An Invasion Of Kharg Island And Its Aftermath

From 1967 to 1973, there were violent protests all over the US about the Vietnam War. One protest brought one million people to Washington, DC. The war did not end until Congress got mad at President Nixon in 1973 due to Watergate. All funding for the Vietnam War ended. The US involvement in the war came to an end. What keeps the IRGC and all its proxies going is the revenue from oil sales that Iran collects through a brilliant Islamic money moving systems that outsmarts all sanctions. If the oil money were cut off, Iran would rapidly run out of money. They could not continue to prosecute the war and continue terrorist attacks. President Trump has decided to take over Kharg Island. This is the place where all the oil is being shipped to countries like China. President Trump launched a massive air attack against all military facilities on Kharg Island. A US Marine expeditionary force of 5,000 is on its way from Japan to Kharg Island. Their mission is to invade the island and hold it. As you can imagine, the IRGC would mount a ferocious resistance to the US Marine invasion. This landing would be equal to one of the World War II invasions of Pacific islands occupied by the Japanese. I will give no estimate as to what the possible casualties would be. I feel that US forces would prevail at a high cost. I always advise people to think in three dimensions. The big question on my mind is how Iran will react if Karg Island is taken. Here is what Grok thinks: This is a hypothetical escalation scenario. As of March 14, 2026, the US has not seized Kharg Island (correct spelling; Iran’s main oil export terminal, handling ~90-95% of its crude exports) with Marines or ground troops. US forces conducted airstrikes that “obliterated” military targets there (naval bases, missile bunkers, air defenses), but deliberately spared the oil infrastructure. President Trump has threatened to target the oil facilities only if Iran continues blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has responded with tanker attacks, mine-laying, and partial Hormuz disruption, but no full-scale ground invasion has occurred. Additional US Marines and amphibious assets are deploying to the region. A full US Marine seizure/occupation of Kharg Island (to permanently shut off Iran’s oil deliveries) would cross what Iranian officials call a “red line”—an existential economic threat. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which controls coastal defense, naval forces, and asymmetric operations, has already signaled its response through official statements. Here is what they have explicitly threatened and what military analysts expect based on IRGC doctrine: 1. Direct Threats from Iranian Officials (Already Issued) “Persian Gulf will run with the blood of invaders”: Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf warned that any ground aggression against Iranian islands (including Kharg) would cause Iran to “abandon all restraint.” He stated the blood of American soldiers would be “Trump’s personal responsibility.” Regional oil infrastructure retaliation: Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters (IRGC-linked) declared that any attack on or seizure of Iranian energy/oil facilities would trigger immediate strikes on “all oil, energy, and economic infrastructure” in the region belonging to companies with American shares or cooperating with the US. These would be “destroyed and turned into a pile of ashes.” US bases in Gulf states targeted: The IRGC has told the UAE that American “hideouts” (ports, docks, and soldier positions) are now “legitimate targets.” Similar warnings apply to other US-linked sites in the Gulf. 2. Likely IRGC Retaliation Tactics (Asymmetric Warfare Doctrine) The IRGC does not match US conventional power head-on. Instead, it relies on swarms, missiles, mines, and proxies—capabilities it has used since 2019 and in the current conflict: Full Strait of Hormuz closure and shipping attacks: Expect intensified mining (Iran has thousands of naval mines), speedboat swarms, unmanned surface vessels, coastal anti-ship missiles, and drones targeting tankers and US Navy vessels. Iran’s new supreme leader has already vowed to keep the Strait closed as leverage; seizure of Kharg would accelerate this. About 20% of global oil passes here—disruption would spike prices further. Missile and drone barrages on US/Gulf targets: Ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones aimed at US bases in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia—plus any Marine positions on or near Kharg. IRGC coastal units would likely fire on the island itself to deny US use. Strikes on Gulf oil facilities: Retaliatory attacks on Saudi Aramco sites, UAE refineries, or other US-linked energy infrastructure (echoing the 2019 Aramco drone strikes). Iran has warned it will “set the Middle East on fire” if its oil lifeline is cut. Proxy escalation: Hezbollah (Lebanon), Houthis (Yemen), and Iraqi/Shia militias would ramp up attacks on US interests, Israel, and shipping—already occurring but would intensify. Other tools: Cyber operations, possible attempts to recapture the island via small boat/helicopter raids (though low success odds against US air/naval superiority), and self-sabotage of remaining facilities to prevent US control. Key Caveats Capabilities degraded: Weeks of US/Israeli strikes have hit IRGC bases, missile sites, and command nodes, limiting sustained attacks. Retaliation would be painful but shorter-lived than in past scenarios. High global risk: Analysts (JP Morgan, think tanks) warn that a Kharg seizure would cause immediate oil export collapse for Iran, trigger severe retaliation, and send oil prices soaring with worldwide economic fallout. Uncertain execution: Iran’s responses so far have been calibrated to avoid total war. A Marine landing would be “high-risk, high-reward” for the US but could lead to prolonged asymmetric fighting. In short, the IRGC has pre-positioned its response: economic warfare via Hormuz + direct strikes on US/Gulf oil and bases, framed as existential defense. This aligns with decades of Iranian strategy against superior naval forces. The situation is fluid—any actual seizure would be a major turning point in the ongoing conflict. For real-time developments, official US Central Command or Iranian state media statements are the primary sources.