Computer Chip Factories Prevent China From Invading Taiwan

      I have some further information on a possible China invasion of Taiwan. It is some perverse good news. If we look at a confrontation between China and Taiwan, it is truly David vs. Goliath. Taiwan is a small island with 24 million people. It has no nuclear weapons. Confronting it is China with over one billion people, the largest industrial base in the world, and the second largest GDP in the world. The Chinese military machine is awesome. They have an arsenal of 300+ nuclear weapons.

    We have all seen Dracula movies at some point in our lives. We know the awesome power of the count. Yet, if someone holds a wooden cross close to him, he is stopped from attacking.

     I have found "the wooden cross" that stops the colossus of China from invading Taiwan. Please allow me to introduce a friend of mine of many years, His name is Ken Flagler. He got an architecture degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Most graduates like him would devote their careers to designing beautiful homes, office parks, office buildings, etc. Ken took a radically different career path. He has devoted his career to designing nuclear reactors, nuclear fusion facilities, and "Fabs" manufacturing semiconductors and very advanced computer chips. One of Ken's clients is a major Taiwan chip manufacturer. Ken was hired to design and help build several "Fabs" for this Taiwan company in mainland China. (One of Ken's other great achievements was the design and construction of a $22 billion US chip "Fab" in South Korea.)

     Here is a quick summary of the Taiwan chip industry as follows:

Taiwan's semiconductor sector accounted for US$115 billion, which is ca. 20% of the global semiconductor industry. In selected sectors like foundry operations, Taiwanese companies account for 50% of the world market, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) being the biggest player in the foundry market.

    As impressive as these statistics are, they do not tell the whole story. Taiwan manufactures the most advanced computer chips on earth. China has devoted massive resources and its best skills at stealing intellectual property to catch up with advanced Taiwan chip makers. Reports I have received indicate that these efforts failed. China is still up to 6 years behind Taiwan in the design and manufacture of truly advanced computer chips.

       A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would, most likely, lead to the destruction of these very advanced computer chip "Fabs." Even if they captured these advanced factories intact, the highly skilled personnel would have fled or would refuse to work even under the penalty of prison.

       All of a sudden all the advanced chips used in electric cars, advanced mobile phones, computers, and fighter aircraft like the F-35 would be gone. It would have a devastating effect on China's economy and the economies of many other advanced countries. The whole world would be thrown into a deep recession. It would take at least 5 years to replace this production capacity somewhere else in the world.

     My readers the Chinese leadership is not stupid. They are aware of the consequences of the destruction of these vital Taiwan chip "Fabs." China is going to harass and intimidate Taiwan for a long time to come. It will not be pleasant. They are bluffing when it comes to an actual invasion. We should be polite and firm but not "call their bluff." I refer to some Chinese wisdom that I learned as a little child as follows:

     "Always allow an opponent a chance to save face."