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Monday, July 24, 2023

Long Ago Small Mammals Hunted Dinosaurs

 

DISCOVERIES

The Small, the Mighty

Early mammals living in the age of the dinosaurs were smaller and couldn’t compete with the giant lizards.

But a new study showed that being small didn’t stop one cat-sized mammal from preying on a dinosaur three times its size, CBS News reported.

First discovered in northeastern China in 2012, scientists recently studied the fossilized remains of a mammal and a dinosaur from around 125 million years ago. The unique fossil shows the two creatures “locked in mortal combat,” with the mammal appearing as the aggressor.

Their findings identified the early furry animal as a Repenomamus robustus, which was one of the largest mammals living during the Cretaceous period. The dinosaur was a Psittacosaurus, an herbivore about the size of a large dog.

Paleontologists had previously suggested that R. robustus preyed on dinos after finding fossilized bones found in the mammal’s stomach.

Now, the study provides the first evidence showing actual predatory behavior by a mammal toward a dinosaur.

Co-author John Mallon told New Scientist that it also challenges the “traditional knowledge” that big dinosaurs devoured smaller mammals.

“But what’s so surprising about this fossil is that it suggests, occasionally at least, smaller mammals could take down a larger dinosaur,” he added.


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Wednesday, July 19, 2023

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500 Killed In Iranian Protests

 

The Rules Rebound

IRAN

Iran’s morality police resumed their operations across the country, authorities announced Sunday, less than a year after the death of a 22-year-old woman in their custody sparked mass demonstrations in the Islamic Republic, the Associated Press reported.

Officials said there will be a new campaign to force women to wear the Islamic headscarf – the hijab – in public, adding that the police unit would resume notifying and detaining women who violate the dress code.

The morality police retreated from public view following the death of Mahsa Amini in September, who was accused of violating the country’s strict hijab rules.

Her death prompted outrage in conservative Iran and resulted in months-long, women-led protests calling for the removal of the dress code. The demonstrations soon turned into calls for the overthrow of Iran’s clerical leaders.

But the protests were quelled earlier this year after Iranian authorities launched a bloody crackdown that saw more than 500 people killed and nearly 20,000 detained.

During the protests, reports emerged that the morality police had been disbanded – but officials denied that claim.

Iran’s government insisted throughout the crisis that the rules had not changed, adding that the hijab was a key pillar of the 1979 Islamic revolution. Officials also blamed the protests on foreign interference.


Belarus- A Mad Justice System

 

The Autocrat, the Lapdog

BELARUS

Belarussian artist and political dissident Ales Pushkin, 57, recently died in prison from an undisclosed cause. His crime: painting a picture.

Prosecutors said, incredibly, that his work glorified Nazism. As the Moscow Times reported, however, the timing of his arrest suggests his true transgression. Police nabbed Pushkin in 2021 as Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in office since 1994, was cracking down on anti-government protests.

In another example of the twisted, oppressive civic culture of the former Soviet republic, as described by Human Rights Watch, Belarusian authorities recently charged an attorney and a journalist with aiding extremism because they shared information about the attorney’s disbarment – even though the information is also publicly available on government websites.

The ridiculousness of these criminal cases reflects the absurd state of Belarus today. The dictatorial Lukashenko persecutes citizens who challenge his rule. Yet he is arguably the biggest lapdog in Europe as Belarus has become a “vassal state” of Russia, wrote the New York Times.

Lukashenko allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to install nuclear weapons in Belarus, putting a target on his country for American, British, and French ballistic missiles. Factories in Belarus, one of the poorest countries in Europe, produce uniforms for Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. Lukashenko needed Russian economic aid and security guarantees after he squelched anti-government unrest a few years ago. He downplays talk of a union between Belarus and Russia, but Putin now openly discusses it.

Belarus has not contributed troops to the war in Ukraine, but Lukashenko has provided support to Putin in every other way, including hosting Russian troops who could conceivably open a second front against Ukraine, added Bloomberg. These developments led the Telegraph to declare that Russia has been stealthily invading the country.

Furthermore, as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace explained, Lukashenko allegedly helped broker a peace deal between Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, who recently led an aborted coup against leaders in the Kremlin. Oddly, however, Prigozhin doesn’t appear to have ever moved to Belarus where, under the deal, he was supposed to receive asylum.

However, the BBC reported that Wagner folks are training troops in Belarus.

Belarus’s poor human rights record, its role in the Ukraine war and related issues are why Belarussian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya recently exhorted NATO leaders to pay more attention to her country. “For almost a year, there has been no new pressure against the regime,” Tsikhanouskaya told Radio Free Europe. “This is viewed as a weakness of democracy – Lukashenko and his cronies do crime after crime, and there is no punishment for that.”

