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Saturday, July 30, 2022

Two Very Troubling Cases Of Identity Fraud

      Most of us are familiar with identity fraud. Some criminal gets your personal information. They start getting credit cards and other loans in your name. This can cause you huge legal problems and financial losses. A lot of this danger can be eliminated by investing a small amount of money in a service that monitors your credit report.

      There are other and more sinister cases of identity theft that I have uncovered. In the first case, a Brasilian man named Richard Cesar Guedes obtained the birth certificate of a young child named Eric Ladd who died in a car crash in 1979. He obtained a Social Security account, Texas driver's license, and US passport in this deceased child's name. He went to work at United Airlines. He worked for 23 years as a flight attendant until his fraud was detected. (Probably an informant with a grudge against him turned him in) Guedes was arrested by US State Department officers. Amazingly the security checks required of airline employees including fingerprinting did not detect the fraud. Guedes was sentenced to 7 months in jail and will be deported. One wonders what will happen to all the money in his 401(K)-retirement fund and any benefits he has coming from Social Security. What if some terrorist has done the same thing and got on a plane to blow it up or worse?

     A second case is much more bizarre and troubling. Two Russian KGB agents infiltrated into the US with stolen birth certificates of two dead children with the names Walter Glenn Primrose and Gwynn Darle Morrison. Walter enlisted in the US Coast Guard and served 20 years as an avionics technician before retiring. He then worked as a civilian contractor for the Coast Guard in Hawaii with a high-level security clearance. For those of you really curious, here is a link:

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/kgb-photo-deepens-mystery-of-us-coast-guard-vet-and-wife-who-stole-dead-babies-identities-feds-say

    

     When one enters the US military, their fingerprints are taken. If they are going to work in any sensitive area, they obtain a secret security clearance. This clearance is simple to obtain. One's name is run through several US government computers to see if they have had any problems. A top-secret security clearance is required when one works around the most sensitive areas. When I was in the US Navy and stationed at the Bureau of Naval Personnel, I got an offer of a job at the White House. A top-secret security clearance was required. I filled out a detailed questionnaire. I was interviewed by an FBI agent. My whole life was investigated. An agent even went to Alcott Elementary School that I had attended. A minor discrepancy was detected. I was questioned about this discrepancy. I apologized that my memory had slipped after all those years. I was granted a top-secret clearance. I declined the job offer because I would be required to reenlist in the US Navy for two additional years.

     One must wonder how these Russian agents survived all these security checks including a rigorous FBI check. An even more troubling question arises. How many more Russian, Chinese, and Iranian agents have used these birth certificates of deceased US citizens to infiltrate into far more sensitive places than the US Coast Guard? I will leave all of you to reflect on this.

Ukraine: The New Satellite War - Digital Eye

Retired general: Ukraine's next move could put Russia in a dilemma

Friday, July 29, 2022

The CHIPS Act Does Not Solve All Semiconductor Problems

 

ASSESSMENTS

The CHIPS Act Won’t Reduce the U.S.’s Strategic Reliance on the Global Semiconductor Sector

7 MIN READJul 28, 2022 | 20:16 GMT

U.S. President Joe Biden participates virtually in a meeting on the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) for America Act on July 25, 2022.

U.S. President Joe Biden participates virtually in a meeting on the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) for America Act on July 25, 2022.

(Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

The latest U.S. bill to support the domestic semiconductor industry will struggle to reduce the United States’ reliance on foreign chipmakers and suggests Congress is unwilling to impose strict controls on companies looking to invest in China. On July 27, lawmakers in the U.S. Senate passed the $280 billion the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act, which subsidizes U.S.-made semiconductor chips and boosts investments in cutting-edge science and technology initiatives. U.S. President Joe Biden strongly supports the bill, which he argues will create more jobs for Americans by incentivizing more firms to manufacture chips in the United States. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the bill on July 28, sending it to Biden’s desk. 

  • The CHIPS Act portion of the bill allocates $50 billion in subsidies for the CHIPS for America fund to bolster the U.S. semiconductor industry — including by building new chip fabrication plants, expanding research and development (R&D) efforts, and supporting workforce development — as well as an additional $2 billion in subsidies for the CHIPS for America Defense fund to bolster projects specific to the U.S. defense sector. The CHIPS Act portion also includes $700 million in subsidies for various other semiconductor-related funds.
  • The science portion of the bill includes a wide range of measures, including increasing financial support for several programs being run by the U.S. Department of Energy, like those related to carbon storage and nuclear power. The bill also establishes new mechanisms and incentives designed to boost the United States’ STEM workforce, and provides additional funding for a number of NASA programs. 

