Israeli Military Exercise A Prelude To Iran Attack?

Israel Military Exercise May Be Warning to Iran, U.S. (Update1)

By Tony Capaccio and Ken Fireman

June 20 (Bloomberg) -- A wide-ranging Israeli military exercise in the eastern Mediterranean was likely aimed at warning both Iran and the U.S. about the possibility of a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, a U.S. analyst said.

``It's very hard to think of any other enemies Israel has that would require such a massive use of forces or an attack waged at such a distance,'' said Michael O'Hanlon, a foreign- policy analyst at Washington's Brookings Institution.

The June 2 exercise involved about 100 aircraft and included mid-air refueling missions, according to two U.S. defense officials who are familiar with the broad outlines of the Israeli operation. They spoke on condition of anonymity.

At the United Nations, Russia's envoy cautioned that even the threat of military action might damage a diplomatic effort aimed at persuading Iran to limit its nuclear work.

``If things happen like threats of force and unilateral sanctions outside the framework of the Security Council, it is distracting from the negotiating process,'' Ambassador Vitaly Churkin told reporters. ``A military move would have devastating consequences for the prospect of resolving the Iranian nuclear issue, for the region and internationally.''

O'Hanlon said the exercise may have been designed to send two simultaneous messages: one to the Iranians that a strike could be made unless they rein in their nuclear activities, and another to the U.S. about the possibility of an attack.

`Used to It'

``They want to get us used to it, or at least not be totally surprised by it,'' O'Hanlon said. ``They want to be able to say they gave us warning. And they want to dissuade Iran as well. It's also battlefield training. It's all these things simultaneously.''

The New York Times, which first reported on the exercise, said it had a range of 900-miles (1,450-kilometers). The Times quoted unidentified U.S. officials as saying the exercise could be a rehearsal for an attack against the Iranian nuclear plant in Natanz as well as Iran's long-range conventional missiles.

The UN Security Council has approved three rounds of sanctions against Iran for its failure to halt uranium enrichment, a process used for making fuel for civilian energy or a bomb. The U.S. and European allies accuse Iran of trying to develop a bomb; Iran insists its activities are peaceful and legal under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Incentives Package

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said yesterday that officials in Tehran are studying an incentives package to stop enrichment. Still, Iran's ambassador to the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said the previous day that Iran wouldn't be pushed into suspending enrichment.

Crude oil rose today following the Times report that Israel held a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iranian nuclear targets, and as the weaker dollar enhanced the appeal of commodities as a currency hedge. Oil traded at $134.89 a barrel at 1 p.m. in New York, up $2.96 for the day.

A senior Iranian cleric reacted to reports of the Israeli exercise by saying his country would respond to an Israeli attack on nuclear facilities with a ``heavy blow.''

Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, leading Friday prayers in Tehran, said today that Iran favored dialogue and would resist ``mischievous acts,'' the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency said. Such an attack would prompt an ``uproar on the part of our nation,'' Khatami said.

`A Heavy Blow'

``If enemies, especially Israelis and their U.S. supporters, wish to speak in the language of force, they should rest assured they will be dealt a heavy blow on the face by the Iranian nation,'' the ayatollah said, according to IRNA.

Iran doesn't recognize Israel, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has repeatedly predicted the end of the Jewish state.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the international community not to take further measures against Iran without evidence that it's really trying to make a nuclear bomb, Interfax reported.

The Israel Defense Forces said in a statement that the ``Israeli Air Force regularly trains for various missions in order to confront and meet the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel.'' David Segal, spokesman for the Israeli Embassy in Washington, declined to comment further.

No Comment

``We are not commenting on this one,'' U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman Kate Starr said. White House spokesman Tony Fratto also declined to comment.

A task force on Iran policy and U.S.-Israel relations organized by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said June 16 that Israel may be more inclined to attack Iran because a U.S. intelligence assessment last year eroded support for preventing Iran's government from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

The report, the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate released in December, said Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003.

Reactions to the NIE ``may have heightened the inclination of some Israeli strategists to give further consideration to unilateral military action to forestall Iran's development of a nuclear capability,'' the task force said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tony Capaccio in Washington at acapaccio@bloomberg.net; Ken Fireman in Washington at kfireman1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: June 20, 2008 13:21 EDT

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