I would give it 6 months before Russia is not able to continue in any meaningful way. Not because all their troops are dead, but because they are unable to maintain a high operational tempo due to dwindling supplies. Russia has a LOT of artillery rounds, but they won’t last forever.
Russia depends on its own supplies provided by an economy the equivalent of Spain, while Ukraine depends on supplies from the largest economies on Earth (EU and USA).
From a material standpoint, Russia has no hope of lasting longer than Ukraine.
Russia’s strength is its artillery.
Russia is playing it safe, staying under the cover of a massive artillery umbrella. To the uneducated, it may appear that it is paying dividends for Russia. Each day, they are gaining a little ground. They simply pummel an area into oblivion—whether civilians are living there or not—Ukrainian forces disengage to avoid casualties, and Russian troops move in. You can see it on the map every day. But is Russia really winning?
Rope-a-Dope
You may not think the sport of boxing has anything to do with modern warfare, but stay with me here. In the 1974 fight, Muhammed Ali fought George Foreman. Ali was a clever, quick fighter, and an excellent tactician, similar to Ukraine. George Foreman was a mountainous bruiser who used his bulk and powerful punches to win his fights, much like the Russian army.
Though big and strong, Ali knew it wasn’t smart to go toe-to-toe with Foreman; instead he developed the technique of “rope-a-dope.” Ali would lean lean against the ropes while Foreman threw heavy-handed haymaker punches wildly. To the uneducated, Ali appeared to be losing, but when the moment was right, Ali sprung off the ropes in the 8th round, connecting with a perfectly aimed punch, and he defeated Foreman. Below is a gif demonstrating rope-a-dope at its finest. It’s not from the ’74 fight, but demonstrates how to exhaust a bruising fighter.
Rope-a-dope. None of the heavy punches (like Russian artillery) connects with the enemy it is aimed at.
In this war, Ukraine is being a clever hunter, allowing his simple-minded prey to exhaust itself. Russian fights like an unintelligent animal, applying maximum force in all situations, whether needed or not. Ukraine deftly trades land for time, counter-attacking when the situation favors it, retreating to avoid casualties when it does not. Ukraine is rather like a bullfighter, deftly evading the far more powerful bull, waiting until the time is right to plunge his sword into the beast.
A graceful, artful bullfighter (Ukraine), battling a simple-minded brute (Russia).
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