The passage of the bill in Congress comes after more than a year of legislative debate and dialogue with U.S. business leaders on how to support the semiconductor industry in the wake of the disruptive global chip shortage and the growing competition with China. For lawmakers, the chip shortage was a visible example of how far the United States had fallen in semiconductor manufacturing, despite its dominance in key areas of the industry like semiconductor design and R&D. The bill itself borrows from a number of predecessor bills that have been introduced but not passed, including the Endless Frontiers Act and the United States Innovation and Competition Act (USICA), since the semiconductor shortage began in 2020. However, the CHIPS and Science Act stands a greater chance of passage in part because it represents a watered-down version of previous bills. It is also more likely to pass because U.S. officials have pointed to the hollowing out of the U.S. semiconductor industry as a national security risk, particularly as China tries to make strides in developing its semiconductor industry. Even so, some Republicans and Democrats have still criticized the new CHIPS and Science Act, highlighting how divisive the issue has become and the number of iterations it has gone through.

  • Between 1990 and 2021, the U.S. share of global semiconductor production fell from 37% to just 12%, according to data from the U.S. Semiconductor Industry Association. This drop has coincided with the rise of chip manufacturing in Asia, which now accounts for roughly 75-80% of global semiconductor production. 
  • Democratic Senator and former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has criticized the bill for what he accuses of enabling “crony capitalism” by providing subsidies to companies that are already making billions of dollars in profits. 
  • Republican and fiscally conservative voices in the United States have also expressed concern about the cost of the new CHIPS and Science Act, which expands on what was originally a $76 billion bill for semiconductors subsidies and tax credits to authorize billions of dollars of more funding for other projects — with The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board recently calling it a “spendorama.”

If signed into law by Biden (as expected), the CHIPS Act portion of the bill will increase domestic semiconductor manufacturing. But this is unlikely to significantly reduce the United States’ overall reliance on the global semiconductor industry. Intel and other semiconductor manufacturers will certainly take advantage of the extra financial assistance offered by the tax credits and subsidies to boost production in the United States. But any new investments in U.S. fabrication plants are likely to still pale in comparison to global investment in the sector. While $52 billion is a large sum, it can cost anywhere between $10-15 billion to build a single semiconductor manufacturing facility, illustrating the limits of the bill’s funding. Taiwan’s TSMC, for example — the largest contract semiconductor manufacturer — is planning to invest $100 billion alone over the next three years to keep up with demand. The semiconductor industry is also highly segmented as different companies concentrate on specific parts of the industry or types of chips, which makes it difficult for Washington to create legislation that supports all of the necessary areas of investment. Moreover, chip fabrication is just one of many parts of the semiconductor value chain. Even if the United States has more fabrication plants, semiconductor packaging and testing, key raw material inputs and manufacturing equipment would still need to be imported.

  • The recent global energy shortage and rise in oil prices offer a cautionary tale about how domestic production does not necessarily isolate a country from global market conditions in a globalized industry. From 2012-2020, U.S. politicians lauded the growth of domestic oil and gas production, saying it boosted U.S. energy security. But the 2021-22 energy crunch, highlighted how that domestic growth failed to significantly protect the United States from international market conditions during global crises (like the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine). The same would likely be true in the semiconductor industry, which, like the energy sector, is also highly globalized

Proposals that were ultimately left out of the final version of the bill also highlight that Congress may not have enough support for more aggressive measures to slow the advancement of China’s semiconductor industry, as well as deter U.S. (and Western) companies from investing in strategic industries in China. The final version of the bill left out a proposal to create an outbound screening mechanism for foreign direct investments that would have allowed a new review board to block investments into countries like China over national security concerns. The mechanism would have been similar to one that currently allows the U.S. government to review the national security risks of investments in the United States, such as if a Chinese company sought to acquire a U.S. semiconductor firm. However, various business leaders and some U.S. lawmakers in Congress criticized the outbound investment screening mechanism for giving the government too big of a role in the private sector. Moreover, there were also concerns over the vagueness of what would constitute a national security risk, given that former President Donald Trump had placed tariffs on steel and aluminum on U.S. allies with what most observers called a dubious national security argument. To assuage these fears, the final version of the bill only scrutinizes outbound investments in the semiconductor industry itself, rather than more holistically covering outbound investments in other key emerging technologies. It does so in the context of wanting to ensure that the government funding provided by the act does not lead to investments in China. Tech companies, however, will still be free to invest in other strategic Chinese sectors, which is why some U.S. lawmakers have called for a broader mechanism than what is currently included in the bill. 

