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Thursday, March 31, 2022

Russkiy Mir- Russia/s Quagmire In Ukraine

 

Russkiy Mir

RUSSIA

Artur and Vsevolod fled to Istanbul, Turkey from their hometown of Moscow fearing that they might face conscription into the Russian military as the country’s brutal but botched invasion of Ukraine continues.

“The atmosphere of fear in Russia is unprecedented,” said Vsevolod, whose name was changed to protect his identity, in an interview with the Guardian. “There’s no draft right now but there’s activity. The military networks are active. Whether this is intimidation or preparation for a draft I don’t know.”

The two men are among numerous Russians who have fled their country for the Turkish city. Recently, reported Forbes, high-ranking Russian official Anatoly Chubais fled to Istanbul with his family in protest against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Chubais, who oversaw Russia’s post-Soviet reforms, was his country’s climate change envoy.

Such defections show how life within Russia could be souring some Russians’ image of Putin. As many as 200,000 Russians have left their country since the start of the war. Around 25,000 Russians have traveled to the former Soviet republic of Georgia (which Russia invaded in 2008.) “Many can be seen wandering around the capital, Tbilisi, with their suitcases and often even their pets,” wrote the BBC.

Many of these travelers don’t want to be associated with a regime that indiscriminately bombs a neighbor’s cities. Others said that life in Russia was becoming materially worse due to severe Western sanctions while civil society was coarsening due to Putin’s crackdown on human rights.

“The country faces a shortage of medicine and other basic supplies, laws against freedom of speech have been introduced and numerous social networks have been blocked,” reported Spanish news agency EFE.

On the other end of the scale, main shopping streets in Moscow and elsewhere often with luxury brands such as Dior are almost deserted as hundreds of Western brands pulled out of the country and closed their stores.

Western tech companies have pulled out of Russia, too, undercutting its digital infrastructure, while Putin has erected barriers to keep Russians from accessing websites outside the country. Human Rights Watch warned that Russians were in danger of being isolated without any legitimate or useful news or information. This week, the last independent newspaper in Russia, Novaya Gazeta, suspended operations after getting a second warning from Russian communications regulators. Even so, US-funded RFE/RL recently reported a surge of traffic from Russians using VPNs after it most suspended operations because of Russian government pressure.

Still, the propaganda goes on. Putin recently attended a concert, for example, in Luzhniki stadium to mark the eighth anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. Behind him appeared a flag that said “For a world without Nazism,” perpetuating the falsehood that fascists run the Ukrainian government, noted CNN. No dissent from the pro-war spectacle was allowed, of course.

Putin has a large swathe of supporters regardless of what is being said on the country’s broadcast media or online. But fed a steady diet of propaganda, many Russians within Russia are more worried about their daily lives than the government even as they don’t know the full scope of the tragedy that has unfurled in Ukraine, Vox added.

They only know that something feels very wrong.

Putin felt that, too, eight years ago, when he spoke of the concept of the “divided” Russian world (Russkiy Mir) as justification for annexing Ukraine’s Crimea. He said it’s a civilization that has to be protected from external forces such as the West, the German Council on Foreign Relations noted.

With thousands of Russians contributing to a growing “brain drain,” it’s clear this isn’t a world many want to live in.


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Putin's Domestic Partner And Four Children Are "Missing In Action"

       I'm always out there looking for the incredible story that normal media sources miss. A big mystery of Putin's life is his domestic partner and the children that he has had with the new woman in his life (from 2013). His partner is named Alina Kabaeva. She is roughly 39 years of age. In her early life, she had a distinguished career as a gymnast. She and Putin have four children together. If you want to go in-depth, here is a great article that launched my research:

 

https://pagesix.com/2022/03/06/vladimir-putin-hiding-alina-kabaeva-kids-in-switzerland/

   

     Now it gets truly fascinating. Serious sources say that she is living in a luxury villa somewhere in Switzerland. Numerous petitions have been launched in Switzerland to expel her from the country. The Swiss government claims that they have no record of her being there.

    Putin's family would require the most stringent security. It would be easy for Alina and the children to arrive in Switzerland with diplomatic passports under other names. This would make an expulsion problematic.

     There would be fear of kidnapping and other reprisals if the whereabouts of Putin's family were discovered. Rest assured that the family is well guarded.

      Now a big "red flag" comes up. Putin is one of the wealthiest men in the world. He has numerous very secure residences inside Russia. His most luxurious property has 190,000 square feet (In comparison the US White House and Bill Gates' mansion near Seattle each have 55,000 square feet.)

    Putin is secretive and opaque. We do not know details of his family like people in the US would know about the president and his or her family.

    Let us assume that I am an analyst at some civilian or military intelligence agency that acquires this information. Immediately the question "why" comes to mind.

     The most probable answer is that Putin knew that a most dangerous situation was arising with the Ukraine war. Putin knew that he was going to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. In the best-case scenario, the "shock and awe" of such a move would have frightened the US away from retaliating with its B61 tactical nuclear warheads. In the worst case, the U.S. would return fire with tactical nuclear weapons. Then things would get very dangerous. He wanted his family safe from nuclear fallout and other problems that would arise with such a limited nuclear exchange.

    Please be thankful that I am not reporting that Putin's wife and family took up residence in places like Cape Town, South Africa, Hobart, Tasmania (Australia), Queenstown, South Island, New Zealand, Chilean Patagonia, or Argentina, Patagonia. This would indicate that Putin was expecting a full-scale nuclear war between the US, Europe, and Russia.

