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Wednesday, May 11, 2022

The Real Story Of How Nuclear Weapons Are Launched

        There is this urban legend that Joe Biden or Vladimir Putin awaken in a bad mood. Biden orders a nuclear strike on Iran. Putin orders a tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine.

   Fortunately for all of us, the reality is something vastly different. CBS News went in-depth and showed how the US system for launching nuclear weapons works. There are three large leather bags with the launch codes in them (nicknamed "The Football.") President Biden always has one of these leather bags nearby. Vice-President Kamala Harris has one of these leather bags nearby. A third undisclosed cabinet member is known as "the designated survivor." He or she has one of the black leather bags.

     If the bag is opened, it is really a fancy computer system showing nuclear warheads available, target options, and the estimated number of people who will die if this option is followed. Decisions are made by one of these three people. Nuclear weapons are not automatically fired.

       The firing instructions go to a very elite committee of 4-star generals and admirals. I watched interviews with two of these men on the CBS News program 60 Minutes. They were most capable and independent-minded. Their first job is to make sure that the order issued by one of the three people is a lawful order. If an unlawful order to launch nuclear weapons is carried out, the people on this committee face court-martial and a life sentence in prison for many counts of murder.

      Once the order is determined to be lawful, these senior officers carry out the weapons firing procedures.

      Thanks to a very professional group of scholars and experts using a website that I read daily (Quora Digest), I have a good idea of how the Russian system works for authorizing the firing of nuclear weapons. Putin and his inner circle have no black leather bags like their US counterparts have.

      An elite group of senior military officers has all the launch codes, warhead dispositions, etc. They also have a binder with very strict instructions on when nuclear weapons can be used. One part of the Russian warfighting doctrine is that nuclear weapons can be used if conventional forces cannot accomplish a military objective. There is a big additional caveat in the system. It must be established that the survival of the Russian state is at risk before such drastic weapons can be used. If Putin gives a launch order, this group of senior officers must decide if it is a lawful order. If the order is determined to be lawful, they launch the weapons.

    I know a lot of you are thinking that "Putin could game the system" and force these senior officers to carry out an unlawful launch order. The people writing in Quora Digest did not believe that this was possible.

 

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