  • If Biden signs the the CHIPS and Science Act into law, companies that seek funding under the bill must enter an agreement with the U.S. Commerce Department that they will not make transactions that lead to a “material expansion” in China’s semiconductor manufacturing capacity over the next ten years. But the bill includes clear exemptions for investments into legacy chips (defined as those from the 28-nanometer generation or 

Thursday, July 28, 2022

Is Ukraine about to launch an attack on Russia? | Major General Jack Keane

Playing Russian Roulette With Russia's Nuclear Arsenal

      Yesterday I discussed the potential transfer/sale of aircraft to the Ukraine Air Force. I love and appreciate responses from our readers. One reader is always concerned about the Ukraine conflict getting out of hand with Putin resorting to nuclear weapons. In my opinion, as long as we in the West do not do something really stupid, that will not happen. Two months ago, I was privileged to have lunch with Professor William Craft Brumfield. He is the department head of the Russian Studies section at Tulane University. He speaks Russian fluently. He has been a personal friend of Vladimir Putin for over 20 years. Putin decorated him with the highest medal the Russian state can give to a foreigner-The Friendship Medal. When I asked him if he saw a nuclear war coming with Russia, he calmly responded:

       "Putin is a sane and rational man. He would not resort to the use of nuclear weapons."

    When our reader raised the prospect of Ukraine turning into a nuclear conflict, I quoted Professor Brumfield. I then made a joke as follows:

    If I was the US president and heard that Putin had gone to DEFCON ONE and was ready to launch nuclear weapons, I would make the following comment to Putin:

     "Vlad, I sure hope that your nuclear weapons work better than your conventional weapons have worked in Ukraine."

    I absorb a large amount of data each day. In the afternoon I came across an obscure report on the current status of the Russian nuclear arsenal. It painted a picture of a lot of warheads that had decayed to the point where they would not work correctly. Some thermonuclear (hydrogen) bombs would only detonate as atomic bombs. Other warheads would not detonate at all.

       I shared this information with Elena. Without wasting a second, she responded:

      "This tells me that they never were really serious about using such weapons."

           I will leave all of you to reflect on this.

Wednesday, July 27, 2022

The REAL Story Behind THE FINAL COUNTDOWN

The Ukraine Air Force Just Got Some Good News!

      The Ukraine Air Force got some good news that I want to share with all of you. Slovakia is just about ready to donate 11 Mig-29s to Ukraine. US defense officials have changed their minds and are ready to give US jet fighters and ground attack aircraft to the Ukraine Air Force. They have told Ukraine officials: "Tell us what planes you want and we will work out a deal."

        I'm proud that one of our readers is a Ukraine pilot. Denys asked me what plane I would recommend for the Ukraine Air Force. I did not have to think about it long and hard. I told him the A-10 Warthog. For those of you curious, here is an excellent video on this aircraft that has been in service with the U.S. Air Force and Air National Guard units for 50 years:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5us5ce56YHo

 

     The A-10 is the kind of plane that I love. It is easy to fly. It is easy to maintain. It can operate out of rugged airfields. It is tough and can take a lot of punishment. It was designed as "a tank killer." Its only weakness is that it is an easy target for very advanced air defense systems like the SA-300, SA-400, and SA-500. This weakness can be overcome!

 

After HIMARS, The A-10 Warthog Will Could Be A Game Changer In Ukraine

Gen. Keane: This is a major move by Ukrainians

Can western heavy weapons turn the tide in Ukraine? | Ukriane latest

Sunday, July 24, 2022

Big Setbacks And Defeats Often Happen To Us In Life For Reasons That Are Not Revealed Until Much Later

      Many of you in the northern hemisphere are experiencing great heat today. One pool friend talked about family members in Alberta experiencing 109-degree Fahrenheit days. My sister and one of our readers is experiencing days with 107 degree Fahrenheit temperature.

        In almost seventy-four years of life, I have learned one lesson. What looks like a defeat or a bad setback happens for a reason that you only see much later. Elena and I moved into his house on January 21, 2004. It was falling apart. It was a disaster. Elena and I both were used to climates with sunny and beautiful days. I endured the fog and cool weather. Elena despised it. She was complaining all the time.

    The higher power that guides our life had a reason for this. Now it is clear. Our daily temperatures stay in the 50-60 Fahrenheit range. The fog keeps vegetation wet. We do not have fires. In the hills just above us, fires have broken out. We have no problems with insurance for the house. People above us have seen their insurance premiums go up dramatically or have faced cancellation of their insurance. According to climate models, as the sea levels rise, the Pacific Ocean will be touching Highway One by the year 2100 (Assuming no intervention to control sea level rise-California send your engineers to Holland!!!!) Our house will still be above the ocean. We sit on solid rock which means we would ride an earthquake well.

     One of our readers sold us this house. At first, I was very disappointed in him. Now he is a hero in our eyes.

     If you're in hot weather, find some relief from the heat. It might be a good day to take in several movies back-to-back or to have a long 3-4 hour lunch in a cool restaurant.

Saturday, July 23, 2022

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Despite The Ukraine/Russia Grain Export Agreement, The U.S. And Other Countries Face Food Shortages Going Forward

      Yesterday, I was overjoyed that Russia and Ukraine had reached an agreement to allow up to 22 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain to be exported. The New York Times celebrated this agreement this morning.

