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Friday, July 31, 2020

Putin Is Activerly And Aggressively Interfering In Elections All Over The World

BELARUS

Friends and Foes

Belarusian authorities arrested 33 suspected Russian mercenaries for plotting “terrorism” ahead of the country’s presidential elections next month, the BBC reported.

Officials said that at least 200 Russian mercenaries are believed to have entered the country and are part of the Wagner paramilitary group. They added that 14 of the detained had fought in the Ukraine conflict.

The Belarus Investigative Committee is now investigating possible links between the Russian suspects and the jailed popular opposition blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky – whose wife is opposition presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.

Russia, meanwhile, has denied any involvement in the plot or any affiliation with the Wagner group. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has maintained close ties with Belarus and they have held joint military exercises. Even so, the relationship has soured over the past few years.

Meanwhile, the Wagner group has been involved in global conflicts, including in Syria, Ukraine and Sudan – and is suspected of being involved in Libya.

The upcoming elections come amid protests against Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, who has run the country since 1994, and has banned opposition members from taking part in the vote. Lukashenko is seeking a sixth term and has exerted authoritarian control over the country. He is known as “Europe’s last dictator.”


Wednesday, July 29, 2020

American Tourists Are No Longer Welcome Around The World

WORLD

Oh, the Places You’ll (Not) Go!

The Irish are complaining about American tourists who thoughtlessly flout self-quarantining rules for visitors to the Emerald Isle.
They aren’t reconsidering their tough stance just because Americans are the largest source of tourism revenue in Ireland. “The first thing I want to see is American guests return,” hotelier Simon Haden of County Clare in western Ireland told the New York Times. “But not if it’s going to put the health and safety of our guests, our staff, the community under threat after the sacrifices we’ve made.”
Citizens of the United States have long enjoyed what frequent international travelers called “passport privilege.”  The coronavirus pandemic is now precipitating a reversal in fortunes.
Canadian authorities fined Americans for flouting entry restrictions. While some Canadian businesses are hurting due to a slowdown of traffic, most Canadian citizens don’t want a more open border with the US right now, blaming the US for bringing Covid-19 into Canada according to the Washington Post.
“Canadians look at what’s happening with the spread of Covid in the United States and their comparatively better performance at getting it under control,” said Edward Alden, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “And they have no interest at all in Americans coming to Canada.”
People like Eric Brown in Ontario are torn. He runs fishing lodges and Americans are 95 percent of his business. Travel restrictions on the U.S.-Canada border, he said, have “absolutely devastated us,” he told the Washington Post. “It’s just heartbreaking to watch it all dissolve – 42 years of my legacy disappear in one season.”
Meanwhile, Mexican governors are calling for tighter restrictions on Americans entering the Latin American country due to the US’ high Covid-19 infection rate. In the Mexican town of Sonoyta on the Arizona border, residents used their cars and trucks to block the road to Puerto Peñasco, a beach town on the Sea of Cortés popular among American tourists whom the locals feared might spread the virus, the Guardian wrote.
Mexico is one of the few countries in the world that now accepts American visitors with few restrictions. Most nations have barred Americans owing to the rapid spread of the virus within the country.
The European Union recently extended its travel ban on Americans as the infection rate in the US continues to mount, USA Today wrote. Australians and South Koreans were recently readmitted. EU officials had a key requirement – to only admit individuals from countries with the same or better track record as the 27-member bloc regarding new infections.
The ban on Americans isn’t a joke. Sardinian authorities recently turned away five American tourists who arrived on the Mediterranean island in a private jet due to virus concerns, CNN reported.
“Americans are the dangerous, disease-carrying foreigners now,” was the headline of an op-ed in the Washington Post.
Some countries have banned all foreign entries. Expatriates in Japan are banned from returning to the country if they leave, wrote the Japan Times. The rule that puts an enormous pressure on folks who can’t plan much of a future in the country if they can never leave for family, business or pleasure.
Before the pandemic, global travel was a way of life for folks in rich countries, almost seen as a right. Now it is becoming a privilege.

