Today marked my 60th birthday. Aside from a little overweight I am in good health with many things to look forward to.
I had my birthday dinner yesterday. Today was reserved for reflection and soul searching. Making 60 is not that easy. I had three very good friends all through my high school years. None made it to 60.
Four of my friends were killed in Vietnam.
Now is a moment to give thanks. It is a sunny and beautiful day outside. I treasure it!!!
Life takes us in many strange directions and wonderful discoveries. It never turns out the way we thought it would.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Mei Guo
Elena and I just returned from almost three weeks in China and Hong Kong. Over the next few days you will be seeing pictures, travel logs, etc. Today I want to share the words above with you.
The Chinese people have two words for the United States. They are Meo Guo (my qah). The literal translation from Mandarin is "Beautiful Country." This says it all.
Elena and I had some hard times through our journey. Wherever we went we found the people to be gracious and friendly. We never heard any anti American comments or suffered any bad treatment.
In my humble opinion, China will always be a strategic competitor of the US. China will always adopt an independent foreign policy that will be in conflict with ours policies. But I never see us in a war with China. I do not see China as an enemy of ours.
選手，我剛從將近三個星期在中國和香港。在今後幾天你將看到照片，旅行日誌，等我今天要分享的話上述與您聯繫。
在中國人民兩個詞是美國。他們是郭苗（我qah ） 。該直譯的普通話是“美麗的國家。 ”這說這一切。
選手和我有一些困難的時候通過我們的旅程。只要我們去發現，我們的人民是熱情和友好。我們從來沒有聽說過任何反美國的意見或遭受任何待遇惡劣。
在我的愚見，中國將永遠是戰略競爭對手美國。中國將始終通過一個獨立的外交政策，將在衝突與我們的政策。但我從來沒有看到我們在與中國的戰爭。我
選手，我剛從將近三個星期在中國和香港。在今後幾天你將看到照片，旅行日誌，等我今天要分享的話上述與您聯繫。
在中國人民兩個詞是美國。他們是郭苗（我qah ） 。該直譯的普通話是“美麗的國家。 ”這說這一切。
選手和我有一些困難的時候通過我們的旅程。只要我們去發現，我們的人民是熱情和友好。我們從來沒有聽說過任何反美國的意見或遭受任何待遇惡劣。
在我的愚見，中國將永遠是戰略競爭對手美國。中國將始終通過一個獨立的外交政策，將在衝突與我們的政策。但我從來沒有看到我們在與中國的戰爭。我
The Chinese people have two words for the United States. They are Meo Guo (my qah). The literal translation from Mandarin is "Beautiful Country." This says it all.
Elena and I had some hard times through our journey. Wherever we went we found the people to be gracious and friendly. We never heard any anti American comments or suffered any bad treatment.
In my humble opinion, China will always be a strategic competitor of the US. China will always adopt an independent foreign policy that will be in conflict with ours policies. But I never see us in a war with China. I do not see China as an enemy of ours.
選手，我剛從將近三個星期在中國和香港。在今後幾天你將看到照片，旅行日誌，等我今天要分享的話上述與您聯繫。
在中國人民兩個詞是美國。他們是郭苗（我qah ） 。該直譯的普通話是“美麗的國家。 ”這說這一切。
選手和我有一些困難的時候通過我們的旅程。只要我們去發現，我們的人民是熱情和友好。我們從來沒有聽說過任何反美國的意見或遭受任何待遇惡劣。
在我的愚見，中國將永遠是戰略競爭對手美國。中國將始終通過一個獨立的外交政策，將在衝突與我們的政策。但我從來沒有看到我們在與中國的戰爭。我
選手，我剛從將近三個星期在中國和香港。在今後幾天你將看到照片，旅行日誌，等我今天要分享的話上述與您聯繫。
在中國人民兩個詞是美國。他們是郭苗（我qah ） 。該直譯的普通話是“美麗的國家。 ”這說這一切。
選手和我有一些困難的時候通過我們的旅程。只要我們去發現，我們的人民是熱情和友好。我們從來沒有聽說過任何反美國的意見或遭受任何待遇惡劣。
在我的愚見，中國將永遠是戰略競爭對手美國。中國將始終通過一個獨立的外交政策，將在衝突與我們的政策。但我從來沒有看到我們在與中國的戰爭。我
Mei Guo
Elena and I just returned from almost three weeks in China and Hong Kong. Over the next few days you will be seeing pictures, travel logs, etc. Today I want to share the words above with you.