     Barron's Magazine came out with a warning article this morning that big food shortages are going to be a part of our lives for a while. Here is the complete article:

y Lisa BeilfussFollowing

July 22, 2022 2:30 pm ET

 

Solar farms like this one in Andrews County, Texas, are gobbling up prime farmland. Some observers see a long-term threat to the nation’s food supply.

Matthew Busch/Bloomberg

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Length7 minutes

 

As financial markets and media remain focused on recession timing and debate over when the Federal Reserve will flip to cutting interest rates, growing threats to the U.S. food supply—exacerbated by government policy—go underappreciated.

 

Concerns of a global food shortage have been mounting given the war in Ukraine and the huge amounts of fertilizer, wheat, and other food-related exports that come from that region. Many economists and strategists say a food shortage can’t happen here. After all, the U.S. produces most of its own food and roughly half of domestic land is used for agricultural production, according to the Food and Drug Administration. There are several overlapping reasons, however, why America shouldn’t take a sufficient food supply for granted.

 

Eva Slatter, a farrier in Emory, Texas, travels from farm to farm to take care of horses’ hoofs and has a small farm of her own. Her neighbor is selling his herd of cows, and a local livestock auction earlier this month brought out more trailers than she had ever seen, with ranchers looking to sell backed up for miles. Record temperatures and the worst drought in more than a decade mean there isn’t grass for the animals to eat, and hay—the alternative—is tough to come by as higher fuel costs make it harder to transport from other states. The cost of hay in her area is around $220 a roll, compared with about $45 in normal times and $120 in a typical drought year, she says.

 

“None of the ranchers I know want to get out, but they have to,” Slatter says of the livestock liquidation. “Everybody is selling because they can’t feed them, and no one is buying the cows to raise.” That suggests more meat and lower prices in the near term. But the Texas Farm Bureau said in a report this past week that with much of the current breeding herd going to processing plants, calf numbers will fall in years ahead. As Slatter puts it, if everyone sells out of cattle now, what are we going to do later on?

 

About 250 miles away from Slatter, Stephen Brantley is getting nervous—but for a different reason. Brantley, a longtime banker at Waggoner National Bank in Vernon, Texas, says his bank has been fielding calls lately from farmers approached by solar companies interested in their land. First the companies ask to test the land over about a year, during which time the farmer can continue growing crops such as wheat. Then, if the testing goes well, the solar company either offers to buy the land or lease it for 20 to 30 years.

 

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The offers are hard to refuse. Farmland often best meets solar-site requirements, and Brantley says solar companies are paying as much as $800 an acre in his area of the wheat belt for leases that last for decades. That’s $512,000 a year for a section of land—640 acres—an attractive lifeline for farmers increasingly strapped by rising input prices and unfavorable weather. There is also a precedent. Wind came in about 15 years ago and turbines proliferated in the area, overall a net positive, Brantley says. But unlike wind, which is less lucrative and can coexist with crops, solar is pretty zero sum. “I know how fast it can happen. I’m afraid this thing might snowball. If solar catches on like wind did, all this cultivated land will go out of production,” says Brantley.

 

So far solar hasn’t started to really move into the Midwest, where the soil is considered superior, says University of Illinois ag professor Nick Paulson. It makes sense, he says, for solar companies to be more aggressive in a place like Texas given the relative quality of the farmland and more pervasive droughts. Still, Texas and Oklahoma represent about a quarter of planted acres of wheat in the U.S.

 

One part of the story is that investors have sought farmland as an inflation hedge. Bill Gates, the largest private owner of U.S. farmland, said on social-media platform Reddit earlier this year that his investment group is buying the land. A May report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said agricultural land values in the region surged 23% in the first quarter from a year earlier as investors bought a rising share of some of the country’s best farmland. Strategic Solar Group, which brokers land, says the high end of the average solar-farm lease is $2,000 an acre.

 

Another part of the story involves the government’s green agenda. While President Biden’s climate legislation suffered a new setback when Sen. Joe Manchin this month pulled his support, some lawmakers and analysts predict Biden will issue executive actions. To achieve Biden’s goal for 100% clean electricity in the U.S. by 2035, the Energy Department says solar deployment will need to quadruple. Land.com, a marketplace for rural real estate, says generating electricity solely from solar farms would take 13 million acres—or double that to account for energy storage, electric vehicle charging stations, and the necessary increase in electrical infrastructure. Apart from business incentives, government subsidies and tax credits also help explain why solar companies are aggressively seeking land.

 

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Biden has pushed solar further into the mainstream than ever before, says Texas A&M University law and engineering professor Felix Mormann. There is lots of merit to seeking reduced emissions, cleaner air, and cheaper energy. But, Mormann asks, who ultimately pays for public spending on this scale and who will reap the economic benefits? The flip side of that question: At whose expense will those economic benefits be reaped?