The absurdity can’t last forever, though, analysts believe. The lapdog’s time will come.


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The Economist Magazine Discusses The Movie Oppenheimer

 


Shashank Joshi
Defence editor

The job of defence editor has many perks: flying in a Gripen fighter jet, prowling the Black Sea on an American destroyer and roaming the corridors of the Pentagon. The latest is getting to watch “Oppenheimer” on its release day. On Friday I’ll participate in a panel discussion on nuclear weapons after a special screening of Christopher Nolan’s keenly awaited biopic of the nuclear scientist who played a key role in the creation of the atomic bomb.

To prepare, I have been re-reading my worn copies of Richard Rhodes’s “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” and Kai Bird’s and Martin Sherwin’s biography “American Prometheus”. Oppenheimer, the director of the Los Alamos laboratory during the second world war, became a prominent campaigner for a ban on nuclear weapons and against the development of a hydrogen bomb. 

These themes have obvious contemporary echoes. Just as many nuclear scientists, such as Andrei Sakharov, a Soviet physicist, turned against the bomb, so too are pioneers of artificial intelligence expressing concerns over the safety of the technology they have developed. Both subjects—nukes and AI—raise the question of existential risk and how we measure it. My colleague Arjun Ramani has reported on a fascinating new study which asks why “superforecasters”—those with a track record of accurate predictions about the future—typically express less concern than subject-matter experts over the prospect of an apocalypse caused by nuclear weapons, AI or pathogens. 

Oppenheimer himself sought international controls on nuclear weapons, expressing sympathy with the idea of a global government. “The basic idea of security through international co-operative development has proven its extraordinary and profound vitality,” he wrote in an otherwise gloomy essay in Foreign Affairs in 1948. Leaders in AI have long found inspiration in nuclear analogies and the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Could, for instance, an AI agency monitor computer-processing power in the same way that the IAEA scrutinises fissile material? 

Yet the analogies are not especially encouraging. North Korea launched another nuclear-capable missile on July 12th. The war in Ukraine has not been great for the nuclear order. In recent weeks, prominent Russian political scientists like Sergey Karaganov have urged the use of nukes against America (though others have pushed back). Arms control between America and Russia, which was shaky pre-war, is breaking down more quickly. 

And, as Oliver Carroll explained in his excellent dispatch from southern Ukraine, there are also worries over the safety of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. It is occupied by Russia but is in the path of a Ukrainian counter-offensive, which is being slowed down by minefields. The plant is more secure in its construction than Chernobyl, but Ukraine is worried that Russia might manufacture a disaster. At the NATO summit last week, I heard Ben Wallace, Britain’s defence secretary, compare the threat to a “dirty bomb”.

Finally, no discussion of “Oppenheimer” would be complete without a mention of “Barbie”, whose release on the same day has unleashed a flurry of “Barbenheimer” memes. The two movies offer a stark choice, as we explore in our Culture section: realism or escapism? But I confess I never thought that the movie about the pink doll would prove more contentious than the one about nuclear weaponry. Vietnam has banned “Barbie” in the (mistaken) belief that a map shown on screen depicts the “nine-dash line”, which demarcates China’s claim to the South China Sea. Republican senators are now involved; this morning I saw even a law professor weigh in on the debate. I stand ready to chair any post-screening panels on this vital subject.

Thank you for reading. We are keen to hear your thoughts on “Barbenheimer” and any other feedback. You can reach us at: thewarroom@economist.com.

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Thursday, July 13, 2023

Cybersecurity And An Incredible Unknown Man

     Here in the U.S., there is an advertisement on television claiming that there are up to 25,000 unfilled jobs in cyber security. There are labor shortages all over the US economy. Are there 25,000 unfilled cybersecurity jobs? It is possible.

    I am going to introduce you to a man who you have not heard of before, Nathaniel Fick. For those of you curious, here is a good link describing his amazing life:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathaniel_Fick

    When you sell 1,000,000 books you can "rake in" $6,000,000 US. While serving as a U.S. Marine officer in Iraq, he wrote a book "One Bullet Away, The Making Of A Marine Officer." Very few of us are fortunate enough to become wealthy while in our 20s. He could have continued as an author and gone on to greater heights. He could have relaxed and enjoyed life. He could have become CEO of a giant corporation.

    He reinvented himself several times. He is now the U.S. State Department's worldwide ambassador in cyber security. He is in this position to show the US commitment to cyber security and to give China some serious competition all over the world. He is making a difference and someone to continue to watch. 

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Friday, July 7, 2023

Ukraine Spymaster Says That Russia Is On The Verge Of Civil War

      In the past, it took some clever research to find out what intelligence organizations were doing without violating criminal laws or administrative regulations.

