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Thursday, April 5, 2018

Ordering Opioids On Line From China

Ordering Five Million Deaths Online

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Bags of heroin, some laced with fentanyl, were displayed at a press conference after a major drug bust in New York in 2016.CreditDrew Angerer/Getty Images
Medicare officials have announced plans to crack down on prescriptionsfor opioids in an attempt to limit their use and thus their damage. But making it harder for people to get pain medication legally will most likely drive many to seek relief from far more dangerous and superpotent synthetic opioids. And they are surprisingly easy to obtain.
Recently, out of curiosity, I typed into Google the terms “synthetic opioid and Chinese pharmacy.” Within minutes, I found a website where I could purchase the synthetic opioid carfentanil. For just $750, I could buy 100 grams of the drug, which would be shipped to me “overnight by discreet courier.”
Carfentanil is 100 times more potent than fentanyl, another synthetic opioid that has already hit the streets, and 10,000 times more powerful than morphine. This drug is typically used to sedate large animals, like elephants. It is so dangerous that when veterinarians administer it, they wear gloves and face masks to avoid exposure.
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A woman is comforted by her sister as she holds a picture of her son, who died from an accidental overdose of carfentanil. She was attending an event in Washington, D.C., held to draw attention to the opioid crisis.CreditAlex Wong/Getty Images
Fentanyl is scary enough. A dose of two milligrams — a few grains of the substance — can be fatal. But with carfentanil, 0.02 milligrams — hardly more than a speck of dust — could be enough to kill a person. That means that for $750, I could in theory purchase enough carfentanil for five million fatal overdoses.
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Americans are by far the largest consumers of the world’s natural and synthetic opioids, and 116 of us are dying every day as a result. Carfentanil could unleash a wave of mortality that would dwarf these numbers.
The drug naloxone, which can reverse prescription opioid and heroin overdoses, may not be effective against potent synthetics. So there may be no way to stop these new opioids from killing people.
We are just beginning to see the leading edge of the synthetic opioid epidemic. For example, in Ohio, fentanyl-related deaths surged from 75 in 2012 to 1,155 in 2015. Although synthetic opioids are relatively easy to make in back-alley labs, a majority of them are coming illegally into the United States from China, where the chemical and pharmaceutical industries are poorly regulated.
China is the world’s largest exporter of active pharmaceutical ingredients, with more than 160,000 chemical companies operating legally and illegally. President Trump, who is not afraid to flex his muscles, should apply a stiff tariff on all Chinese pharmaceuticals to encourage the government to crack down on the production of illegal drugs.
It will be hard, if not impossible, to shut down the supply, but we have to try.
On the demand side, we can do things to try to prevent addiction. But the new Medicare guidelines, which cover disabled individuals and those 65 and older, would only make things worse.
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They would deny coverage to any patient taking more than 90 milligrams of morphine or the pharmacologic equivalent daily for more than seven days, except for those with cancer or in hospice (an exemption from this guideline is possible but burdensome). The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services estimate that some 1.6 million Medicare beneficiaries are prescribed opioids that meet or exceed this arbitrary threshold, so the change, if it goes into effect as planned next January, will suddenly put a very large number of people at risk of severe opioid withdrawal and the return of pain and suffering. This could well drive many of them to synthetic opioids.
Instead, we need a rational drug policy both to rein in the excessive prescribing of opioids and to help the people who are already dependent on them.
First, we need a national prescription database. The state-level databases that we have now are not enough. They allow clinicians to identify patients who “doctor shop” and are high consumers of opioids, but patients can still fill their prescriptions in nearby states, and no one is the wiser.
We also have to deal with doctors who contribute to the epidemic. The Drug Enforcement Administration, using that national prescription database, should identify clinicians, particularly those who aren’t pain specialists, who are outliers in their opioid prescribing patterns, review their treatments and clamp down on inappropriate and excessive prescribing.
This is tricky; we do not want to discourage doctors from adequately treating pain out of fear of legal sanction. But those who adhere to current standards of care should have little to fear.
Finally, reasonable drug policy has to take account of the fact that opioid-dependent individuals have different levels of tolerance, which means there cannot be a one-size-fits-all guideline, like the Medicare proposal, to limit prescribing.
To be sure, there is solid evidence that nonopioid treatments are safer and just as effective as opioids for certain types of chronic pain — and it’s critical that we improve pain education for all health care professionals so this becomes common knowledge.
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Iceland: Thor's Battle