 

Already, Americans have seen double-digit price increases in food categories this year. In the latest consumer price index report, meats, poultry, fish, and eggs leapt 12% from a year earlier as bread rose 11% and milk increased 16%. That’s occurring as the U.S. Census Bureau has found about a 10th of Americans don’t have enough to eat.

 

News of a deal between Russia and Ukraine to resume Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea should cool some commodity prices. But Paulson at the University of Illinois says falling food-commodity prices may not easily translate to less expensive food, in part because still-high oil makes up such a big portion of U.S. food costs. Given the short supply of domestic oil, together with the impact of severe droughts and the war in Ukraine, the timing of solar’s encroachment on U.S. farmland may be cause for concern.

 

Write to Lisa Beilfuss at lisa.beilfuss@barrons.com

Mooch's DCS Hacks: F-14B Case I Procedures

Friday, July 22, 2022

20 minutes ago! Ukraine sank a Russian ship with Harpoon and Exocet miss...

Laos A Hard Lesson And A Warning For All Of Us!

 

The Trains To Nowhere

LAOS

When Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt in May, as the BBC reported, the resulting loss in confidence in the government led a mob to occupy the presidential palace and mansion. Photos in National Public Radio captured Sri Lankans hanging out in sumptuous offices, partying in the president’s pool and even using his gym.

As the mob shared pictures of his residence, impoverished Sri Lankans living amid food and medicine shortages became furious, forcing Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country and then resign when he realized it was game over.

The episode showed how quickly an economic crisis could transition into a full-scale political and social revolution. A decade ago, Sri Lanka was still emerging from a 26-year civil war and was hailed as an Asian success story. Now, given how Sri Lanka’s crisis occurred due to excessive Chinese lending, the Wall Street Journal wrote, analysts are wondering which other countries might be next to enter into periods of chaos and instability. Many are worried about Laos.

Credit rating agencies and World Bank analyses recently warned that Laos is flirting with default due to two factors, Voice of America reported. First, rising energy costs due to the Russo-Ukraine War, higher US interest rates and other post-pandemic disruptions have caused the local currency to plunge in value. Meanwhile, the country must continue to service massive debts on Chinese-funded infrastructure projects.

Part of China’s Belt and Road initiative to improve trade routes between Asia, Africa and Europe, the projects include more than 600 miles of railways, hospitals, energy projects as well as collaboration in education, finance and other sectors explained China Daily, an English-language newspaper owned by the Chinese Communist Party.

Upheavals can result when such massive investment leads to bankruptcy and financial chaos, however, as Sri Lanka illustrates. Already, Laos’ passport office said it couldn’t cope with the massive uptick in Laotians seeking these documents in order to flee the country for work elsewhere, Malaysia’s the Star Online, reported. It’s no wonder, though, when the price of food and other necessities has jumped almost 25 percent.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Phankham Viphavanh has admitted that corruption is the main driver of Laos’ situation: He told the National Assembly last month “that embezzlement by executives and staff, combined with poor management, are the main reasons for the chronic losses racked-up by 178 state enterprises,” the Diplomat reported.

At the same time, the International Federation of Human Rights lamented the lack of progress in tolerating free speech, political dissidence and other rights in Laos. But many Laotians have become disgruntled enough to air their opinions. That’s in one of the world’s poorest, most isolated countries where the population has been cowed for decades.

“People are losing their fear and not scared to be openly critical because the economic crisis is affecting their daily lives,” wrote an anonymous Laotian in a social media post quoted in Nikkei Asia. “Social media is the only avenue they can do so in Laos’ repressive political environment.”

Despite that sentiment, Bloomberg predicted that the ruling Lao People’s Revolutionary Party would weather the crisis, describing the party as a “secretive communist regime that’s had an ironclad grip on power since 1975,” two years after the US ended its secret bombing runs over the country in the Vietnam War. That said, Laotian officials, perhaps reaching for a safety valve, have scheduled minimum wage hikes to help ameliorate the cost-of-living crisis, noted Radio Free Asia. And there are rumblings of some high-level heads to be sacrificed, Bloomberg noted.

That move could be the first of many that the regime and its critics make.

Ukraine Will Be Allowed To Export Its 22 Million Metric Ton Wheat Crop!

      Some wondrous news this morning. An agreement has been reached to allow Ukraine to export its 22 million metric tons wheat crop. Ships carrying the wheat will proceed through the Black Sea. They will be inspected at Turkey checkpoints to make sure that they are caring only wheat. An unnamed third country will escort the wheat-carrying ships and provide mine sweeping services.

   Elena asked if Ukraine would get the money from the sale of the wheat. The answer appears to be "yes." This will be a big "shot in the arm" moneywise for Ukraine farmers. It will also ease hunger and the potential for starvation in North Africa and the Middle East. I suspect that Russia accepted the deal on the condition that they could export their very large wheat crop without interference from sanctions.

        There is that old saying in English as follows:

       "There's no news like good news!"

5 minutes ago! Russia is on fire!

