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Thursday, March 24, 2022

Could A Russian Cyberattack Take Down The U.S. Air Traffic Control System?

       Elena flies to Hawaii in 6 days. She is concerned about one possible problem. While she is in the air over the Pacific Ocean, Russian hackers stage a cyberattack and take down the US air traffic control system. Her tough question to me is:

"How do they land the plane without air traffic control?"

      Some eight years ago, I was at Aeroparque Airport in Buenos Aires on a cold winter afternoon. After a long business trip in Argentina, I was getting ready to return to Sao Paulo, spend time with you Anna, and fly back to San Francisco.

     As I waited at my gate to board my flight, I heard a loud and explosive "pop!" It seemed as if a giant lightning strike had hit the airport. All monitors went dead. The electricity went off. There was a deathly silence everywhere. People then got angry. Finally, an announcement was made that all flights were canceled, and we all needed to leave the airport.

     Hundreds of people were in the airport. All of them had checked out of their hotels. Now they were going to have to find a hotel room to stay in for who knows how many days? In my case, I had a wonderful relationship with the staff of a boutique hotel where I stayed. I was able to get my room back. I had no idea of how long I would be stuck in Buenos Aires.

         The truth soon came out. Air traffic controllers in Argentina were in a labor dispute with management. They had staged a shutdown of the air traffic control system as a protest. When they "pulled the plug" on the air traffic control system, several planes were still in the air. These controllers took great care to make sure that each plane was guided in and landed safely. No aircraft crashed. No passengers were injured.

    On the following morning, I went to the Lan Chile office. I got the guarded good news that I would be able to fly out in two days to Sao Paulo. I was given a new air ticket at no cost to me. My ongoing flights back to the US were changed at no charge to me.

      It was a cold and stormy Wednesday when I boarded the flight to Sao Paulo. We lifted off during a violent rainstorm. The five-hour flight was full of turbulence and zero visibility. I prayed that the air traffic controllers were back at work and doing their job. I was so relieved when I landed at the main Sao Paulo airport.

    I did some research. At any given moment, some 5,000 airliners are in the air over the US. The Federal Aviation Administration air traffic controllers do a superb job of managing this large number of large and complex aircraft. If they were taken out of the picture, pandemonium would follow. I am sure that most pilots have trained for a contingency like this. They would have to navigate to their destination airports. Perhaps local airport personnel could "talk them down." I'm sure that midair collisions and crashes would happen. Those lucky enough to land would be stranded until the air traffic control system could be brought back online. If the average airliner has 250 passengers, we can multiply this by 5,000 to get an estimate of 1,250,000 passengers. Imagine the huge job of changing travel plans for a large part of these passengers. Many would have to be housed in hotels for an indefinite period. the costs would be staggering.

     Please do not lose sleep over this possibility. It is a low-probability event. On the other hand, Vladimir Putin is a vicious and vindictive man who cannot stand to lose. He has absolutely no regard for human life He is capable of ordering such a cyberattack.

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