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Carlos Ghosn "Went From The Frying Pan Into The Fire!"

LEBANON

No Tomorrow

Lebanon is on the brink of becoming a failed state.
“Once celebrated as the Switzerland of the Middle East, Lebanon is facing a severe crisis,” wrote Der Spiegel, a German news magazine. “Its economy is collapsing, while electricity and adequate medical care are hard to find. The state has completely failed its people.”
Recently, the electricity worked for around three hours a day, the Washington Post reported. An approaching commercial jet aborted a landing at Beirut’s airport because the runway lights shut off. Traffic signals don’t work, adding to traffic that was already terrible.
Desperation in Beirut is high. The city has a violent past as well as a rich history as a prosperous, cosmopolitan center of the Eastern Mediterranean, as this BBC profile illustrates – once, it was known as the Paris of the Middle East, the region’s bookseller and a glamorous financial capital where the world’s glitterati flocked.
Now, a spate of suicides in the capital has given the crisis a macabre feel.
One man shot himself on a busy street, leaving a suicide note referencing a famous song about poverty during the civil war that lasted from 1975 to 1990. “A country at the crossroads of the Middle East’s flashpoints appears to be coming apart,” Bloomberg wrote.
Food shortages and hunger are becoming the norm. “This is the first time I’ve come here,” said Haifa, who was among a throng crowding a food and medicine distribution station recently in Beirut, in an interview with France 24. “Our lives have been turned upside down. We had a good lifestyle, but that’s all finished now. All of a sudden we’ve become so poor, we’ve got nothing.”
Lebanon is on the precipice of a deep financial crisis, NBC News explained. The currency has collapsed. Unemployment is skyrocketing. The decline began years ago as leaders mismanaged and overspent. Late last year, anti-government protests erupted against the economic situation, corruption, sectarian politics, entrenched patronage and the inequality they create in society.
Then the coronavirus delivered the knockout punch as businesses shuttered. In March, Lebanon defaulted on $90 billion of debt. Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for another $10 billion loan have failed to deliver results. Lebanon has mixed relations with the US because Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed political party, wields significant political power there. The US and others have designated it as a terror group.
Now, protesters take to the streets routinely to point out that their leaders who became wealthy due to the corrupt system they created should be held responsible now that economic catastrophe has struck, CNN reported.
Still, talk to anyone in Lebanon who remembers the civil war and its aftermath and they will talk about the famous resilience – and defiance – of the Lebanese, pointing out how people would dress in any finery they could find and celebrate as if there were no war, as if there were no tomorrow – because there might not be.
Nowadays, those people shrug and say, we overcame bullets and bombs, so this too will pass.

Saturday, July 25, 2020

Some Chilling Numbers About Coronavirus Deaths

Good Morning Everyone:
      We start the day with 148,492 documented coronavirus deaths in the US. We are now averaging 1,100 deaths per day. By September 11, 2020, we will hit 200,000 deaths. By election day on November 3, we could see a total of 258,000 or more document coronavirus deaths in the US.


Thursday, July 23, 2020

Halifax, Nova Scotia Doesn't Have A Coronavirus Problem


        For many years I had a great woman lawyer named Lois. When she would go to see a client in jail, she would have the following words of encouragement:
        "You have to look at the positive aspects of your confinement."
        The positive aspects of being confined to home is that I have had some incredible Zoom meetings with people who I never would have got to meet in normal life. Thanks to Explore Mars, Inc., I got to have a video meeting with Catherine "Cady" Coleman, PhD and Colonel US Air Force (retired) She used to be a NASA astronaut. She flew two Space Shuttle missions and flew once on the Soyuz spacecraft to the International Space Station. For those of you interested, here is her biography:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Coleman 
       
      She was a fascinating guest. I could spend pages talking about what I learned. Something else caught my attention during the meeting. A fellow guest was from Halifax, Nova Scotia. He made the following comment: "There is no coronavirus within 500 miles of here. We do not allow Americans in Canada now." He went on to make a joke that Canadians were considering building a wall at the border. He said that they would require Trump to pay for it. We all got a big laugh about that comment.
   One must start to question what they are doing right. By the way, yesterday Brasil reported 68,000 new and documented cases of coronavirus.

