Attacking The Iranian Nuclear Enrichment Facility At Natanz

 

This morning let us play a war game. Ladies, I promise you that I will not put you to sleep. Some years ago, I was part of a study group led by a Chilean man named Gonzalo Lira. He is a Dartmouth graduate and a bright man. We studied various scenarios for a war with Iran. One segment concerned attacking Iranian nuclear facilities. Here is a report on the nuclear facilities that Iran has:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_facilities_in_Iran

     

       Known only to few people is that Iran is the best maker of concrete in the world. All the facilities are well dug in and fortified. Iran has a superior air defense system provided by the Russians.

     In the last few days there has been a discussion about a US attack on the uranium enrichment facility located at Natanz, Iran. Let us look at how an attack would play out. A conventional bombing attack with stealth bombers would not do much damage to this facility. There is one conventional weapon that would do the job. Its official title is GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator. This bomb weighs 30,000 lbs. It has the explosive power equal to the primitive nuclear bombs used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Here are some details on the bomb:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_Ordnance_Penetrator

    

     B-2 stealth bombers were retrofitted to carry 2 x 14,000 lb. MOP bombs. If planned and carried out right, a stealth bomber should be able to defeat the Iranian air defenses and deliver two bombs that would severely damage this facility. Such an attack would release radioactive materials in the area of the city of Natanz. Civilian casualties would be inevitable.

    One of my brightest readers claims that an attack would lead to World War III with the Russians. I have studied Russian history for five decades. I spent years doing business with major Russian companies. I have many Russian friends. Russian people are cautious and pragmatic by nature. One of their best characteristics is that they think long and carefully before making a serious move.

      Putin would protest loudly and growl. At the same time, he would,  as the saying in English goes: "Be laughing all the way to the bank." He would sell billions of dollars in military equipment to the Iranians. As oil prices went up, he would make profits selling oil. (We will talk further about this in a minute.)

        Conventional wisdom says that the Iranians would move immediately to close the Straits of Hormuz and disrupt oil flow to India, Japan, and China. If they did this, another old English saying comes into play: "They would be cutting off their nose to spite their face." They would lose their number-one source of revenue. The Iranian navy would make life "hell on earth" for the US Navy in the area. The US would get hit with some serious cyberattacks.

     The oil flow would be cut by nervous insurance companies that would withdraw insurance cover from oil tankers operating in the Straits of Hormuz. India and Japan would be hurt badly. China has "a backdoor deal" with Russia. Russian oil would be supplied to the Chinese over land with no need to use the sea lanes or oil tankers.

    Such an attack would set back the Iranian nuclear program a couple of years at the cost of huge damage to financial markets and a serious loss of life.