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Thursday, July 21, 2022

Many US Citizens Are Moving To Europe For Cheaper Housing

      True to my promise, I'm always out there hunting for obscure stories that other media outlets miss or do not take seriously. Bloomberg came out with a surprising article stating that Americans are moving to Europe to lower housing prices. Here is the article if you are curious:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-20/americans-moving-to-europe-housing-prices-and-strong-dollar-fuel-relocations

    I found this fascinating. At one point I had given serious thought to moving Elena and me to Norway. I researched the housing market there. It was slightly more pricey than the San Francisco Bay area. I'm quite familiar with the Southern British housing market. The area around London is just as expensive as the Bay area. The same can be said for Switzerland.

     Many people have been “locked out" of the US housing market. I bought my first house in Falls Church, Virginia, in February of 1972 (I was 24 years old.) The price was a rousing $22,000 US. Since I was an active-duty military person, I got a 100% loan to buy the property. My house payment was a couple of hundred dollars a month.

     Young people in the US and other countries today face a harsh and different reality. Housing prices have gone up geometrically. There is also an acute shortage of houses for sale. Around where we live, the average house goes for well in excess of one million US. Most purchases are "all cash deals" (Very wealthy people and people who have sold a prior high-priced house and are flush with cash.) Even if someone wanted to finance a purchase with a mortgage (bond for my British friends) the monthly payments would be staggering. Owners selling houses would not wait for the cumbersome process of getting a loan approved.

    In many other US cities, there used to be low-cost housing where young people could buy their "starter home" and start to build equity and move on to a larger house later.

     Now massive investment companies buy up these cheaper homes hundreds at a time. They fix these homes up and rent them for high prices. Many young people see themselves being trapped as renters for life.

    I have no political agenda. I try to keep politics out of my reporting. I want to be both informative and entertaining. I have warned repeatedly that there are a massive number of people not only in the US but in a lot of other countries who feel that they have been left behind as others prospered. This is a recipe for some serious violence and social unrest. I have warned both US political parties to start listening to these people carefully! Neither party is handling this situation right now!!!

 

Wednesday, July 20, 2022

Ukraine- "The One-Million Casualty War??"

    Some sad news has come out of this Tehran summit. Iran changed course and decided to sell "several hundred" military drones to Russia. Some pundits claim that President Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia deeply upset the Iranian leadership.

     Love them or hate them, Iranians can be excellent engineers. Their drones will be effective. Ukraine is becoming a testing ground where many different countries can test their military equipment in a real war.

    Neither Ukraine nor Russia will be honest about their civilian and military losses. I suspect that Russia has had around 40,000 military personnel killed and another 120,000 wounded. I suspect that Ukraine has similar losses. I can only rely on a statistic saying that for each military death on the battlefield, 8 civilians die. This means we could have already had 320,000 Ukrainian civilian deaths. What I see coming is a repeat of the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s with over one million casualties.

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Tuesday, July 19, 2022

Ukraine-Some Good News And A Baffling Mystery

       Ukraine got good news yesterday. Holland is sending them 500 tanks. There was also a bizarre announcement from the President of Ukraine. The Attorney General and the woman who heads their CIA were relieved of duty. They are accused of being Russian sympathizers. Many treason charges are in the works. Any criminal trial will be held "in camera." There will be the deepest secrecy. There is one troubling aspect of the case for me. The number one assassination target of the Russians is Ukrainian President Zelenskky. There have been numerous assassination teams sent to kill him. All have failed and the players have been executed. Russia would love to get some coordinates to fire a missile and kill Zelenskky and decapitate the Ukraine government. Why didn't one of these alleged traitors tell the Russians exactly where to strike him? I will leave you to reflect on that.

Monday, July 18, 2022

Chechnyans Are Fighting On Both Sides In Ukraine!

 

Mirror Image

CHECHNYA

The Russian republic of Chechnya is intimately intertwined with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Having battled Russian forces in an unsuccessful bid for independence in the 1990s, Chechens know what it’s like to be on the receiving end of Moscow’s military might. But from that experience, they also know how to dole out punishment against Russian forces.

At present, Chechens are fighting on both sides of the Russo-Ukrainian War, reported the Washington Post. Some are helping Ukraine resist Russia, citing their experiences fighting against Kremlin leaders’ imperial designs. These people are especially courageous, argued France 24, because they face imprisonment and torture if they fall into the hands of Russian soldiers or Chechen militia units allied with Russia.

Meanwhile, many Chechen fighters from the Muslim-majority region in the Caucasus Mountains are part of a so-called shadow mobilization to bolster the Russian army’s flagging manpower, Radio Free Europe explained. The Caucasus, incidentally, has Russia’s lowest living standards and income levels.

Chechen Republic leader Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin who once fought against Russia as a separatist guerilla, has asked the Russian military to request more Chechen troops to fight in Ukraine to “get even with our blood enemies,” added Newsweek.