Monday, July 20, 2020

A Beautiful House Sells In The Middle Of A Pandemic


         In these bad times I got a pleasant surprise "out of the blue." It was Christmas, 2018. A family came back from Christmas shopping in the evening. She left Christmas packages on the stove. She decided to run the oven cleaner to clean the oven. Many of us have this feature on our stoves. What most don't realize is that the oven goes up to 800 degrees Fahrenheit as it does the automatic clean. The Christmas packages eventually caught fire. I understand that the house had no smoke alarms. A devastating fire followed. The house was left as a burned-out shell. A fast fire department response prevented any fatalities or serious injuries.
        The burned-out wreck of a house sat for a long time. Then an intrepid Palestinian immigrant named Waleed came along. He bought the burned-out wreck. Soon all sorts of construction activities were going on. When he finished his work, a beautiful home was offered for sale. One Saturday afternoon I had a chance meeting with Waleed. He was gracious. He gave me a complete tour of the house. I was impressed. The $1,900,000 price was out of my price range.
     Then the pandemic hit. The house sat for sale for quite a while. Yesterday I got the news that it had sold for the full sales price of $1,900,000 on 12 July. It was an all-cash deal I understand. In this time of between 20 and 40 million people out of work in the US and businesses closing for good every day, it is amazing to see that those with serious money are doing quite well.

Sunday, July 19, 2020

A Small Miracle At The Jean Brink Swimming Pool


     I had a small miracle yesterday. The swimming pool where I swim was closed for almost 4 months. It reopened under strict guidelines from The San Mateo County Department of Health. One has to make an appointment for a 45-minute swim on a daily basis. You report to the waiting area in front of the pool 10 minutes before the swim starts. You must be with a mask on or you will not be admitted. You go to the check in area with plexiglass protection for the staff also in masks. Your temperature is taken. You get a quick exam to see if you show signs of coronavirus. Once you get into the pool, two lifeguards in masks are on patrol. You are not allowed into the locker rooms unless you have a bathroom emergency.
     As you can imagine, such an operation is labor intensive. Extra workers must be hired. This all costs money. Each swimmer was charged a fee of  $10.00 for a 45-minute swim. If one swims six days a week, this is $60.00 per week x 4.3= $258.00 per month.
    Then an elderly lady passed away. She left a good part of her estate to the Pacifica Parks and Recreation Department. This windfall allowed a reduction in the swim fee to $5.00 per swim. "Every bit helps."

Saturday, July 18, 2020

A Meeting With The Editor-In-Chief Of The Economist Magazine


     Yesterday I won the lottery, in a sense. I found myself in a Zoom meeting with the editor-in-chief of The Economist magazine, Susan "Zanny" Minton Beddoes. The Economist magazine started in 1843. In my opinion, it is one of the two best publications in the English-speaking world. (The other being The Financial Times of London.)
          Ms. Beddoes got her BA at Saint Hilda's College of Oxford University and her M.A. at Harvard. She joined The Economist magazine in 1994 as its emerging markets correspondent. She is the first woman to rise to the exalted position of editor-in-chief of this 177 year old publication.
          She is a pleasant surprise in every way. Despite her exalted position and power, she is humble and down to earth. She has a wonderful sense of humor. If you came to her office or had lunch with her, she would put you right at ease. She would listen to you carefully. Then she would amaze you with her knowledge of the world and what happens. She began her career as an economist. She was drawn to The Economist magazine. (The magazine has a philosophy of not hiring professional journalists. Rather, they hire specialists in various fields who can write well.)
      Ms. Beddoes has filled senior management positions with many highly-qualified women executives. It has become a company run by women. Its quality has not diminished.
       I had a wonderful time. I got a lot of mental stimulation. I learned a lot. Sometime in life one gets pleasant surprises that they were not expecting.