Thor’s Battle

For the first time, Iceland’s national soccer team will be competing in the final stages of the World Cup this year in Russia, prompting cartoonist Hugleikur Dagsson to commemorate the event with a T-shirt of the team’s iconic Viking clap and its battle cry “Hú.”
But Dagsson’s homage to Iceland fans is being hit with the rulebook: “Hú” has already been trademarked, the Iceland Monitor reported.
Back in 2016, a variation of the battle cry, “Húh,” was trademarked by local sports trainer Gunnar Thor Andresson, who argued the print on Dagsson’s T-shirt was too close to the spelling of his trademark, according to the Iceland Review.
Iceland’s trademark office sided with Andresson and ruled that his trademark covered both variations. The authority ordered Dagsson to cease printing his T-shirts or else pay royalties.
Not pleased with this turn of events, Dagsson took the matter to Facebook, arguing that the battle cry of the Icelandic people shouldn’t be owned by a single individual.
And after all, he argued, Andresson’s trademark isn’t even grammatically correct – the Icelandic language never adds the letter “h” to the end of words.
Despite the threats, Dagsson still plans to sell the shirts and donate half the profits to the Icelandic Cancer Society.

Iran: The Long Game

IRAN

The Long Game

Iran has been playing a long game behind the scenes.
Iranian operatives have built up proxies in the Middle East using the same model that created Hezbollah, a militant political party in Lebanon that the United States and others consider a terrorist group, wrote Ranj Alaaldin, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center, in the New York Times.
Iranian-backed fighters exercise significant control in Iraq and Syria, he argued. When the civil wars and fights against the Islamic State wind down in those countries, those fighters will remain, potentially reshaping the political landscape of the Middle East.
Saudi officials told Euronews that Iranian leaders also want to keep Yemen as a failed state. Saudi Arabia is now fighting Iranian-supported Shiite militias near Yemen’s southern border. An unstable Yemen is good for Iran’s cold war against the desert kingdom.
At the same time, the US Department of Justice recently accused nine Iranians of hacking hundreds of universities, private companies and government offices on behalf of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
“The hackers targeted innovations and intellectual property from our country’s greatest minds,” said Geoffrey S. Berman, US attorney for the Southern District of New York, in a statement.
Citing the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s research on Iranian cyberespionage, former CIA officer Christopher Burgess suggested in an article in CSO that the data breach was routine business for Iranian officials who have decided that hacking is the best way to bypass sanctions that block their country from accessing Western technology.
It’s not clear if hackers helped Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif bypass his country’s official ban against Twitter so that he could have a presence on social media. But he’s using special software to do so in a sign of his interest in exerting influence online, Al-Monitor said.
The most serious covert Iranian machinations have yet to bear fruit, however.
Iran might be respecting the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), reached with former US President Barack Obama and other countries that stopped its research on nuclear weapons. But hardliners in Iran today are surely preparing their case to start building a nuke immediately if President Donald Trump scraps the deal, said Foreign Policy.
“The hard-liners’ skepticism of diplomacy and resistance to compromise is partly rooted in their belief that no Iranian compromise can change Washington’s hostility to Tehran,” Foreign Policy wrote.
Trump’s appointment of John Bolton as national security advisor makes the scrapping even more likely, CNBC explained.
It’s debatable whether Iran’s machinations reflect its weaknesses or its strengths. Either way, those in Tehran are making chess moves.

