Dear David:
What we are seeing right now is the implosion of Donald Trump. I do a swim every morning from 05:00 to 06:30. As you can imagine there are not many Trump supporters in that pool. A report went out that Attorney General Jeff Sessions had been fired. My mind raced. What I saw happening next was Assistant Attorney General Rob Rosen being fired and Special Counsel Robert Mueller being fired. It would be Nixon's "Saturday Night Massacre" all over again." When I got to the locker room and looked at my mobile phone, I found out that Rex Tillerson had been fired. I was sad for him but relieved that we did not have an immediate constitutional crisis.
I trained for the intelligence function in the US Navy. When you are an analyst, things like troop, ships, and aircraft movements are interesting. What brings you to the right conclusion are very subtle details that many people would over look. A military intelligence person looking at Trump would take note of the following:
1) He is hiring a specialist lawyer who represented Bill Clinton in his impeachment indictment and trial in the senate.
2) Paul Manafort, Trump's ex-campaign manager, is the man who knows enough to tie Trump to Putin and finish him. So far, Manafort has refused to cooperate. He has a criminal trial starting in Alexandria, Virginia in July for tax fraud and bank fraud. The judge in that case warned him that he was facing 10 years in this case and 20 years over in Washington, DC for money laundering, etc. This judge pointed out that Manafort is facing 30 years in prison. Manafort believes that Trump will pardon him for being a loyal soldier. Once he realizes that will not happen, he will have no choice but to cooperate despite fears of "a hit" on he and/or his family from Putin (Like the London attempt on the lives of two Russians.) Once Manafort starts talking, Trump is finished.
3) Look at the congressional race in a suburb of Pittsburgh. It is one of the safest seats for Republicans. It appears that Democrat Connor Lamb has won in an upset. Look at several other prior races with Democratic Party upsets. The mid-term elections in November could very well see Democrats regain control of both the House and the Senate. The stage would be set for Trump's impeachment.
4) Tillerson was a man who was once decorated by Putin for being "a friend of the Russian people." He has been an outspoken critic of Putin and Russia. When Rex made a comment that he believed that Russia was behind the poisoning attempt in London, he was promptly fired. He was replaced by a right-wing lackey who will back Trump up on his Iran policy. The "torture lady" nominated to lead the CIA, might or might not get confirmed. Regardless of what she did in the Bush II years, she was able to keep her CIA job and avoid criminal prosecution.
Now what happens going forward? As stupid as Trump may be, he already understands that he is "mortally wounded" in the political sense. He will talk tough and be arrogant. His battle will be to stay in office for as long as possible and to save he and his family members from criminal prosecution. He will also play"mad man's bluff" with Iran to intimidate them into making a better deal on nuclear weapons. The Europeans will not go along with him. He will also use his toughness here to intimidate Kim Jong Un. This will have just the opposite affect and deter Kim form making any sort of agreement with him.
Let us watch what really happened in the Nixon fall from power. What most people do not know is the person who put Nixon out of power was Bush I when he was chairman of the Republican National Committee. Bush I came to the conclusion that Nixon "had crossed too many lines" and had to go. Bush I let Nixon know this and Nixon resigned. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Nixon did not have a deal for a presidential pardon from President Gerald R. Ford when he resigned.
Nixon left the White House in disgrace. He flew to Southern California on Air Force One. When he landed at an air force base there, he was given a warm greeting by over 50,000 supporters.
Gerald Ford soon got a report from the Justice Department. Any Nixon criminal trial would take up to two years. The whole country's attention would have been on this trial. It would have torn the country apart. Ford made the decision to pardon Nixon knowing full well that it would end his political career.
With this case, Pence might be found to be heavily-involved with the Russians and forced out of office. Paul Ryan could end up being president. Either Pence or Ryan would face the same dilemma that Gerald Ford faced over 41 years ago. A trial of Trump and his family would go on for years It would tear the country apart. There would literally be "a right-wing revolt."
In the back of all our minds is the fear that Trump will order some sort of nuclear strike against North Korea or Iran. Yes he has the authority to do this. What happens in the process to initiate a nuclear attack is Trump gets out "the black bag." He issues orders for specific weapons and targets. These codes are transmitted to a group of admirals and generals who do all the detail work to get the attack carried out. These officers have strict legal guidelines and face murder charges if they carry out an unlawful nuclear attack. One US Air Force general admitted this in a public speech. My personal theory is that Trump already ordered a tactical nuclear strike on North Korea and the officers refused to carry it out.
I shall close with a Chinese proverb from many centuries past: "May you live in interesting times."
With kindest regards,
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