      Now intelligence agencies are going right online and releasing their most recent findings. Denys Davydov, one of our readers, and a Ukraine expert without equal has been predicting that The Russian Federation was going to break apart and fall into civil war. Swedish Army intelligence has been saying the same. They have warned that different groups fighting in Russia would employ nuclear weapons during this coming civil war.

        Here is the intelligence report from Ukraine's intelligence agency:

 

publisher icon

Newsweek

Russia 'On the Edge of Civil War'—Ukraine Spymaster

By Brendan Cole,

1 day ago

The head of Ukraine's main intelligence directorate (GUR) has said that Russia is on the brink of civil war that could tear the country apart.

Major-General Kyrylo Budanov came to that conclusion after his spy agency examined a secret internal study by Russia's Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD). This focused on levels of public support for the mutiny by the Wagner Group of mercenaries, which was a direct challenge to Russian leader Vladimir Putin's authority. Last month, Yevgeny Prigozhin 's men seized military facilities in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and marched on Moscow.

Budanov told the British newspaper The Times that the MVD had tracked attitudes to the mutiny using new-generation spyware that monitors messaging apps, as well as social and regional media trends.

A person in a green jacket

Description automatically generated

Budanov said the MVD had assessed that, on the days of the rebellion, Wagner founder Prigozhin had popular support in 17 of Russia's 46 regions; Putin in 21; while, in the other regions, backing for both men was roughly equal.

"That's what we see now—that Russian society is torn into two pieces," Budanov told the British newspaper.

In his view, the data showed "exactly what our service has been talking about—that the Russian Federation is on the edge of (the) civil war. There needs to be a small internal 'affair', and the internal conflict will be intensified."

Ukrainian intelligence found that the MVD study had shown Putin could rely on the loyalty of Moscow but not in his home city of St. Petersburg. The Russian president had the least support in the southern republic of Dagestan, where Prigozhin enjoyed 97 percent support.

The prospect of civil war in Russia, or the country disintegrating in a post-Putin world, concerns world leaders but is advocated as necessary by some opposition figures seeking to overthrow the Kremlin.

Former chess player and founder of the Free Russia Forum Garry Kasparov told Newsweek in May that Putin's defeat in Ukraine would mean a collapse of his regime. He added that Russia would end up smaller, with territories such as Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, and Chechnya likely to leave the federation.

But he added that, while "Eastern Europe would be cheering if Russia collapses and becomes a multi-state, chaotic, wild east.... further west the situation changes."

"In America, I think this is the biggest concern," Kasparov said because this could mean "the rise of China and the expense of Russia."

Budanov would not confirm or deny Ukrainian responsibility for the sabotage of Russian targets, such as the Nord Stream pipelinedrones hitting the Kremlin, and the destruction of Crimea's Kerch Bridge, but did say "we use direct action."

In comments suggesting that Budanov directed unspecified assassination, he told The Times, "While these Inhumans are existing, we will be active."

"We know how to do them, and we were proud of using them, and we are not afraid of using them anywhere in this world against whoever," Budanov added.

Leaked U.S. intelligence documents showed that, in January this year, Prigozhin communicated with Ukrainian intelligence in January, offering Kyiv information on Russian positions in return for Ukrainian troops withdrawing from Bakhmut.

One document referred to meetings between GUR operatives and Prigozhin in an unspecified African nation. Without giving details, Budanov said "of course" the GUR met with Wagner "in many African countries," although he added that the word 'met' had "many meanings."

Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment via email.

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Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Russia Just Threatened Us With A Nuclear Strike on Washington, DC that could decapitate The US Government

       I am always on the lookout for obscure stories and things. A couple of days ago, the Russians released a threatening computer-generated animation. It showed a small nuclear weapon being detonated over the part of Washington, DC where major government centers are located. My antenna went up. Why a small nuclear explosion? Why not a big multi megaton warhead devastating the whole city?

      Several countries including the US, Russia, China, and a couple of others have very sophisticated spy satellites and radar systems. If a nuclear war head is launched, they detect it in nanoseconds. I suspect that this includes warheads launched from stealth platforms. Retaliation would be quick. All the nuclear armed players including North Korea understand this.

    However, if some nation or terrorist group smuggles a nuclear warhead into a city and detonates it, it is hard to prove who did it. Retaliation becomes problematic. Tom Clancy first raised this frightening possibility 30 years ago when he authored the novel "The Sum of All Their Fears." Palestinian terrorists smuggle a nuclear weapon into the US and set it off while the Super Bowl game is being played in Denver. Some 200,000 people die.

          President Bush II's expert on nuclear terrorism wrote a documentary novel titled "The Right Of Boom." An unnamed terrorist group smuggles a nuclear weapon into Washington. Some 80,000 people are killed. Six months later, the authorities cannot figure out who did it.