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

The Pony Express Was Short-Lived And Costly

The Pony Express Was Short-Lived And Costly

The service only lasted 18 months, but became an important icon of the West

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Watercolor illustration of a pony express rider (Corbis)
After gold was discovered in California and people rushed to the soon-to-be state, communication across the vastness of America became a pressing priority. As a result, three business men, William Russell, Alexander Majors and William Waddell, who held government contracts to deliver military supplies to the West, saw an opportunity to improve mail delivery. On April 14, 1860, the very first mail delivered via the Pony Express reached San Francisco, just 11 days after it left St. Joseph, Mo. That makes today the 155th anniversary of that first ride, a fact that Google remembers with its Doodle. 
The Pony Express, a chain of horses and riders stretching across the country, built a legacy that lasts today as part of our perception of the classic Wild West. 
“The fact that [the mail] came in 10 days, instead of a month or in a month and a half, that was the excitement,“ Nancy Pope, historian and head curator for the Smithsonian’s National Postal Museum, told Tess Danielson, writing for the Christian Science Monitor. “In that era, it was suddenly like e-mail was born over letter writing. We don’t have to wait this huge length of time to get that information and it’s now coming very, very quickly.”
But the iconic riders only carried the West’s mail for 18 months and was “a financial disaster,” Danielson writes. Competition from a national telegraph wire quickly made the riders outdated. 
Plus, “it hemorrhaged money from the first day,” author Christopher Corbett told Vox. “It was a bit of a madcap idea from the get-go ... the structure of the business was deeply flawed.”
The Pony Express never made a profit because it didn’t manage to secure a government contract for delivering letters, reports Phil Edwards for Vox. Plus, the Paiute War came at a bad time for the fledgling service. Edwards writes:
Some ledgers say the investors lost $200,000 in the venture and only made $90,000 in revenue. As the Postal Museum notes, the business lost up to $30 for every letter it carried.
Still, the audacious idea was enough to capture the imagination of the country. Buffalo Bill, whose Wild West show did much to build up the mythos of the West, claimed he rode for the Pony Express. Dime novels ran with the idea and came up with many fictional adventures for the riders. But even the bare facts were impressive. The riders had to be lean and skilled. They faced harsh weather in an already harsh landscape. Attacks from Native Americans have been exaggerated, but they did happen. Only rarely did mail fail to reach the destination—so-called “interrupted mail” from the Pony Express is rare and valuable. 
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Tuesday, April 3, 2018

