Who Will Win Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona? What the Betting Markets Say.
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With control of the Senate narrowing down to tight contests in three states, the betting markets are still predicting Democrats will retain control. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesThe betting market has put even greater odds on Democrats keeping control of the Senate amid unresolved midterm races in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia that will determine control of the chamber.
The online prediction market PredictIt said the betting line on Democrats retaining their majority was 91 cents, up from 77 cents on Wednesday, while the line for Republicans has dropped to 9 cents, from 25 cents on Wednesday.
Over the past month, the majority of bettors on the site had projected that Republicans would end up with control, but that trend flipped to Democrats on Election Day.
The line on Republicans ending up with 49 seats in the Senate is 69 cents, while the bet on Republicans staying at 50 seats is 20 cents.
But the bet that Congress will end up with a Republican-controlled House and a Democratic-controlled Senate is 79 cents, while the bet that Democrats will control both chambers is 15 cents.
On Polymarket the trend is similar. Bettors favor Democrats to control the Senate 92 cents to 8 cents for Republicans to control. That is a reversal from Tuesday, the site said. Polymarket also has Republicans favored to win the House, 83 cents, while the bet on Democrats to control is 17 cents.
Bettors are also pinning odds on Democrats to win the hotly contested Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, according to PredictIt. In Arizona, bets are 93 cents for Democrats to 10 cents for Republicans. In Georgia, it’s 74 cents for Democrats and 26 cents for Republicans.
And in Nevada, the bets are 87 cents for the Democratic candidate versus 15 cents for the Republican.
Contests in those three states will determine the breakdown of control in the Senate, which for the last two years has been held by Democrats with a 50-50 margin and Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote when necessary.
As of Thursday, with 99% of votes counted, neither Georgia incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, nor his Republican challenger, former pro football star Herschel Walker, had cleared the 50% threshold of votes cast to outright win the seat for their party.
The Associated Press confirmed a runoff is needed. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said Wednesday that neither candidate will notch the required 50% support under state law, because of the votes cast for Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver. The runoff election, the second time in two years that Georgia has been forced into a runoff for the Senate, will take place Dec. 6.
In Arizona, incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, is running against Republican venture capitalist Blake Masters. On Thursday, with 70% of the votes counted, Kelly had received 51.4% of votes cast while Masters had received 46.4%. But with about 600,000 ballots left to count, results remained too early to call, according to the AP.
In Nevada, Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto, the state’s former Attorney General, is running against Republican Adam Laxalt, her successor as the state’s Attorney General. With 83% of votes counted as of Thursday, Laxalt was ahead 49.4% to Cortez Masto’s 47.6%, AP data said.
Write to Janet H. Cho at janet.cho@dowjones.com
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