Despite the attraction of a military paycheck, Chechen officials seeking to fill quotas or demonstrate loyalty to Putin have also allegedly used “intimidation, blackmail, or threats of torture and kidnapping” to compel men to “volunteer” for military service, the Moscow Times wrote.

And as the fighting rages, other parallels are developing between Chechnya and Ukraine. “Images of the devastated city of Mariupol are eerily reminiscent of Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, which was leveled by Russian forces in a brutal war that went through two phases in the mid-1990s and the early 2000s,” wrote CNN.

Putin’s plan for Ukraine is similar to what he has created in Chechnya, argued Armenia-based journalist Neil Hauser in the Atlantic. The Russian president wants to demolish cities to demonstrate Russian power and suzerainty, install dependable local rulers like Kadyrov and create an atmosphere of fear that destroys civil society and the political landscape, making people easier to rule.

Researchers at the Wilson Center, a Washington-based think tank, also believe that the conflicts in Ukraine and Chechnya echoed one another. High levels of civilian deaths, war crimes and propaganda wars marked both wars, they added.

These two conflicts may have many parallels. But the ending to the conflict in Ukraine has yet to be written.


Zelenskyy fires top officials for collusion with Russia | DW News

Our Beloved German Shephard Alfred Has A Life-Threatening Health Crisis

      As some of you know our beloved family member, Alfred the German Shepherd is experiencing a life-threatening health crisis. A small lesion developed on his right front leg. He started licking and scratching it non-stop. It reached the point that we took him to an emergency veterinary clinic yesterday. An initial physical examination and series of X-Rays indicated that Alfred had a malignant tumor in the bone of his right leg. It would be a terminal event for him. We were shocked and heartbroken. Later in the day, the doctors reversed their original diagnosis and were not sure that Alfred's tumor was malignant. We go tomorrow to get a biopsy,

      Some years ago, I had gone to the funerals of two incredible professional women (the mayor of Millbrae, California, and one of Elena's doctor colleagues) who had never smoked but both died of lung cancer in their mid-50s. I got a shocking diagnosis. A small growth was detected in the lower part of one of my lungs. A Pulmonologist made the diagnosis that there was a 90%+ chance that it was malignant. I was face to face with my mortality. I was going to die in my mid-60s. I would follow in my father's footsteps. I would die due to lung problems.

   Elena spent 16 years as a cancer doctor in Argentina. She looked at my CT scans of the growth on my lung. She saw no sparkling speckles around the growth. She told me that most likely the growth was not malignant.

    A treatment regime was initiated. Every six months I would go in for a CT scan of the growth. The goal was to see if the growth got larger. In two years, the growth did not get larger. My life was not going to end due to lung cancer.

    With Alfred, Elena came up with the idea of using radiation therapy to lengthen Alfred's life while providing a good quality of life for him. There is some hope!

 

Sunday, July 17, 2022

Fareed's take: The West risks failure in Ukraine

China Is Now #1 In The World In Industrial Capoacity!!

     There is a fascinating article in the newspaper today about China opening a corn mill in the heart of the US agricultural country. It emphasizes that our economies have become tightly intertwined and one dependent on the other.

    You have heard me talk about Ward Carroll numerous times. Dad Ned Carroll was a colonel in the U.S. Marine Corps with a distinguished record of flying jets in combat. When it came time to go to college, Ward chose the US Navy Academy. He had to try very hard to get in. He was determined to follow in his father's footsteps and become a fighter pilot. He graduated from the Naval Academy with a degree in political science. He reported to flight school. He got the bad news that he would never be a pilot due to a defect in his eyesight. Ward, one never to quit, was determined to fly fighters. He opted to become a Naval Flight Officer. He would sit in the back seat of a fighter and fire the missiles, etc. Ward earned his wings. He spent 15 years flying F-14s off aircraft carrier decks. He saw combat missions in Desert Storm and the Iraqi war. He migrated to being a flight instructor. He did a good job and ended up as an instructor at the US Navy Academy.

     Ward wrote a novel titled "Punk's War" about F-14s flying off aircraft carrier decks. Getting a novel published is like "winning the lottery." Ward's first book got published by a serious publisher. He wrote two other books. He found himself sought out by television news services. He was often interviewed as a military expert.

    Ward rose to the rank of commander. He retired after 20 years in the US Navy. He reinvented himself on the internet. He did such a good job that the U.S Naval Institute hired him to run their web-based operations. Ward developed a great podcast. I joined. Every few days he talks about military history. He gives briefings on current military situations.

   A few days ago, Ward got concerned about China building a third aircraft carrier. It will be nuclear-powered. It will have electromagnetic catapults to launch aircraft. The ship as well as its aircraft appear to be copied from US designs.

    Ward made a surprising statement. China now has more industrial capacity than the US. They can build a ship faster than we can. We have been the industrial powerhouse of the world for 80 years. Now China is surpassing us.

