In the past, it took some clever research to find out what intelligence organizations were doing without violating criminal laws or administrative regulations.
Now intelligence agencies are going right online and releasing their
most recent findings. Denys Davydov, one of our readers, and a Ukraine expert
without equal has been predicting that The Russian Federation was going to
break apart and fall into civil war. Swedish Army intelligence has been saying
the same. They have warned that different groups fighting in Russia would
employ nuclear weapons during this coming civil war.
Here is the intelligence report from Ukraine's intelligence
agency:
Newsweek
Russia 'On the Edge of
Civil War'—Ukraine Spymaster
By Brendan
Cole,
1 day ago
The head of Ukraine's main intelligence directorate (GUR)
has said that Russia is on the brink of civil war that could tear the country
apart.
Major-General Kyrylo Budanov came to that conclusion after
his spy agency examined a secret internal study by Russia's Ministry of
Internal Affairs (MVD). This focused on levels of public support for the mutiny
by the Wagner Group of mercenaries, which was a direct
challenge to Russian leader Vladimir Putin's authority. Last month, Yevgeny Prigozhin 's men seized military
facilities in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and marched on Moscow.
Budanov told the British newspaper The Times that the MVD had tracked attitudes to the
mutiny using new-generation spyware that monitors messaging apps, as well as
social and regional media trends.
Budanov said the
MVD had assessed that, on the days of the rebellion, Wagner founder Prigozhin
had popular support in 17 of Russia's 46 regions; Putin in 21; while, in the
other regions, backing for both men was roughly equal.
"That's what we see now—that Russian society is torn
into two pieces," Budanov told the British newspaper.
In his view, the data showed "exactly what our
service has been talking about—that the Russian Federation is on the edge of
(the) civil war. There needs to be a small internal 'affair', and the internal
conflict will be intensified."
Ukrainian intelligence found that the MVD study had shown
Putin could rely on the loyalty of Moscow but not in his home city of St.
Petersburg. The Russian president had the least support in the southern
republic of Dagestan, where Prigozhin enjoyed 97 percent support.
The prospect of civil war in Russia, or the country
disintegrating in a post-Putin world, concerns world leaders but is advocated
as necessary by some opposition figures seeking to overthrow the Kremlin.
Former chess player and founder of the Free Russia Forum
Garry Kasparov told Newsweek in
May that Putin's defeat in Ukraine would mean a collapse of his
regime. He added that Russia would end up smaller, with territories such as
Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, and Chechnya likely to leave the federation.
But he added that, while "Eastern Europe would be
cheering if Russia collapses and becomes a multi-state, chaotic, wild east....
further west the situation changes."
"In America, I think this is the biggest concern,"
Kasparov said because this could mean "the rise of China and the expense
of Russia."
Budanov would not confirm or deny Ukrainian responsibility
for the sabotage of Russian targets, such as the Nord Stream pipeline, drones hitting the Kremlin, and the destruction of Crimea's Kerch Bridge, but did say
"we use direct action."
In comments suggesting that Budanov directed unspecified
assassination, he told The Times,
"While these Inhumans are existing, we will be active."
"We know how to do them, and we were proud of using
them, and we are not afraid of using them anywhere in this world against
whoever," Budanov added.
Leaked U.S. intelligence documents showed that, in
January this year, Prigozhin communicated with Ukrainian intelligence in
January, offering Kyiv information on Russian positions in return for Ukrainian
troops withdrawing from Bakhmut.
One document referred to meetings between GUR operatives
and Prigozhin in an unspecified African nation. Without giving details, Budanov
said "of course" the GUR met with Wagner "in many African
countries," although he added that the word 'met' had "many meanings."
Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment via email.
There is going to be a massive loss of
life and much human suffering.
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