The Chinese people have two words for the United States. They are Meo Guo (my qah). The literal translation from Mandarin is "Beautiful Country." This says it all.
Elena and I had some hard times through our journey. Wherever we went we found the people to be gracious and friendly. We never heard any anti American comments or suffered any bad treatment.
In my humble opinion, China will always be a strategic competitor of the US. China will always adopt an independent foreign policy that will be in conflict with ours policies. But I never see us in a war with China. I do not see China as an enemy of the US.
The Chinese people have two words for the United States. They are Meo Guo (my qah). The literal translation from Mandarin is "Beautiful Country." This says it all.
Elena and I had some hard times through our journey. Wherever we went we found the people to be gracious and friendly. We never heard any anti American comments or suffered any bad treatment.
In my humble opinion, China will always be a strategic competitor of the US. China will always adopt an independent foreign policy that will be in conflict with ours policies. But I never see us in a war with China. I do not see China as an enemy of the US.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
The Financial Crisis, The Bail Out And Your Survival
I tell any college student and professional person I know that they
should take a course on "Money and Banking" as an important part of
their training regardless of what their path of education is. This
course gets into the technical mechanisms of how banks interact with
each other and the central banks of their respective countries. It is
dry and sometimes boring technical material. It also shatters all the
concepts we have of how an economy works.
To make a long story short, no bank has the money to cover all of its deposits. If all the depositors showed up on the same day demanding their money, the whole system would collapse. Banks continue in business by leading the depositors to believe that their money is always safe. The word CONFIDENCE is the key to everything. Once confidence fails, you have an economic collapse.
The Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is a great student of the Great Depression of the 1930's. He even wrote his PhD thesis on the subject. He understands intimately the forces that can cause another Great Depression.
People often ask me to explain how the Great Depression happened. I answer in one sentence. "It was the perfect storm." There were three elements that came together to create this economic disaster. The first was the erection of trade barriers between nations. High import duties were charged by almost every country on goods coming from other nations. International trade came to a standstill. The second element of the perfect storm was the collapse of the stock market bubble in the late 1920's. The third element was the reaction of regulators who raised interest rates and put all sorts of restrictions on the stock market. These conservative economic policies included allowing banks to fail and "letting the free market work things out."
All of the actions above caused everyone from the top to the bottom in societies to lose confidence. The result was a decade of economic suffering and a recovery that took decades more.
This current bailout is an effort to restore and maintain confidence. In this respect, it will work for the short term. The $700 billion dollar price tag is low. At the end of the day the costs will go to over $1.5 trillion dollars or more. Banks and some Wall Street firms will survive. Those that do will be frightened on new lending. Only the very best borrowers will get credit. The program will not stimulate lending and get the backlog of houses on the market sold. It will not stop foreclosures. Another expensive program will be demanded to achieve this goal.
As the printing press turns out more and more money, inflation will rise. Foreign holders of US debt will get more and more anxious. They will quietly begin to liquidate more and more of their treasury bonds. This will make it harder for the US government to raise money to finance the huge deficits that are coming. The dollar will no longer be the reserve currency of the world. The US will go from being a credit society to being a cash society where savings is well respected.
If we do nothing, we will have many more bank failures. Unemployment could accelerate to 20% or more. Social unrest will increase to dangerous proportions. It will be a perfect political background for the rise of another Hitler or Stalin.
Even if this bailout stops a collapse, we are going to see the middle class disappear and all societies become like most of Latin America where people are either rich or very lower-middle class and poor.