Friday, July 17, 2020

Sir Richard Branson: A Man Most Admired By Me


         Sir Richard Branson is one of my most- admired people in the world. He began life in a lower-middle class English family. When one finishes high school in the US and England, the student with the most future potential is voted "Most likely to succeed." Sir Richard was voted "Most likely to go to jail."
         It was not a good start in life for a man who would one day become a billionaire several times over and the richest man in England. Sir Richard started his business career at age 20. He formed The Virgin Group. He seemed and still seems to have "The Midas Touch." (Everything he touches turns to gold.) He started selling records, CD's , etc. He got upset with the service that he got on British Airways. He went out and formed his own airline, Virgin Atlantic Airlines. He went on to form Virgin America Airlines. Elena and I both know from personal experience that it was a class act. We had many wonderful flights. He formed Virgin Australia. Then he did something that many people considered crazy. He formed a company to send passengers into space-Virgin Galactic. In all his decades of running airlines, Sir Richard only had one fatality. This occured when a pilot made an error and caused his first space plane to crash. It set back his space tourism ambitions at least 5 years.
      Sir Richard did not let this tragedy destroy his enthusiasm for space tourism. He built a new space plane. He took the Virgin Galactic company public. (As a matter of disclosure Elena and I are major shareholders in this venture.)
       A couple of days ago, he pulled off a coup. Sir Richard is a showman. He has a brilliant talent for marketing. He gets the public excited. For 10 years, George Whitesides has been CEO of Virgin Galactic. He took the company from 30 employees to 900 employees. Sir Richard saw that the pioneering phase of the company had passed. He moved George Whitesides upstairs. George will now be director of new business development for the whole Virgin Galactic and Virgin Orbital groups. He brought in a major Walt Disney executive, Michael A. Colglazier, to be the new CEO. Michael is a Harvard MBA who ran Disney Asia for many years. He also had a big hand in Star Wars movies. Here is some more information on this move:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-stock-ceo-disney-star-wars-galaxys-edge-space-tourism-51594913172?mod=djem_b_Weekly%20Barrons%20feed%20for%20last%2024%20hours 
    Yesterday was a grim day on the stock market with "red ink everywhere." When the public got wind of the new Virgin Galactic CEO, they sensed that the space plane was about to fly with paying passengers. Virgin Galactic shares went up 15% to 20%. It was a great stock market day for Elena and I. The shares are holding well this morning in the premarket trading. They could go up again today.


Tuesday, July 14, 2020

A Shortage Of Glass Vials May Hold Up The Distribution Of A Coronavirus Vaccine Six Months


Bigpicturescience.org is a podcast that comes out each Monday. It is science for the layperson. The podcast yesterday was about obscure facts relating to coronavirus. When we get a prescription from the pharmacy, it generally comes in a plastic bottle. Those of you who are diabetics and take insulin know that your medicine comes in a rugged glass vial. When we have a valid and proven coronavirus vaccine, its widespread dissemination might be held up six months due to a shortage of glass vials. There is only one firm in the US that produces glass vials. All glass comes from silica or sand. Sand mining operations around the world are not producing enough silica. One Silicon Valley company came up with an ingenious vial that is plastic on the outside with a glass lining. This has not been accepted yet.

Sunday, July 12, 2020

A Glorious Day In Pacifica


      Despite the hard times, yesterday was a glorious day. The sun came out. All the fog vanished. There was not a cloud in the sky. I had a 45-minute swim in a super safe environment where masks, hand sanitizers, thermometers, and social distancing are practiced. Afterwards I did a 6.5-mile hike along the ocean. I started along the concrete portion of the seawall. I went to the earthen part of the seawall near Sharp Park Golf Course. I then climbed up to Mori Point to get some spectacular views of the beautiful town where we live. Even in sad times it's wonderful to be alive on such days!
      There were a lot of people out enjoying the beautiful day. 85% had masks or some other form of face covering. Most of the 15% without face covering were self-conscious about it. They were most careful to maintain good social distancing. Then at the entrance to the path going up to Mori Point, I encountered a big group of bike riders. Most were middle-aged men. Only one had a face covering on. They were making no effort to practice social distancing. I made sure that I didn't get anywhere near them.
      Taking a few simple steps can save your life.

