China Vs Taiwan-"Winning Through Intimidation!"

      Let us talk about what is happening right now as Chinese forces encircle and harass Taiwan. In the 1970s an author named Robert Ringer wrote a book titled "Winning Through Intimidation." For those of you curious, here is the link:

https://www.amazon.com/Winning-Through-Intimidation-Robert-Ringer/dp/0449207862

       He made the argument that you could become rich by using intimidation. In my experience, I have seen intimidation work from time to time. When one goes down that road, one often encounters someone "willing to call their bluff."

         The Chinese do not want to invade Taiwan. They believe that they can create a scenario where the Taiwan government, the US, Japan, Vietnam, and Australia will look at the high price of money, people killed and injured, disruptions in the world economy, and the crash in financial markets. They will decide that the price is too high and give Taiwan to China. I cannot predict what the US and political leaders of other countries will decide to do if an invasion of Taiwan is imminent.

     Let us look at this from the perspective of a group of senior military officers carrying out a war game about such an invasion. Taiwan is not Ukraine. It is equipped with the latest and most modern weapons. Its armed forces are well trained and highly motivated. Taiwan has powerful allies in the U.S., Japan, Australia, and Vietnam.

     The invasion of an island is one of the most challenging military operations imaginable. The invader must control the sea lanes around the island and have air superiority to make an invasion succeed. Germany called off the invasion of England because they could not obtain air superiority and control of the sea lanes around England. The US Navy conducted many island invasions in World War II. None were easy. All resulted in large losses of life.

         It is a given that China could assemble a large invasion fleet with many soldiers on board ready to "hit the beach in Taiwan. They would face the US Navy, Japanese Navy, Royal Australian Navy, and the Vietnamese navy. Aircraft from the US, Japan, Australia, and Vietnam would attack overhead. US, Japanese, and Australian submarines would attack from underwater.

    China is heavily dependent on foreign oil. Oil tankers coming to China would be interdicted. The Chinese economy depends on export to survive. These would be disrupted. China's economy would grind to a halt. World financial markets would collapse.

     If such a war actually happens, it will be short in duration, incredibly violent, with huge losses of military personnel on all sides and civilians. The monetary cost will be staggering.

       In my opinion, when the smoke settled after such an attack, China would not be in control of Taiwan. Russia already unsuccessfully used the threat of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. It did not work. If China threatens nuclear weapons, it also will not work.