What caused this current crisis? It is easy to point to President Bush. He is the commander-in-chief and he is ultimately responsible. However the roots of this crisis began in 1999 when President Clinton signed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. This legislation swept away the Depression-era law known as the Glass-Steagall Act. It deregulated banks. At the time, Senator Byron Dorgan of North Dakota predicted that it would lead to a disaster in 10 years. He was right.
This act created super banks such as JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup. These banks started to engage in risky lending but have survived this melt down Other banks that copied them have failed.
Alan Greenspan and the Bush administration did little to regulate this new free market economy. The results have been disastrous. The infection of subprime mortgages has spread all over the world. The only country I know of that was smart enough to avoid this temptation is South Africa.
So how do you and your family survive in this crisis? I am a great admirer of the Mormon church. They have some wonderful survival principles that they learned the hard way when they were exiled to the Utah desert in the 1800's. They urge every family to store 6 months of food and necessities such as toilet paper.They also encourage families to keep part of their savings in gold and silver. I would not keep such valuable at home as this always invites a robbery. South Africa has an excellent brokerage firm named Imara SP Reid.(www.imaraspreid.co.za) This would be a good place to buy and store your gold. You should also look at the website www.kitco.com.
I would add to this advice about your home. Either pay if off in full or leverage it as much as you can. In the inflation that will follow you will be able to use your house as an inflation hedge or pay off the loans with cheaper and cheaper dollars.
You will also need to keep liquidity in a solid foreign currency. This will not be the US dollar. I would recommend the Canadian dollar or the Norweigan Kroner. Please look at banks in Ireland and Austria.
At the end of the day you will see the US move to be more like Europe where state socialism is a part of the life.
To make a long story short, no bank has the money to cover all of its deposits. If all the depositors showed up on the same day demanding their money, the whole system would collapse. Banks continue in business by leading the depositors to believe that their money is always safe. The word CONFIDENCE is the key to everything. Once confidence fails, you have an economic collapse.
The Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is a great student of the Great Depression of the 1930's. He even wrote his PhD thesis on the subject. He understands intimately the forces that can cause another Great Depression.
People often ask me to explain how the Great Depression happened. I answer in one sentence. "It was the perfect storm." There were three elements that came together to create this economic disaster. The first was the erection of trade barriers between nations. High import duties were charged by almost every country on goods coming from other nations. International trade came to a standstill. The second element of the perfect storm was the collapse of the stock market bubble in the late 1920's. The third element was the reaction of regulators who raised interest rates and put all sorts of restrictions on the stock market. These conservative economic policies included allowing banks to fail and "letting the free market work things out."
All of the actions above caused everyone from the top to the bottom in societies to lose confidence. The result was a decade of economic suffering and a recovery that took decades more.
This current bailout is an effort to restore and maintain confidence. In this respect, it will work for the short term. The $700 billion dollar price tag is low. At the end of the day the costs will go to over $1.5 trillion dollars or more. Banks and some Wall Street firms will survive. Those that do will be frightened on new lending. Only the very best borrowers will get credit. The program will not stimulate lending and get the backlog of houses on the market sold. It will not stop foreclosures. Another expensive program will be demanded to achieve this goal.
As the printing press turns out more and more money, inflation will rise. Foreign holders of US debt will get more and more anxious. They will quietly begin to liquidate more and more of their treasury bonds. This will make it harder for the US government to raise money to finance the huge deficits that are coming. The dollar will no longer be the reserve currency of the world. The US will go from being a credit society to being a cash society where savings is well respected.
If we do nothing, we will have many more bank failures. Unemployment could accelerate to 20% or more. Social unrest will increase to dangerous proportions. It will be a perfect political background for the rise of another Hitler or Stalin.
Even if this bailout stops a collapse, we are going to see the middle class disappear and all societies become like most of Latin America where people are either rich or very lower-middle class and poor.
What caused this current crisis? It is easy to point to President Bush. He is the commander-in-chief and he is ultimately responsible. However the roots of this crisis began in 1999 when President Clinton signed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. This legislation swept away the Depression-era law known as the Glass-Steagall Act. It deregulated banks. At the time, Senator Byron Dorgan of North Dakota predicted that it would lead to a disaster in 10 years. He was right.
