Iran: Spring Is Not Here

IRAN

Spring Is Not Here

The sight of thousands of Iranian protesters raising slogans against not only the country’s president but also Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may be a welcome one for most Americans and others who view it as a fight for democracy.

But an Iranian version of the Arab Spring is not here.

Since late last week, protesters have thronged cities and towns across Iran. The largest anti-government rallies since protestsrelated to the 2009 presidential elections, the demonstrations have gone beyond the usual urban elite to draw the rural masses. Even more rare, demonstrators have directed as much ire toward Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader since 1989, as toward President Hassan Rouhani, Reuters reported.

That prompted online cheering and a vague promise of “support” from US President Donald Trump and inspired some pundits to hope a democratic revolution could soon be on the way, noted the Washington Post. But by sheer numbers, the protests never came close to matching those in 2009, the Economist argued. Tehran faces none of the limitations that prevented Egypt or Tunisia from ruthlessly crushing their own popular uprisings. And the regime’s “thug elements — including the Revolutionary Guard Corps — appear to remain fanatically loyal,” opines David French in the National Review.

On Wednesday, the Revolutionary Guard deployed forces to three provinces to put an end to the protests – redoubling their efforts when demonstrations cropped up again. Thousands of Iranians took part in state-sponsored, pro-government rallies where marchers waved Iranian flags and portraits of Khamenei. And the head of the Revolutionary Guards declared that the “seditious” protesters had been defeated, reported CNN.

It’s also not clear that the protests are such a good thing for Washington and others keen on a new form of government in Iran.

While they have since spun beyond the control of any one group, the Economist noted that the demonstrations were begun by hardliners seeking to cause trouble for Rouhani – who is a moderate and a reformer, despite butting heads with Trump over the status of Iran’s nuclear program. And disgust with Rouhani’s failure to deliver economic prosperity on the back of the nuclear deal he negotiated could linger on after criticism of Khamenei is silenced.

The immediate spark for the protests, after all, was Rouhani’s most recent budget, New York Times reporter Thomas Erdbrink told PBS Newshour. Revelations in the budget about spending on religious institutions and the Republican Guards, as well as price hikes for fuel and the elimination of a monthly cash handout to 30 million Iranians, sparked angry responses on social media.

Before that, hardliners had already been making hay over Trump’s decertification of the nuclear deal, saying the US betrayed and made a fool out of Rouhani. Though Iran’s economy has grown since the nuclear deal, thanks to resumed oil exports, unemployment among young people, half of Iran’s population, is at 40 percent, the New York Times reported. On Thursday, the US sanctioned five new entities it says are involved with Iran’s ballistic missile program, Reuters said.

Meanwhile, the demonstrations have broadened in scope. Protesters were chanting slogans like “We don’t want an Islamic republic” and “People are paupers while the mullahs live like gods,” noted the Economist, but not those alone.

“No to conservatives and reformers alike,” was another popular slogan.