By Bradley K. Martin
Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China and the U.S.-South Korean alliance have begun planning for military intervention in case the Kim Jong Il regime in North Korea collapses, according to two newly published studies -- one of which foresees a race to occupy and control the impoverished communist country.
``If the international community did not react in a timely manner as internal order in North Korea deteriorated rapidly, China would seek to take the initiative in restoring stability,'' says a Jan. 3 report by Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Institute of Peace.
The report says its unnamed Chinese sources see North Korea as stable for the moment, ``but they worry that the potential for instability may grow.''
Meanwhile, U.S. and South Korean military planners were scheduled to complete by the end of 2007 a contingency plan for controlling the spread of weapons of mass destruction and dealing with refugees fleeing North Korea in the event of a collapse, according to an article in the January/February issue of the U.S. Army journal Military Review.
To beat China to the punch, joint planners should go farther and prepare for a South Korean occupation of the North, argues the author, Army Capt. Jonathan Stafford.
``A failure to prepare for this monumental task risks losing the Korean dream of reunification to Chinese hegemony,'' he writes. ``If South Korea cannot occupy the DPRK immediately and effectively, China will.''
DPRK stands for Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.
Multilateral Approach
The authors of the CSIS-USIP report said Chinese specialists in North Korean affairs they interviewed hoped for a multilateral approach to North Korea rather than a contest for hegemony.
``In the event of instability in North Korea, China's priority will be to prevent refugees from flooding across the border,'' says the report, entitled ``Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor.'' If Chinese troops need to go into North Korea, ``China's strong preference is to receive formal authorization and coordinate closely with the United Nations,'' it says.
China's People's Liberation Army has contingency plans for at least three possible missions in the country, the report says. One is humanitarian: refugee assistance, or helping with the aftermath of a natural disaster. The second is policing the country to maintain order. The third is to secure North Korea's nuclear weapons and fissile material, or clean up nuclear contamination in the event of a strike -- the report does not specify by whom -- on North Korean nuclear facilities near the border.
China's Reaction
A Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman on Jan. 8 denied knowledge of the plan, according to Agence France Press. ``I have never heard of nor seen the so-called plan mentioned in the report,'' AFP cited the spokeswoman saying.
Regarding nuclear-related contingencies, ``some Chinese experts say explicitly that they favor holding a discussion on stability in North Korea in official channels with the United States,'' the report says.
China is the organizer and host of ongoing talks with the U.S., North and South Korea, Japan and Russia on denuclearizing the North.
Stafford in his article argues that ``the Chinese have been busy laying the political, diplomatic and historical foundations for an occupation and perhaps even an annexation of North Korea.''
`Puppet State'
``China wants to develop its landlocked, economically backward northeast by gaining access to nearby North Korean seaports,'' Stafford writes. ``China could achieve all this by establishing a puppet state or by fully incorporating North Korea into China proper.''
Urging that Americans ``take the threat of regime collapse in North Korea as seriously as China does,'' Stafford says the U.S. ``should begin creating the diplomatic conditions now to justify and support a South Korean-led occupation of North Korea.''
The U.S. should stay in the background and leave it to South Koreans, who share a language and culture with North Korea. Keeping American soldiers from setting foot in North Korea ``wouldalso strengthen the U.S. diplomatic case for preventing Chinese forces from moving into the country.''
Not all experts see an advantage for the first country to move into North Korea if it collapses, especially after the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
``The reconstruction will be a mess, and a lot of people will get hurt even under the best possible scenarios, so everybody who will be in charge of post-Kim Korea is likely to be discredited,'' Andrei Lankov, North Korea specialist at Seoul's Kookmin University, wrote Jan. 8 on the blog OneFreeKorea in response to the Stafford article.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bradley K. Martin in Tokyo at bmartin18@bloomberg.net
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