I have over 35 years experience in international trade. Here are some things I know well as follows:
1) I lived for 5 years in Brasil. When it comes to international trade, they have a Brasil first policy that Donald Trump would love. Massive import duties are imposed on virtually everything that must be imported to Brasil. The result is very high prices for any sort of consumer electronics, cars, clothes, shoes; the list can go on for pages. More affluent Brasilians leave with empty suitcases and buy most of what they need in other countries. The poor suffer and often cannot even afford the necessities of life.
2) I live relatively near the port of Oakland. Huge container ships full of goods dock at the port. They off load massive amount of goods made primarily in China but also in other Asian countries. The containers containing all of these goods sit empty at the Port of Oakland. The US runs a huge trade deficit with the rest of the world.
3) Germany has just the opposite experience. Massive cargo container ships come from Asian countries to German ports like Hamburg. The Asian goods are off loaded. The containers are filled with very high-quality manufactured goods from Germany that go back to Asia. Germany has a huge trade surplus and the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. Does Germany have "a Germany First" trade policy putting massive import duties on products that come from other countries. No, they just do a better job of being competitive.
4) Donald Trump reads trade statistics that show these trade imbalances and concludes that it is unfair to the USA. These trade statistics do not show the whole picture of international economics. A lot of money comes back to the US from foreign countries that is not recorded in the official trade figures. I could write a book on this. If we did the statistics right, we might find that the US actually has a trade surplus with the rest of the world.
5) A cautionary tale from 1929-1932 is in order here. Most people believe that the stock market crashes of 1929 and onward caused The Great Depression. In those times long ago, only 2% of the US population was invested in the stock market. What actually caused The Great Depression was a series of trade wars with high import duties as Trump is doing now.
1) I lived for 5 years in Brasil. When it comes to international trade, they have a Brasil first policy that Donald Trump would love. Massive import duties are imposed on virtually everything that must be imported to Brasil. The result is very high prices for any sort of consumer electronics, cars, clothes, shoes; the list can go on for pages. More affluent Brasilians leave with empty suitcases and buy most of what they need in other countries. The poor suffer and often cannot even afford the necessities of life.
2) I live relatively near the port of Oakland. Huge container ships full of goods dock at the port. They off load massive amount of goods made primarily in China but also in other Asian countries. The containers containing all of these goods sit empty at the Port of Oakland. The US runs a huge trade deficit with the rest of the world.
3) Germany has just the opposite experience. Massive cargo container ships come from Asian countries to German ports like Hamburg. The Asian goods are off loaded. The containers are filled with very high-quality manufactured goods from Germany that go back to Asia. Germany has a huge trade surplus and the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. Does Germany have "a Germany First" trade policy putting massive import duties on products that come from other countries. No, they just do a better job of being competitive.
4) Donald Trump reads trade statistics that show these trade imbalances and concludes that it is unfair to the USA. These trade statistics do not show the whole picture of international economics. A lot of money comes back to the US from foreign countries that is not recorded in the official trade figures. I could write a book on this. If we did the statistics right, we might find that the US actually has a trade surplus with the rest of the world.
5) A cautionary tale from 1929-1932 is in order here. Most people believe that the stock market crashes of 1929 and onward caused The Great Depression. In those times long ago, only 2% of the US population was invested in the stock market. What actually caused The Great Depression was a series of trade wars with high import duties as Trump is doing now.
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