This act created super banks such as JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup. These banks started to engage in risky lending but have survived this melt down Other banks that copied them have failed.
Alan Greenspan and the Bush administration did little to regulate this new free market economy. The results have been disastrous. The infection of subprime mortgages has spread all over the world. The only country I know of that was smart enough to avoid this temptation is South Africa.
So how do you and your family survive in this crisis? I am a great admirer of the Mormon church. They have some wonderful survival principles that they learned the hard way when they were exiled to the Utah desert in the 1800's. They urge every family to store 6 months of food and necessities such as toilet paper.They also encourage families to keep part of their savings in gold and silver. I would not keep such valuable at home as this always invites a robbery. South Africa has an excellent brokerage firm named Imara SP Reid.(www.imaraspreid.co.za) This would be a good place to buy and store your gold. You should also look at the website www.kitco.com.
I would add to this advice about your home. Either pay if off in full or leverage it as much as you can. In the inflation that will follow you will be able to use your house as an inflation hedge or pay off the loans with cheaper and cheaper dollars.
You will also need to keep liquidity in a solid foreign currency. This will not be the US dollar. I would recommend the Canadian dollar or the Norweigan Kroner. Please look at banks in Ireland and Austria.
At the end of the day you will see the US move to be more like Europe where state socialism is a part of the life.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
President Bush's Financial House Of Cards Is Collapsing!!
My readers, last week the US Treasury Department took over Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac. They assumed liabilities of over $5 trillion US
dollars. This is over one half of the current US national debt. We now
see Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual Bank teetering close to
failure. Another government bailout is looming. We also have the
spectre of trillions of dollars in credit fault swaps that could go bad.
Despite all of this bad news, the US dollar has shot up against other currencies. Gold and oil prices are dropping. It seems as if everyone around the world has buried their heads in the sand and thinking it is all business as usual.
It reminds me of Singapore in early 1941. As two Japanese armies moved down the Malay Peninsula to take the city,the elites of Singapore were seen having parties at such venues as the world-famous Raffles Hotel. No one believed that their island city paradise would fall into Japanese hands. No body took notice of the fact that all of the RAF personnel were being evacuated quietly to Australia. None gave much thought to the sinking of British capital ships by Japanese aircraft. When the Japanese armies stormed into the city, the party was over a huge hangover lasting over four years followed. Many of the people attending these parties did not live to see their liberation by the Allies.
What happens here when the party is over? We will have a Singapore-style hangover lasting 4-5 years. The first casualty will be the crash of the US dollar. The authorities will either let it fall or raise interest rates astronomically to try to attract investors. In either scenario, the American people will suffer a drop in living standards that they,most likely, will never recover from. Unemployment will rise to over 12%. Foreigners will come in and buy American firms and properties at bargain basement prices. The poor will suffer immensely.
How did such circumstances come to be. A weak and stupid man assumed the presidency in 2001. He got a majority in the senate and in congress. This gave him carte blanche to do what ever he wanted. With all of this power and authority, he could have created a United States that would continue to lead the world throughout the 21st century. Instead, he raised the national debt from $4 trillion to over $9 trillion dollars. He embarked on a senseless war inIraq that cost us over $1 trillion dollars and the loss of our prestige and respect all over the world. He let his friends in the congress and the senate give out all sorts of money to their rich friends. He did nothing to stop the loss of $1 trillion dollars per year due to the importation of foreign oil. He was "asleep at the wheel" when $10 trillion dollars in questionable real estate loans on homes and commercial property were made.
To add to the madness, the US voters are getting ready to elect John McCain so "the party" can go on for four more years.
How can you protect yourself against all of these problems. You need to own gold. You need to have your cash savings in a very stable currency like the Norweigan Kroner. Store six months of food in the house. If your house is paid off, leave it that way. If you owe a lot of money on your house, just sit and relax. Inflation will eat up a lot of the debt and the government will bail out your mortgage.