Thursday, July 9, 2020

When Reality Imitates Art

When Reality Imitates Art

While the pandemic has left many with a bleak perspective on the future, scientists recently discovered that fans of movies and series like “Contagion” or “The Walking Dead” are having an easier time coping with the new realities, New York Post reported.
In a new study, lead author Coltan Scrivner and his team surveyed more than 300 people about the types of movies they like to watch. They then asked them about their experiences during the pandemic and how they coped.
Their findings showed that people who occasionally saw a horror film or an end-of-the-world movie were less upset about the current crisis, while those who enjoyed “prepper movies” – movies in which society crumbles – were more resilient during a calamity.
Scrivner told the Guardian that movies about pandemics – like “Contagion” – make people more familiar with quarantines, supply shortages and dubious information about miracle cures.
“You’ve seen it a hundred times in the movies, so it doesn’t catch you off-guard so much,” said Scrivner.

China: Genocide By IUD

CHINA

Genocide By IUD

China is sterilizing hundreds of thousands of Uighur women to reduce its Muslim population even as it is encouraging women of the Han majority to bear more children, an Associated Press investigation found.
Officials have subjected hundreds of thousands of these women to pregnancy checks, forced use of intrauterine devices, birth control pills, shots to prevent pregnancy, sterilization and abortion over the past four years.
“Performance targets…Target 1: target population for intrauterine contraception device placement 524 people…Target 2: [target] population for sterilizations 14,872 people.”
Those quotes come from official Chinese documents that detailed plans to sterilize as much as a third of women from Uighur and other minority groups between the ages of 18 and 49 in the far-western province of Xinjiang, where a large Uighur community resides, according to Adrian Zenz, a senior fellow in China studies at the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation in Washington, writing in Foreign Policy. He said China was perpetrating demographic genocide, a cultural extermination combined with a campaign of “ethno-racial supremacy.”
It began in 2017, when there was an unprecedented crackdown on the minority group, with hundreds of thousands thrown into prisons and camps for “signs of religious extremism” such as traveling abroad, praying or using foreign social media, the AP wrote in previous articles. Authorities launched “dragnet-style” investigations to root out parents with too many children, even those who gave birth decades ago.
One former teacher drafted to work as an instructor at a detention camp told the AP: It started with flag-raising assemblies at her compound at the beginning of 2017, where officials made Uighur residents recite “anti-terror” lessons. They chanted, “If we have too many children, we’re religious extremists…That means we have to go to the training centers.”
In some areas, women were ordered to take gynecology exams after the ceremonies, they told the news outlet. In others, officials outfitted special rooms with ultrasound scanners for pregnancy tests.
Fast-forward three years: Currently, the Chinese government is using the mass detention in internment camps both as a threat and as a punishment for failure to comply, the AP wrote. “Having too many children is a major reason people are sent to detention camps, with the parents of three or more ripped away from their families unless they can pay huge fines. Police raid homes, terrifying parents as they search for hidden children.”
The campaign is working: Birth rates in the mostly Uighur regions of Hotan and Kashgar plunged by more than 60 percent from 2015 to 2018, the latest figures available, the AP wrote. Across the Xinjiang region, birth rates continue to plummet, falling nearly 24 percent last year – compared to just 4.2 percent nationwide. In some Uighur counties, 2018 saw more deaths than births. In others, they have either leveled off to almost zero or the data is being withheld, Foreign Policy wrote.
Meanwhile, state-sponsored hackers have been secretly implanting malware into the Uighur population’s smartphones, collecting location data as well as DNA, voiceprints, facial scans and other personal data to transform Xinjiang into a virtual police state, the New York Times wrote. And China didn’t stop collecting or using the data at its borders: It followed the Uighurs into exile in 15 other countries.
The communist authorities also arrested and imprisoned hundreds of imams over the past few years, robbing the community of its leaders as the Chinese state prepared stricter measures, Voice of America reported.
In response to the allegations by the AP, the New York Times, Foreign Policy and other outlets, China said they are “fabricated” and “fake news”: They stress that the government treats all ethnicities equally and protects the legal rights of minorities. Chinese officials have said in the past that the new measures are merely meant to be fair, allowing both Han Chinese and ethnic minorities the same number of children, the AP wrote.
President Donald Trump recently signed the Uighur Human Rights Policy Act of 2020, which would punish violations of human rights with sanctions, CNN explained. American officials have also cautioned US companies against working with Chinese businesses that might rely on Uighur forced labor or other abuses, reported Politico.
Even so, writing in the Guardian, Uighur expert Sean Roberts of George Washington University argued that the US has always tacitly – or possibly even explicitly – sanctioned China’s persecution of the Uighurs. China’s ongoing campaign against the Uighurs, Roberts wrote, “has never been a response to a terrorist threat, real or imagined – but a narrative of Islamist terrorism founded in the US-led ‘war on terror’ that has always served as its convenient justification.”
In the New Republic, the urgency of the group’s plight led editors to use the headline, “Uighur Lives Matter.” The conservative National Review thought more than sanctions were necessary to stop what was going on in concentration camps deep in China’s interior.
“Never again” used to mean something. Maybe it will again.