What 2001 A Space Odyssey Got Right

OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR

What ‘2001’ Got Right

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Eye of the HAL-9000 computer in the 1968 Stanley Kubrick film “2001: A Space Odyssey.”CreditKevin Bray/MGM, via Photofest
FRANKFURT, Germany — It’s a testament to the lasting influence of Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke’s film “2001: A Space Odyssey,” which turns 50 this week, that the disc-shaped card commemorating the German Film Museum’s new exhibition on the film is wordless, but instantly recognizable. Its face features the Cyclopean red eye of the HAL-9000 supercomputer; nothing more needs saying.
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A poster for the film.CreditMGM, via Photofest
Viewers will remember HAL as the overseer of the giant, ill-fated interplanetary spacecraft Discovery. When asked to hide from the crew the goal of its mission to Jupiter — a point made clearer in the novel version of “2001” than in the film — HAL gradually runs amok, eventually killing all the astronauts except for their wily commander, Dave Bowman. In an epic showdown between man and machine, Dave, played by Keir Dullea, methodically lobotomizes HAL even as the computer pleads for its life in a terminally decelerating soliloquy.
Cocooned by their technology, the film’s human characters appear semi-automated — component parts of their gleaming white mother ship. As for HAL — a conflicted artificial intelligence created to provide flawless, objective information but forced to “live a lie,” as Mr. Clarke put it — the computer was quickly identified by the film’s initial viewers as its most human character.
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Keir Dullea as Dave Bowman, the mission leader in “2001: A Space Odyssey.”CreditKevin Bray/MGM, via Photofest
This transfer of identity between maker and made is one reason “2001” retains relevance, even as we put incipient artificial intelligence technologies to increasingly problematic uses.
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In “2001,” the ghost in Discovery’s machinery is a consciousness engineered by human ingenuity and therefore as prone to mistakes as any human. In the Cartesian sense of thinking, and therefore being, it has achieved equality with its makers and has seen fit to dispose of them. “This mission,” HAL informs Dave, “is too important to allow you to jeopardize it.”
Asked in April 1968 whether humanity risked being “dehumanized” by its technologies, Mr. Clarke replied: “No. We’re being superhumanized by them.” While all interpretations of the film were valid, he said, in his view the human victory over Discovery’s computer might prove pyrrhic.
Indeed, with its prehistoric “Dawn of Man” opening and a grand finale in which Dave is reborn as an eerily weightless Star Child, “2001” overtly references Nietzsche’s concept that we are but an intermediate stage between our apelike ancestors and the Übermensch, or “Beyond Man.” (Decades after Nietzsche’s death, the Nazis deployed a highly selective reading of his ideas, while ignoring Nietzsche’s antipathy to both anti-Semitism and pan-German nationalism.)
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In the grand finale, Dave is reborn as an eerily weightless Star Child.CreditKevin Bray/MGM, via Photofeat
In Nietzsche’s concept, the Übermensch is destined to rise like a phoenix from the Western world’s tired Judeo-Christian dogmas to impose new values on warring humanity. Almost a century later, Mr. Clarke implied that human evolution’s next stage could well be machine intelligence itself. “No species exists forever; why should we expect our species to be immortal?” he wrote.
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We have yet to engineer a HAL-type A.G.I. (artificial general intelligence) capable of human-style thought. Instead, we’re experiencing the incremental, disruptive arrival of components of such an intelligence. Its semi-sentient algorithms learn from text, image and video without explicit supervision. Its automated discovery of patterns in that data is called “machine learning.”
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Arthur C. Clarke, author of the novel “2001: A Space Odyssey,” on the set of the movie in 1968.CreditMGM, via Photofest
This kind of A.I. lies behind facial-recognition algorithms now in use by Beijing to control China’s 1.4 billion inhabitants and by Western societies to forestall terrorist attacks.
In Mr. Clarke’s novel, HAL’s aberrant behavior was attributable to contradictory programming. In today’s hyperpartisan context, a mix of machine learning, networks of malicious bots and related A.I. technologies based on simulating human thought processes are being used to manipulate the human mind’s comparatively sluggish “wetware.” Recent revelations about stolen Facebook user data being weaponized by Cambridge Analytica and deployed to exploit voters’ hopes and fears underlines that disinformation has become a critical issue of our time.
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The director Stanley Kubrick on the set.CreditMGM, via Photofest
We should consider just whose mission it is that’s too important to jeopardize these days. Does anybody doubt that the clumsy language and inept cultural references of the Russian trolls who seeded divisive pro-Trump messages during the 2016 election will improve as A.I. gains sophistication? Of course, algorithm-driven mass manipulation is only one weapon in propagandists’ arsenals, alongside television and ideologically slanted talk radio. But its reach is growing, and it’s a back door by which viral falsehoods infiltrate our increasingly acrimonious collective conversation.
Traditional media — “one transmitter, millions of receivers” — contain an inherently totalitarian structure. Add machine learning, and a feedback loop of toxic audiovisual content can reverberate in the echo chamber of social media as well, linking friends with an ersatz intimacy that leaves them particularly susceptible to manipulation. Further amplified and retransmitted by Fox News and right-wing radio, it’s ready to beam into the mind of the spectator in chief during his “executive time.”
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Keir Dullea as Dave Bowman.CreditKevin Bray/MGM, via Photofeat
Where does HAL’s red gaze come in? Set aside the troubling prospect of what might unfold when a genuinely intelligent, self-improving A.G.I. is created — presumably the arrival of Nietzsche’s Übermensch. What’s in question even with current incipient A.I. technologies is who gets to control them. Even as some devise new medicines and streamline agriculture with them, others use them as powerful forces in opposition to Enlightenment values — liberty, tolerance and constitutional governance.
Democracy depends on a shared consensual reality — something that’s being willfully undermined. Seemingly just yesterday, peer-to-peer social networks were heralded as a revolutionary liberation from centralized information controls, and thus tools of individual human free will. We still have it in our power to purge malicious abuse of these systems, but Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and others would need to plow much more money into policing their networks — perhaps by themselves deploying countermeasures based on A.I. algorithms. Meanwhile, we should demand that a new, tech-savvy generation of leaders recognizes this danger and devises regulatory solutions that don’t hurt our First Amendment rights. A neat trick, of course — but the problem cannot be ignored.
In “2001” ’s cautionary tale, HAL’s directive to deceive Discovery’s crew leads to death and destruction — but also, ultimately, to the computer’s defeat by Dave, the one human survivor on board.
We should be so lucky.
Michael Benson, a writer and artist, is the author, most recently, of “Space Odyssey: Stanley Kubrick, Arthur C. Clarke and the Making of a Masterpiece.”
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A version of this article appears in print on , on Page A23 of the New York edition with the headline: What ‘2001’ Got Right. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe