I am often astonished that people miss the obvious.
And the obvious here… is the Soviet Union.
It isn’t discussed much because the war did end in August 1945, but one of the things that Truman considered when dropping the bomb was the Soviet commitment to attacking Japan. The Americans knew Soviet intervention was coming, and when. Stalin wanted a cut of Japan and the Americans knew that.
The same day the second bomb dropped, the Soviet Union attacked Japanese forces in Manchuria. As part of that, they captured the Manchurian emperor Harry Pu Yi, and hooked up with Chinese Communist in Northeast China, further destabilizing China’s internal struggles. After the Japanese surrender, Russia stayed in Manchuria until the Chinese Communist takeover, handed over Pu Yi to the Communists, and patted themselves on the back for a job well done.
And in 1945, Korea was also under Japanese control. Guess who took the opportunity to send troops there too. Yep, the Soviet Union.
And in the subsequent peace treaty, the Soviets claimed some of Japan’s smaller islands.
The longer the war against Japan goes on, the more Japanese territory goes to the Soviet Union. Let’s look at a map.
Well look at that! Hokkaido, or “Soviet Japan” is right off the coast of Russia. It’s incredibly close to Sakhalin Island, which gives the Soviets an even closer staging point. It’s right near Vladivostok, the primary Soviet Pacific naval base.
Now, the two bombs and the attack by the Soviet Union forced Japan’s hand. Right up until August 9, 1945, the Japanese were pressing the Soviets to mediate a peace between Japan and the United States to avoid an occupation of Japan. The Soviet invasion caught Japan completely off guard and it’s roughly 1 million man army in Manchuria was pretty much completely defenseless. It was also totally useless for a defence of the home islands - there was no navy to get those men back to Japan.
So, even with no bombs, Japan is in a pickle. It’s now fighting a two front war with no fuel or ammunition. Although Japanese soldiers were willing to die, when the war got to Okinawa, many of the soldiers refused to put civilian women, children and the elderly at risk, even though they often said they would prefer to die along with the soldiers.
So, if the Japanese are obstinate, the best case scenario is even more of northern Japan goes to the Soviets. They get two occupying forces instead of one.
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