    I do not traffic in conspiracy theories. Please reflect on my comments. Please draw your own conclusions.

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Putin Could See Moscow Fall In 6 Months

 


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Tom Boggioni.

In an interview with journalist Kara Swisher for the New York Times, Clint Watts, a research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, claims Russian President Vladimir Putin has a growing disaster on his hands after invading Ukraine and it could lead to a collapse at home in Russia.

Watts, who served in the U.S Army and went on to be recruited by the FBI to assist in combating terrorism, claims the unpopularity of the war among Russian citizens will continue to grow and, combined with the sanctions that are already crippling the country's economy, may threaten his tenure as leader of Russia.

The former FBI official explained that Putin won't be able to disguise the war dead, which will continue to grow because the Ukrainians are putting up such a stiff resistance that Putin -- and his generals -- appear to have not anticipated.

"He’s got a disaster on his hands, for a couple reasons," Watts told Swisher. "Militarily, even if he is successful, he’s taking casualties. That will filter back home. You cannot disinformation your way out of 10,000 dead. It’s just not possible. And you’re going to have war-wounded. The mothers in Russia have always been the pushback against Putin during these conflicts. This is going to be next-level scale."

Pointing out that it is hard to occupy a country, the analyst suggested Putin will be unsuccessful at installing a compliant government that will be able to control the populace, meaning the Russians will need an unsustainable 800,000 soldiers to tamp down an insurgency that Watts predicts "won't go away."

Add to that, dissatisfaction over the collapsing economy and the crippling sanctions that are also afflicting Russian oligarchs could lead to Putin's downfall.

"This will not settle down at home," he stated before going into greater detail. "And for those that have had the open markets, the open economy, you know, more open economy, more open information space — when these things start trickling and shutting off, you’re going to see two things. One, those that can flee will. Who are those that flee? Those with money. And those that stay, there’s going to be fights and wars. And so my big worry is that we’re worried about Kyiv falling today. I’m worried about Moscow falling between day 30 and six months from now."

"He’s going to throw everything at the wall to try and convince Russians that things are going well, that the war was justified. And if he gets into trouble or the West really mounts a coordinated defense, he’s going to say, look, they’re doing it to us. I have to defend us. It’s defensive. It’s defensive. And will they buy that? I don’t know. I think it’s starting to break," he added.

You can listen to the podcast or read more here.

'He's got a disaster on his hands': Expert says Putin could see Moscow fall within six months
In an interview with journalist Kara Swisher for the New York Times, Clint Watts, a research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, claims Russian President Vladimir Putin has a growing disaster on his hands after invading Ukraine and it could lead to a collapse at home in Russia.Watts, wh...

Ukraine Captures Major Russian Tank Battalion Commander

 


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Laura Widener.

The Ukrainian military claimed on Saturday to have captured the commanders and chief of staff of Russia’s tank battalion, 35th Motor Rifle Brigade, and provided photo evidence.

Russian Major Schetkin Leonid Petrovich, along with his photo identification, military insignia and other personal belongings were photographed in Ukrainian custody and the photos shared by Ukraine’s Operational Command North.

The Ukrainian military said Petrovich was captured after Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian tank unit, in which Petrovich “miraculously survived.”

The capture marks the highest-ranking Russian forces captured by Ukraine so far.

Video shared to social media by the Ukrainian military shows numerous charred tanks in the aftermath of an attack.

On Thursday, the top Ukrainian commander wrote in a statement that “Russian invaders” from Russia’s 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade surrendered to “Ukrainian defenders.”

“Russian invaders, facing the total resistance of Ukrainian defenders, surrender themselves to captivity. Under Chernihiv, a whole intelligence unit of 74 motorcycle rifle brigade surrendered,” the Ukrainian commander stated, adding that the Russian soldiers “thought they would return home” and that they were “collecting information” instead of fighting.

During a press briefing, Ukraine Ambassador Markarova also confirmed the surrender, saying the Russian troops “didn’t know that they were brought to Ukraine to kill Ukrainians. That they thought they were doing something else there.”

As of Saturday, Ukraine said they’d imprisoned 200 Russian troops, and imprisoned 200, saying the Russian troops didn’t expect Ukraine to put up a fight, so they surrendered.

Ukraine claimed on Sunday that in the first three days of battle, it killed 4,300 Russian forces, destroyed 27 airplanes, 26 helicopters, 146 tanks, 706 armored vehicles, and more.

As of Saturday, Ukraine’s health minister also claimed that 198 Ukrainians were killed, including three children, by invading Russian forces, and another 1,000 people were wounded.

U.N. officials said that more than 150,000 Ukrainians had fled Ukraine, and an estimated 4 million could evacuate if the fighting continues.

On Saturday, the U.S. Department of Defense said in the previous 24 hours, it had observed “more than 250 Russian missile launches, mostly short-range ballistic missiles.” Additionally, it said more than half of Russia’s 150,000 troops amassed around Ukraine had been mobilized inside Ukraine, with the rest still waiting along its borders.

On Friday, President Joe Biden authorized $350 million worth of U.S. weaponry to Ukraine, including anti-armor, small arms, various munitions, body armor and similar equipment. With the latest installment, the U.S. has now provided Ukraine with $1 billion in security assistance over the past year alone.

Germany also provided anti-tank grenade launchers and stinger missiles to Ukraine over the weekend.

Ukraine captures Russian tank battalion commander
The Ukrainian military claimed on Saturday to have captured the commanders and chief of staff of Russia’s tank battalion, 35th Motor Rifle Brigade, and
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