      One of our readers, Luah Fontana, is quite familiar with graphic arts and animation. It is a labor of love to create any animated program or presentation. Once all the work is done, in the bureaucratic Russian system, ten approvals would be necessary before the presentation was released to the public.

     The way I see this video threat is a warning that a nuclear terrorism event was possible if we in the West continue to support Ukraine in its war against Russia.

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Sunday, July 2, 2023

The Economist Magazine Cover For July 1, 2023

 

The Economist

Read in browser

JULY 1ST 2023

 
Insert a clear and simple description of the image


Zanny Minton Beddoes
Editor-in-chief

We had an important cover lined up for this week, on the hard choices posed by green growth. But when some mercenaries from the Wagner Group mutinied, our thoughts turned to Russia.

On June 24th, as a convoy of armed militia charged at high speed towards Moscow, it seemed as if almost anything could happen. However, by that evening the drama was over. Churchill once likened Russian leaders to “bulldogs fighting under a carpet”. This week they suddenly emerged, snarling and biting. But not for long. 

The job of our cover was to signal to readers where we thought Russia was heading and that we had something to say about a story that they had been following avidly.

The tank firing on itself suggests that we are going back to the battlefield. And indeed, this week’s issue does report on the morale and focus of Russia’s troops. After Yevgeny Prigozhin seized the logistics and command centre of Rostov-on-Don, seemingly without any resistance, Russian officers will be distractedly looking over their shoulders at how they will be affected by a power struggle back home.

The second sketch, with ZZs facing off against each other above a tense-looking Vladimir Putin, combines the idea of a mutiny with the implications for the Kremlin. Whether Mr Putin survives or not, he has been revealed as a blunderer. He is not so much a tsar as the top thug in the hollowed-out gangland that he has made of Mother Russia. And, in a world where power is everything, he looks like a weakened thug to boot.

This works better, because it focuses entirely on Mr Putin. It plays on his manly penchant for riding bare-chested across the Siberian taiga. It shows the hollowness of his propaganda and the decrepitude of the state that he has shaped. (It also has echoes of Richard III, the beleaguered English king who would have swapped his kingdom for a horse.)

Some of us liked this very much. Few weapons work better against a tyrant than mockery. The words evoke the courage of Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, when the Biden administration offered him safe passage out of Kyiv at the start of the war: “I need ammo, not a ride,” he is supposed to have said. Mr Putin, by contrast, seemed rattled in his address to the nation on June 24th. After he had finished speaking, he disappeared from sight.

But others preferred the tone and clarity of this. Mr Putin is cracking up. Even if his rule is not about to crumble, it will never be the same again. If you look closely in the final cover, you can spot a chunk above his eye that is the shape of Ukraine. And that’s not all. Mr Putin also has a chip on his shoulder.

 

Our original plan had been to put the climate on the cover. Faced with the enormous task of exhorting the world to act, people who care about climate change often find it hard to accept that they must deal with trade-offs—even when doing so would bring clear benefits. 

From the panels of Davos to the pages of newspapers, people argue that there is no trade-off between the economic development of low- and middle-income countries and reducing their greenhouse-gas emissions. Governments and development banks with limited budgets are loth to admit that not all their goals can be reconciled—that they must therefore choose. 

Yet choose they must, because growth is the best way to lift people out of poverty and growth creates emissions. What’s more, spending to cut emissions is most effective in middle-income countries, but spending on health care and schools is most effective in the least-developed countries. 

The giant balance suspended from the arms of a windmill says that when people allocate resources they are making a choice, whether they admit to it or not. The lad toting a plastic jerry can to the well is dwarfed by the windmills: electric power has come before water.

Here is that first idea worked up into a moody landscape. Many, like this newspaper, argue for mechanisms that minimise the conflict between development and climate action—a carbon price that bites would be our favourite; more generous payments from the rich-world that created the problem would be second-best. Unfortunately, politics means that neither is likely. The choice between climate and development is real, and it is excruciating. Which is worse, a poorer today or a hotter tomorrow?

We felt that this better captured that terrible dilemma. Limited resources make it essential to squeeze as much value as possible out of what is available. A reluctance to weigh costs and benefits stems from a well-meaning desire to avoid injustice. But that reluctance gets in the way and the consequences fall most heavily on those in greatest need.

 

Cover image

View large image (“The humbling of Vladimir Putin”)

View large image (“Hard truths about green growth”)

Backing stories

The humbling of Vladimir Putin (Leader)

The Wagner mutiny has left Putin dangerously exposed (Europe)

What next for Wagner’s African empire? (Middle East & Africa)

How misfiring environmentalism risks harming the world’s poor (Leader)
The surprising upside of climate migration (Briefing)