Despite all of this bad news, the US dollar has shot up against other currencies. Gold and oil prices are dropping. It seems as if everyone around the world has buried their heads in the sand and thinking it is all business as usual.
It reminds me of Singapore in early 1941. As two Japanese armies moved down the Malay Peninsula to take the city,the elites of Singapore were seen having parties at such venues as the world-famous Raffles Hotel. No one believed that their island city paradise would fall into Japanese hands. No body took notice of the fact that all of the RAF personnel were being evacuated quietly to Australia. None gave much thought to the sinking of British capital ships by Japanese aircraft. When the Japanese armies stormed into the city, the party was over a huge hangover lasting over four years followed. Many of the people attending these parties did not live to see their liberation by the Allies.
What happens here when the party is over? We will have a Singapore-style hangover lasting 4-5 years. The first casualty will be the crash of the US dollar. The authorities will either let it fall or raise interest rates astronomically to try to attract investors. In either scenario, the American people will suffer a drop in living standards that they,most likely, will never recover from. Unemployment will rise to over 12%. Foreigners will come in and buy American firms and properties at bargain basement prices. The poor will suffer immensely.
How did such circumstances come to be. A weak and stupid man assumed the presidency in 2001. He got a majority in the senate and in congress. This gave him carte blanche to do what ever he wanted. With all of this power and authority, he could have created a United States that would continue to lead the world throughout the 21st century. Instead, he raised the national debt from $4 trillion to over $9 trillion dollars. He embarked on a senseless war inIraq that cost us over $1 trillion dollars and the loss of our prestige and respect all over the world. He let his friends in the congress and the senate give out all sorts of money to their rich friends. He did nothing to stop the loss of $1 trillion dollars per year due to the importation of foreign oil. He was "asleep at the wheel" when $10 trillion dollars in questionable real estate loans on homes and commercial property were made.
To add to the madness, the US voters are getting ready to elect John McCain so "the party" can go on for four more years.
How can you protect yourself against all of these problems. You need to own gold. You need to have your cash savings in a very stable currency like the Norweigan Kroner. Store six months of food in the house. If your house is paid off, leave it that way. If you owe a lot of money on your house, just sit and relax. Inflation will eat up a lot of the debt and the government will bail out your mortgage.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Some Hope For Zimbabwe Economy
Billions of rands could pour into Harare
Although Zanu-PF and the Mutambara faction of the MDC reiterated their willingness to sign, Weekend Argus understands Tsvangirai outlined a number of concerns that continue to pose problems for his participation.
"There are still a number of things we asked for that aren't there," he said.
However, he would not say when he would be in a position to join his rivals at the table.
Ping told the party leaders he was meeting with them in his capacity as AU commissioner and as the AU representative to the newly-appointed reference group which Thabo Mbeki constituted on Friday.
The group is also made up of special representatives from the SADC and the UN and is intended to interact with Mbeki's facilitation at a strategic level on an ongoing basis as talks proceed.
Should the talks produce a negotiated settlement, Harare stands to attract billions of rand in the near future from Zimbabwe's main donors.
Weekend Argus understands Britain has committed R15 billion, America has pledged R11,4-billion, the United Nations Development Plan a further R6bn and the European Union R3-billion, with more in the offering from a number of other sources, all under the guise of a rescue plan.
From those four sources alone, Harare stands to attract at least R35-billion in the near future, an enormous amount of money for a country that has been miraculously staving off economic collapse for a number of years.
It is a sum that will be hard to ignore in the future talks.
The bulk of the money carries stringent conditions, however, and the ultimatum that it will not be released until Mugabe steps down.
US officials have repeatedly said they are only willing to lend a hand in a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe.
When the EU chief for Development and Humanitarian Aid, Louis Michel, announced his package some weeks back, he stipulated a similar condition, saying that while the money would be available, it would only be committed vis-a-vis "a post-Mugabe assistance plan in union with our African partners".
However, it remains to be seen whether the world's superpowers would consider a power-sharing authority of some sort, which seems increasingly likely, rather than veto the prospect of stability.
