Is The U.S. Headed For A Second Civil War?

      Something jumped out and hit me hard as I was doing my research this morning. Edward Luce is a distinguished journalist who works for the FT of London. I have been in a meeting with him in person. I have watched numerous podcasts where he is the host. He published an article with the following title: "Is America Heading For Civil War?"

     The author is a British subject, He has "no political ax to grind." He is not a conspiracy theorist or a man with extreme views. He works for a publication that is centuries old and has an impeccable reputation worldwide.

   He cites the book: "The Next Civil War: Dispatches From America's Future" by Stephen Marche. He points out that Civil War II would not be a repeat of the original civil war from 1861 to 1965. Certain states would not secede from the union. The US military machine would be able to defeat any insurgency despite the presence of 400,000,000 firearms: many of them military assault rifles. It would asymmetrical warfare like what was seen in Afghanistan, Iraq, and in Britain during the time of the Irish Republican Army.

     This is a recipe for huge political instability and social disruption. It might lead to a breakup of this country. Or none of it may happen. If you are in the investment business, Ray Dalio is one of the great leaders. He is highly respected. He rates the probability of a second US civil war at 30%.