the BBC.

Analysts said the demands would shake the balance of power in Europe and doubted that the West would agree to meet them.

They explained that the security proposals are “a bargaining position” and could “shape negotiations in the shadow of a looming military threat to Ukraine and, by extension, to Europe.”

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A Friday Night Of Fun And Escape From Our Cares

 

Something rare happened yesterday evening. Elena and I went out and just had fun. We ate dinner at an Italian restaurant that we love in Redwood City. We then drove to Eucalyptus Avenue in San Carlos. We witnessed a huge show of Christmas lights on the various houses. It was stunning! Have a look at my Facebook timeline. It was packed with happy people. We had some precious time to forget things like:

1) Tax declarations

2)  Bills to be paid

3)  Christmas matters

4) Investment performance

5) The polarized politics in this country.

6)  Covid-19 and the various variants.

    All of us need wonderful moments like this!

Germany-Killing The Messenger-Anti Vaxers Turn To Deadly Violence

 

Killing the Messengers

GERMANY

German police arrested a half dozen individuals and confiscated weapons during raids this week after members of a radical anti-vaccination group allegedly plotted to assassinate the governor of the eastern state of Saxony, NPR reported.

The raids in the eastern cities of Dresden and Heidenau came after members of the “Dresden Offlinevernetzung” – or Dresden offline network – had discussed killing state premier Michael Kretschmer on the online platform Telegram.

Authorities arrested five members and one woman, and found a number of weapons and a crossbow after searching residences and workplaces, according to the Washington Post.

Police said the suspects were preparing “a severe anti-state violent crime,” adding that the individuals rejected immunization and current anti-coronavirus measures.

Germany is facing resistance over new Covid-19 regulations and plans to make vaccinations mandatory for people working in hospitals, nursing homes and other medical institutions beginning in March.

Alongside Kretschmer, other politicians and health officials – including the country’s head of infectious diseases – have faced death threats.

Many anti-vaccination activists and pandemic deniers have been organizing via Telegram, prompting Interior Minister Nancy Faeser to threaten the company if it didn’t comply with German regulations on hate speech.

Meanwhile, new Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned the new radical movements and warned that Germany “will not put up with a tiny minority of uninhibited extremists trying to force their will on our entire society.”

"Red States Are Getting Hit Much Harder By Covid-19 Deaths As Opposed To Other Areas Of The US

 

‘Needlessly’

In the U.S., partisanship is the biggest factor determining vaccination rates. If Democratic voters made up their own country, it would be one of the world’s most vaccinated, with more than 91 percent of adults having received at least one shot. Only about 60 percent of Republican adults have done so.

This vaccination gap has created a huge gap in death rates, one that has grown sharply during the second half of the year.

The chart below is based on data from Charles Gaba, a health care analyst who has split the country into 10 equally sized groups. The Trump line refers to the one-tenth of Americans who live in counties that voted most heavily for Trump last year, while the Biden line is the equivalent for the president’s best counties. The line labeled “swing” describes counties where each candidate won at least 45 percent of the votes:

December data is an estimate based on the month’s first two weeks.Source: Charles Gaba

One telling detail is that Covid deaths in both swing counties and heavily Biden counties have not risen over the past two months, even as nationwide case numbers have surged. In heavily vaccinated communities, rising caseloads don’t automatically lead to rising death tolls.

In hundreds of U.S. counties, though, most adults still have not received a Covid vaccine shot. “Just since this summer, 150,000 unvaccinated Americans have needlessly lost their lives despite the widespread availability of vaccines,” Dr. Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine, in Houston, said yesterday.

Vaccine skepticism stems in part from messages on social media and conservative outlets like Fox News, the Sinclair Broadcast Group and talk radio. Pundits on these platforms often stop short of telling people not to get vaccinated, even as they send a general negative message about the shots.

They criticize vaccine mandates, sensationalize rare side effects and describe vaccination as a personal choice. They certainly do not deliver the clear message that scientists and Democratic politicians have: Get vaccinated, please, as soon as possible.

The fact that many of conservative pundits are vaccinated themselves would make a pro-vaccine message from them even stronger. It would surely be more persuasive than anything that President Biden, Anthony Fauci, Rochelle Walensky or a New York Times journalist could say.

Biden, at the White House yesterday, tried his best, saying, “We are looking at a winter of severe illness and death if you’re unvaccinated.”

The Two Greatest Battles That History Has Forgotten

 

Dale Osborne

Armchair Strategist and History nerdDec 1

What is the greatest battle that history has 'forgotten'?

Two Contenders come to mind.

The Battle of Ain Jalut in 1260 where the Mongol Horde was defeated for the first time by mameluke cavalry and the first major battlefield use of primitive firearms.

The other Is Operation Ichi Go the Largest Japanese offensive in WW2:

The Japanese army understood by 1944 that unless China could be knocked out of the war and troops redeployed to fight America Japan could not win the war. The orders were to seek victory or death. At the height of the fighting many Chinese and Japanese Units ran out of ammunition and were forced to fight hand to hand.

The Operation was tactically a bloodbath in terms of casualties with over half a million soldiers killed; operationally successful in that most objectives were taken including the vital north-south railway linking Korea to Vietnam through China and a total strategic failure in that the Soviet Invasion of Manchuria cut the line in the North while US bombing destroyed the railway in south and central China. It Also fatally wounded the Chinese Nationalist Army paving the way for the later Communist takeover.

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