Tuesday, July 7, 2020

A Mysterious Power Failure In My Office

There is an old saying from ancient Greece as follows:
      "It takes a great mind to comprehend the obvious."
       I installed a new internet system in my home office a few weeks ago, It has "all the bells and whistles including a back up modem that switches me to cell phone towers if the Xfinity internet goes down. It is super fast which makes me more efficient and productive when I work. It has an advanced battery that would keep me online for 12 hours if we had a catastrophic power failure.
       Early yesterday morning there was a big pop. It went dead. I did all normal recovery procedures and nothing worked. I assumed that Xfinity was doing maintenance to the entire system. Late in the morning it was still dead. I talked to 5 different Xfinity customer service reps after playing "the 800  number shuffle." On try #6, I insisted that they send out a tech. My whole afternoon was lost waiting for the tech to arrive. He arrived late in the afternoon. He turned on the high-powered battery. Power came back on. He left. The battery kept going off. Fortunately the tech was still downstairs doing post-service paperwork. I brought him back up. He did a further investigation. He discovered that a light switch had to be turned on to provide power to the battery, The tech who did the installation never saw this. I had been running on battery power for weeks.

Monday, July 6, 2020

Iran: Plausible Deniability

IRAN

Plausible Deniability

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said Sunday that Israel is not “necessarily” responsible for every mysterious incident in Iran, after a series of fires and gas leaks broke out at Iranian plants, Reuters reported.
On Saturday, a fire broke out at a power station in the southwestern city of Ahvaz, Al Jazeera reported. On the same day, a chlorine gas leak in the southeastern province of Khuzestan sickened 70 workers, according to the Associated Press.
The recent incidents follow a blaze that significantly damaged the Natanz nuclear facility Thursday. Authorities initially said the damage was minor but admitted Sunday that the fire was caused by a powerful bomb, the New York Times reported.
The Natanz site is one of the several Iranian facilities monitored by inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear watchdog.
The damage has set back Iran’s nuclear program by months, and intelligence officials suspect that Israel was responsible.
Meanwhile, Iranian authorities have warned they would retaliate against any country that carries out attacks on its facilities, including nuclear plants.

