American Civil War II And Its Impact On Financial Markets

       We are going to talk about American Civil War II and how it would affect financial markets and each of you personally. Before I get started, please allow me to repeat the prediction of Ray Dalio. He owns the number one hedge fund in the US. He is bright. He has an incredible research team behind him. He rates the probability of such an event happening at 30%. He says it is just as likely as a shooting war between the US and China.

       On Sunday one of our readers in Toronto got so curious about the possibility of American Civil War II that he went out to a bookstore and bought the book that I have discussed previously. After reading a few pages of the book, he posed the question to me:

       "What happens to financial markets if a second civil war erupts?"

        I pointed out to David that the most dangerous moment comes at the end of the 2024 presidential election here in the US. If it is a very close election and no one including the US Supreme Court can determine who is the winner, we might see a military intervention to solve the problem. Elena gets upset when she hears this. She says that this has never happened in the history of the US. People in various think tanks and academic organizations see this as a real possibility. One would assume that conservative senior military officers would support the Republican candidate for president. People predicting this say that it could be either candidate.

    A military intervention would lead to the Constitution and civil liberties being suspended. Military force would be used to keep the chosen candidate in power. Any armed resistance would be brutally crushed.

     Does this mean that you will have tanks on your street fighting pitched battles and jet fighters overhead dropping bombs?

      Elena and I have 14 years of experience with military coups and military dictatorships in South America. You will not have tanks and pitched battles in your neighborhood. The violence will take place in highly populated urban areas.

     How would this political instability and uncertainty affect financial markets? It would be devastating. Learn to think like a South American with experience in such events. They make sure that their house or apartment is paid for. In that way, they have a roof over their heads regardless of what happens. Stock markets will crash. Banks will fail. We could see a situation where the US defaults on its massive national debt. You will need cash and gold in your residence. You will need a good supply of food and water. You will need to have the capability to generate your own electricity. This includes a solar power system and a heavy-duty generator powered by natural gas.

    Let us hope that we will all awaken, and this will be a bad dream that never actually happened.