    Did Ward see a war coming between the US and China? No, he said that the two economies were too intertwined. We will have fierce competition.

  

Friday, July 15, 2022

Long-Classified U.S. Estimates of Nuclear War Casualties During the Cold War Regularly Underestimated Deaths and Destruction | National Security Archive

Long-Classified U.S. Estimates of Nuclear War Casualties During the Cold War Regularly Underestimated Deaths and Destruction | National Security Archive

An Accurate Praise Of Nuclear Power

 

Suicide by Monetary and Energy Policy
by Chris MacIntosh
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The war — and it is a war — between the Western-led economic, social and political system and that of the East becomes more visible weekly.

Doug Casey recently said it well:

"We’re now undergoing our own Great Cultural Revolution. It’s much more serious than what the Chinese attempted in the ’60s. Why? Because a whole complex of destructive ideas have now captured the apparatus of most governments, academia, media, entertainment, charities, and large corporations. The public has been both subtlety and overtly indoctrinated for generations. It’s not easy to reverse a trend this large."

It is not easy to reverse a trend, so instead we follow the trends and do our best to position for the best results we can. Today we’ll focus on the energy trend.

Let’s take a look at uranium.

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Next up, India.

India To Build Nuclear Power Plants In "Fleet Mode" From 2023

"New Delhi: With the first pour of concrete for a 700 MW atomic power plant in Karnataka’s Kaiga scheduled in 2023, India is set to put in motion construction activities for 10 ‘fleet mode’ nuclear reactors over the next three years."

It’s not just about economics or geography. At its base level, it’s about an entire economic, social, and political system.

Energy is everything. Always has been. You take any country that has managed to decrease poverty and raise living standards and at the core of this transition you’ll find energy. The reverse is also true.

Let us contrast this now with what we’re seeing in the world of the woke, where people with no experience in energy let alone business now make the decisions for both. These central planners have decided that "renewable energy," which doesn’t produce much energy and isn’t renewable, is the way to go and anyone that disagrees is a terrorist.

To contrast, for instance, nuclear power with that of solar, realize that nuclear power requires 18x fewer materials than solar. 18 times!

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Meanwhile…

Over in the US, Chevron CEO just came out informing us that due to the pointy shoes in DC’s "policy decisions" he can’t see that there will ever be another refinery built in the US.

China's New Aircraft Carrier is a Game Changer

Thursday, July 14, 2022

Syria-The Forgotten War

 

Oozing Wounds

SYRIA

Recently, some British tourists in Aleppo marveled at how rebel snipers a few years ago fired on Syrian government troops from the very same positions where archers nearly a millennia ago defended the ancient Citadel of Aleppo from Christian Crusaders.

European tourists are returning to Syria.

These visits have garnered criticism, of course. As the Washington Post explained, these tourists are arguably helping finance the brutal and dictatorial regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

One might add that these tourists are putting themselves in danger, too. While fighting in the Syrian Civil War has subsided, more violence might erupt at any moment, noted World Politics Review.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is now dominating the news cycle. But Syria remains perhaps the most tragic and bloody conflict in recent memory. More than 300,000 civilians died in the fighting that started in 2011, the United Nations recently found. That figure doesn’t include another 100,000 combatants or civilians who perished from starvation, sickness or other consequences of war. The war also displaced millions from their homes.

An anonymous testifier referred to as the “gravedigger” recently told the US Senate that Assad’s regime is still digging mass graves for rebels, CNN wrote. “Every week, twice a week, three trailer trucks arrived packed with 300 to 600 bodies of victims of torture, bombardment and slaughter,” said the gravedigger. “Twice a week, three to four pickup trucks with 30 to 40 bodies of civilians that had been executed in Sednaya prison also arrived for disposal in the most inhumane way.”

Iran and Turkey also continue to meddle in Syrian affairs while also vying with each other for influence in the country, Al-Monitor wrote. The Islamic State remains active there. Refugee camps have become hotbeds of recruitment for the militants, reported Haaretz. Syrian leaders have condemned Israel for alleged attacks against Hezbollah terrorists on their territory, Reuters added.

The Syrian Civil War also kicked off a migrant crisis in Europe and the Middle East that is still going on to this day. Officials in neighboring Lebanon are now trying to repatriate tens of thousands of Syrians who fled the fighting, for example, the Associated Press reported.

Global conditions are not necessarily making it easier for people to put the war behind them, either. Observers are hoping Russian diplomats in the UN Security Council, for example, don’t exercise their right to veto aid shipments to areas that are still under rebel control in Syria. Russia is allied with Assad. Amnesty International warned of a “humanitarian catastrophe” if the aid is not allowed through.

These developments illustrate how one of the worst disasters of the contemporary era won’t be over until it is 100 percent over. Unfortunately, that day is not in sight.