What is also unclear are the intentions of the incoming US administration and whether the future US president would be willing to assist Zimbabwe, even with Mugabe in some ceremonial role.
|
July 20 2008 at 11:32AM |
|
By Fiona Forde
African Union commissioner Jean Ping held a round of secret talks with
President Robert Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara in
Harare on Saturday in a bid to secure agreement on power-sharing talks
due to get under way in the coming days.
In his separate meeting with each of the party leaders, Ping appealed
to them to sign a memorandum of understanding that will guide a
two-week round of intensive talks to negotiate a political solution to
the crisis.
The signing ceremony would take place in Harare and pave the way for
the talks to move immediately to a secret location in South Africa.
Although Zanu-PF and the Mutambara faction of the MDC reiterated their willingness to sign, Weekend Argus understands Tsvangirai outlined a number of concerns that continue to pose problems for his participation.
"There are still a number of things we asked for that aren't there," he said.
However, he would not say when he would be in a position to join his rivals at the table.
Ping told the party leaders he was meeting with them in his capacity as AU commissioner and as the AU representative to the newly-appointed reference group which Thabo Mbeki constituted on Friday.
The group is also made up of special representatives from the SADC and the UN and is intended to interact with Mbeki's facilitation at a strategic level on an ongoing basis as talks proceed.
Should the talks produce a negotiated settlement, Harare stands to attract billions of rand in the near future from Zimbabwe's main donors.
Weekend Argus understands Britain has committed R15 billion, America has pledged R11,4-billion, the United Nations Development Plan a further R6bn and the European Union R3-billion, with more in the offering from a number of other sources, all under the guise of a rescue plan.
From those four sources alone, Harare stands to attract at least R35-billion in the near future, an enormous amount of money for a country that has been miraculously staving off economic collapse for a number of years.
It is a sum that will be hard to ignore in the future talks.
The bulk of the money carries stringent conditions, however, and the ultimatum that it will not be released until Mugabe steps down.
US officials have repeatedly said they are only willing to lend a hand in a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe.
When the EU chief for Development and Humanitarian Aid, Louis Michel, announced his package some weeks back, he stipulated a similar condition, saying that while the money would be available, it would only be committed vis-a-vis "a post-Mugabe assistance plan in union with our African partners".
However, it remains to be seen whether the world's superpowers would consider a power-sharing authority of some sort, which seems increasingly likely, rather than veto the prospect of stability.
What is also unclear are the intentions of the incoming US administration and whether the future US president would be willing to assist Zimbabwe, even with Mugabe in some ceremonial role.
- This article was originally published on page 2 of Cape Argus on July 20, 2008
Friday, July 18, 2008
A Great Leader Reaches An Incredible Milestone
Nelson Mandela marks 90th birthday with call for South Africa to help the poor
Last Updated: 5:47PM BST 18/07/2008
Nelson Mandela has marked his 90th birthday by appealing for his fellow South
Africans to do more for the poor who have seen few material benefits from
his victory against apartheid.
"Poverty has gripped our people," said Mr Mandela at his rural home in Qunu, surrounded by gifts from well-wishers. "If you are poor, you are not likely to live long.
"There are many people in South Africa who are rich and who can share those riches with those not so fortunate who have not been able to conquer poverty."
Mr Mandela was speaking deep in the impoverished Eastern Cape province, with the family he was separated from during the 27 years he spent in prison after being convicted of terrorism.
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He promised "a better life for all" when he was elected president in the country's first democratic elections in 1994, but even 14 years later three in 10 South African households do not have running water, and one in five do not have electricity.
By contrast a relatively small group of black South Africans, many of them with political connections, have become extremely wealthy – the so-called "black diamonds".
Amid the formal and informal events marking his birthday, the anniversary has prompted some observers to contrast the hopes of 1994 with the fractionalisation of the governing African National Congress and the mixed record of Mr Mandela's successor Thabo Mbeki as president.
In an editorial, the Mail and Guardian newspaper said: "The sweet celebration of a life of leadership, service and generosity is mixed with the sour taste of a legacy being polluted in front of the old man's tired eyes."
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