Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Additional 2012 Predictions: Trade Wars, US Election, Precious Metals, Energy:
'via Blog this'
Life takes us in many strange directions and wonderful discoveries. It never turns out the way we thought it would.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
2011 The Sad Year That Was
The Sad Year That Was:
January, 2011 Betse Streng died at age 83 of natural causes in San Miguel de Allende, Mexico. I first met her in 1988. She was a real Steel Magnolia and an incredible lady. I will miss her always.
February, 2011: My Aunt Relda died at age 91 of natural causes. She had a full and a long life.
March, 2011: Olivier “Frenchie” Avegnon took his own life at age 66. He was living as a homeless man in a church shelter in San Francisco. “Frenchie” earned a chemical engineering degree from City College of New York. He started as a US Navy officer in 1967. I’m sure that he experienced the worst of the Vietnam War and that destroyed his life. He did some wonderful work on our house and on Sue’s house.
March 26, 2011: Our dear dog Eloisa died after a battle with cancer. She lived 11 years and 9 months. She gave birth to 21 puppies. She was so intelligent and sensitive I considered her almost human.
May, 2011: My Uncle Charles D. Walters died of natural causes at age 87. In World War II he was a US Marine sniper under the command of Lt. Colonel “Chesty” Puller. He survived the war with no wounds. He went on to have a career in insurance and the postal service. He was always an inspiration to me. May I have such a long and a full life!
August, 2011: Nicholas Humy lost his battle with cancer and died. He was only 53 years old. He was a great lawyer who literally saved my life in 1998. He did something that I did not think was possible in the Federal system. He stopped me from being sent back to Texas where I would have had a hard ride I would have lost 9 more months of my life for not reporting to some official. It’s madness to spend money locking people up for trivial administrative matters!!
September, 2011: My dear sister Marianna saw her house burn to the ground in Bastrop, Texas. A century or more of memories were lost.
November 8, 2011: Our wonderful and talented contractor John R. Jolivette, Jr. was killed when his motor bike collided with a truck on Hwy 101 North near the Vermont Street exit in San Francisco. He was 49 years of age. It was a huge shock to Elena and I. He left us with a house that was 98% complete. We have been lucky enough to find good people to finish up this project.
The High Points Of 2011:
January 24, 2011: Elena and I celebrated ten years together and her 50th birthday at the Universal City Hilton Hotel in Los Angeles. Elena and I had an unforgettable birthday dinner with Raquel Cinat.
February, 2011: I got to spend some quality time with my daughter Anna in Sao Paulo after being apart for 4 years.
February, 2011: I got to see my granddaughter Bianca Santos for the first time.
March, 2011: I got to spend an incredible two weeks in Bariloche, Argentina. This is the place that I want to retire to!!
Early April, 2011: I attended the Explore Mars, Inc. Mars and The International Space Station program in Washington, DC. It was the best space conference I have attended in my life. I also got to spend a lot of time n the campus of George Washington University where I was a graduate student in the early 1970’s.
April 15, 2011: I was featured on a CBS Channel 5 program due to a huge problem that I had with Pay Pal while being in Bariloche.
June 15, 2011: After four years of work and preparation, work began on the remodel of our house.
July 31, 2011: Copernicus’s daughter Cassiopeia was born near our house. Her mother is named Alice. She had 4 other puppies.
August, 2011: Elena and I had an incredible adventure in Montana. We spent a lot of time in Yellowstone National Park and did some adventurous and dangerous hiking.
Late December, 2011: The remodel of our house is now complete.
The Great People of 2011:
Sarah Angeles, who took care of Eloisa while Elena and I were in Argentina. Eloisa became deathly ill. Sarah spent hours without pay taking her to various hospitals and vets. She gave Eloisa a few weeks of precious life.
Julie Watts of CBS Channel 5 in San Francisco who publicly exposed what Pay Pal had done to me while I was in South America.
The late John S. Jolivette, Jr., who did an incredible job of rebuilding our house. May his soul rest in peace in Heaven.
Yehia Alansi and the team at Alansi Plumbing and Rooter who did an incredible job on our house plumbing.
The People Who Were Huge Disappointments:
Adolfo Sequeira, Jr.
Bill Baldwin
Friday, December 30, 2011
Gonzalo Lira: A Run On The Global Banking System—How Close Are W...
Gonzalo Lira: A Run On The Global Banking System—How Close Are W...: Nine weeks after its bankruptcy, the general public still hasn’t quite realized the implications of the MF Global scandal. Once he looks...