Saturday, July 4, 2020

How I Arrived At An Estimate Of Up To 1,500,000 deaths Due To Coronavirus In The US

Dear Readers:
     I hate guns and loud noises. I do not want to see any person get hurt. The book The Great Influenza had a profound impact on me. Dr. Seth Shostak introduced me to the book and the author John Barry. This book has become my guide as to what is happening with this pandemic and what will happen next fall and winter.
        My son is a scientist. I could not produce the rigorous statistical analysis that he would need to write a paper putting forth this projection. I could not produce a medical paper that would satisfy my wife and medical colleagues that such a death rate was possible.
      I have learned the great value of common sense in almost 72 years on earth. 102 years ago the world had roughly 1.4 billion people. We now have some 7.5 billion people. The population has increased 5.36 times. The US had roughly 103,208,000 people in 1918. We now have roughly 330,000,000 people. Our population has increased 3.2 times. If we take the Spanish flu death rate of 675,000 and multiply it by 3.2 we get a result of 2,160,000 possible deaths.
      Many of my readers including those with medical and scientific training will protest that such a projection is unrealistic. After all, we have far superior technology and medical capabilities now than we had 102 years ago. My doctor wife will point to many patients she knows who were saved now and would have died 102 years ago. This is a fair comment.
        The technology also works against us. In 1918 passenger flights were unheard of. Today we have thousands of jet airliners carrying people all over the world. This rapid mobility allows faster spread. We also have a failure of political will in this country and in Brasil.
        There is all this optimism about a vaccine being developed quickly. Every time there is a new trial of a coronavirus vaccine, there is big media fanfare. Medical professionals who develop vaccines as their life work are much more pessimistic. They talk about a timeline of up to 4 years to have an effective vaccine ready. It might not take this long. It will not happen this year. There is also talk that the population will gain herd immunity. We have no proof this will happen with coronavirus.
      If we follow the history presented in The Great Influenza, we can expect a very bad second wave next fall.
       Balancing all these factors, I reduced the possible 2,160,000 death toll in the US down to 1,500,000 deaths. It is only an educated guess.
        Before I leave you, let us talk for a second about possible world death tolls. The world population has increased 5.6 times from 1918 until now. John M. Barry went on the record with an estimated death toll of 100 million worldwide from the Spanish flu. Let your imagination go to work here and multiply 100 million by 5.6.

--

Friday, July 3, 2020

"Get Ready For The Darkest Winter Of All Time"


      Yesterday I heard a brilliant podcast of the coronavirus outbreak. It came from Stratfor (Rane Group), This is a private intelligence agency. Here is the link:
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/rane-insights-preparing-second-wave-amid-sea-data
    If any of you are serious about listening to it and get password hassles, please contact me.
    A few words in the middle of the talk caught my attention. A speaker started to talk about the Black Death (bubonic plague pandemic that ended in 1350-sime 670 years ago.) You can imagine how primitive life was all those centuries ago. Communications were word of mouth. (They did not even have printing presses then.) Medicine and science were very primitive. I could go on for a long time with all the deficiencies.
     Despite these you had two distinct groups of people who had vastly different outcomes as follows:
1) Those who believed that the disease was spread by close human contact. These people fled to the countryside and had a high survival rate.
2) Those who did not believe that the disease was spread by close human contact. These people stayed in the towns and cities. They gathered in large groups. They drank in pubs(bars). Their death rate was in the millions.
       Fast forward 670 years. You have some people who wear masks,  believe in social distancing, and avoid big crowds. You have others who refuse to wear masks and social distance. Now it is a rallying point for those with conservative political views and an anti-science attitude. We have a definite lack of political will in this country.
   Elena is optimistic and believes that a vaccine will be developed and ready to administer right after the presidential election in November. I am not so optimistic. The vaccine will not come until the middle part of 2021 or later.
      I have a prediction on the total number of US coronavirus deaths before a vaccine is available for mass immunizations- +/-1,500,000. I see a similar death rate for Brasil.

Thursday, July 2, 2020

Lessons Learned 670 Years Ago Could Help Us To Survive Coronavirus Now

DeCimarron is a book about the black plague that ended in 1350. Those who believed that the plague was spread by person to person contact fled to the countryside and survived. Those who did not believe that the disease was spread by person to person contact stayed in the cities and towns. They drank in bars, They gathered in big groups, They died in massive numbers. 670 years later we are making the same mistakes by disavowing marks and social distancing. There are words from a Peter, Paul, and Mary song from the 1960's that apply here:as follows:
"When will they ever learn? When will they ever learn?"