The War In Ukraine ANd The Imminent Impact On Food Supplies-What You Need To Know

 

The War in Ukraine and the Imminent Impact on Food Supplies... What You Need To Know

by Chris MacIntosh

Everyone understands by now that Russia is a large energy producer, but what many don’t know is that when they sit down at the dinner table at night, the entire supply chain (aside from the energy required for transportation) that gets them that dinner involves Russia and Ukraine to a frightening degree.

Our current globally integrated food supply system and mass food production cannot exist without, among other things, fertilizer.

This includes three main categories: nitrogen, potash, and phosphorus fertilizers. Potash is a potassium-rich salt fertilizer that enhances plant quality and is responsible for 20% of global fertilizer demand.

Together with Belarus, Russia has a 40% market share in global production and export of potash fertilizer. What OPEC+ is to the oil market, Belarus and Russia are to the potash market. The two monopolies in this space are Uralkali and Belaruskali, with the Belarusian Potash Company being the latter’s export arm.

With 16.5% of the nitrogen fertilizer market, Russia may not appear to be that dominant until we look at the key ingredient (ammonium nitrate) and then we realize… oh, yes it is. Why? Russia holds a whopping 66% of the global market share in the production of this chemical, and without it there’s no nitrogen fertilizer.

All this matters a great deal for those of us who like to eat, because last month the Russkies imposed an export ban on the ammonium nitrate mentioned above. Their reasoning, true or not, was to ensure an affordable supply for its own farmers. This ban comes off in April 2022.

"Fine, what’s a few weeks to wait," you might ask.

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