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
China Could Be The World's Largest Economy By 2018
Economics focus
How to get a date
The year when the Chinese economy will truly eclipse America’s is in sight
Dec 31st 2011 | from the print edition
IN THE spring of 2011 the Pew Global Attitudes Survey asked thousands of people worldwide which country they thought was the leading economic power. Half of the Chinese polled reckoned that America remains number one, twice as many as said “China”. Americans are no longer sure: 43% of US respondents answered “China”; only 38% thought America was still the top dog. The answer depends on which measure you pick. An analysis of 21 different indicators chosen by The Economist (see the full set) finds that China has already overtaken America on over half of them and will be top on virtually all of them within a decade.
Economic power is best gauged by looking at absolute size rather than per-person measures. On a few indicators, such as steel consumption, ownership of mobile phones and beer-guzzling (a crucial test of economic superiority), the milestone was reached as long as a decade ago. Several more have been passed since. In 2011 China exported about 30% more than the United States and spent some 40% more on fixed capital investment. China is the world’s biggest manufacturer, and partly as a result it burns around 10% more energy and emits almost 40% more greenhouse gases than America (although its emissions per person are only one-third as big). The Chinese also buy more new cars each year than anybody else.
The country that invented the compass, gunpowder and printing is also challenging America in the innovation stakes. We estimate that in 2011 more patents were granted to residents in China than in America. The quality of some Chinese patents may be dubious but they will surely improve. The World Economic Forum’s “World Competitiveness Report” ranks China 31st out of 142 countries on the quality of its maths and science education, well ahead of America’s 51st place. China’s external financial clout also beats America’s hands down. It has total net foreign assets of $2 trillion; America has net debts of $2.5 trillion.
The chart shows our predictions for when China will overtake America on several other measures. Official figures show that China’s consumer spending is currently only one-fifth of that in America (although that may be understated because of China’s poor statistical coverage of services). Based on relative growth rates over the past five years it will remain smaller until 2023. Retail sales are catching up much faster, and could exceed America’s by 2014. In that same year China also looks set to become the world’s biggest importer—a huge turnaround from 2000, when America’s imports were six times those of China.
Find even more indicators and adjust the figures to make your own predictions using ourinteractive chartWhat about GDP, the most widely used measure of economic power? The IMF predicts that China’s GDP will surpass America’s in 2016 if measured on a purchasing-power parity (PPP) basis, which adjusts for the fact that prices are lower in poorer countries. But America will only really be eclipsed when China’s GDP outstrips it in dollar terms, converted at market-exchange rates.
In 2011 America’s GDP was roughly twice as big as China’s, down from eight times bigger in 2000. To predict how quickly that gap might be closed, The Economist has updated its interactive online chart (also here) which allows you to plug in your own assumptions about real GDP growth in China and America, inflation rates and the yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar. Our best guess is that annual real GDP growth over the next decade averages 7.75% in China (down from 10.5% over the past decade) and 2.5% in America; that inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) averages 4% and 1.5% respectively; and that the yuan appreciates by 3% a year. If so, then China will overtake America in 2018. That is a year earlier than our prediction in December 2010 because China’s GDP in dollar terms increased by more than expected in 2011.
Second place is for winners
Even if China became the world’s biggest economy by 2018, Americans would remain much richer, with a GDP per head four times that in China. But Rupert Hoogewerf, the founder of the annual Hurun Report on China’s richest citizens, reckons that it may already have more billionaires. His latest survey identified 270 dollar billionaires but the true total, he says, is probably double that because many Chinese are secretive about their wealth. According to the Forbes rich list, America has 400 billionaires or so.
America still tops a few league tables by a wide margin. Its stockmarket capitalisation is four times bigger than China’s and it has more than twice as many firms in the Fortuneglobal 500, which lists the world’s biggest companies by revenue. Last but not least, America spends five times as much on defence as China does, and even though China’s defence budget is expanding faster, on recent growth rates America will remain top gun until 2025.
Being the biggest economy in the world does offer advantages. It helps to ensure military superiority and gives a country more say in fixing international rules. Historically, the biggest economy has become the issuer of the main reserve currency, which is why America has also been able to borrow more cheaply than it otherwise would. But it would be a mistake for American leaders to try to block China’s rise. China’s rapid growth benefits the whole global economy. It is better to be number two in a fast-growing world than top dog in a stagnant one.
from the print edition | Finance and economics
I Love It When A Plan Comes Together!
Monday was a holiday. Nonetheless Giorgi's Furniture Store delivered the two desks for our computers. I worked all evening moving all of the computers from the old area to the new computer room. Today I hooked up my complex speaker system and Comcast came out and got the high-speed internet on line. It feels great to make a plan and see it work out.
Monday, December 26, 2011
Sunday, December 25, 2011
Elon Musk Plans To Put Millions Of People On Mars
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I'll Put Millions of People on Mars, says Elon Muskposted Dec 22, 2011 9:10 PM by Michael Stoltz [ updated Dec 22, 2011 9:29 PM ]
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