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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

AP Exclusive: Arrest of Iranian scientist, like covert struggle with Iran, shrouded in secrecy | StarTribune.com

AP Exclusive: Arrest of Iranian scientist, like covert struggle with Iran, shrouded in secrecy | StarTribune.com:

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Azerbaijan: A Jumping Off Point For An Israeli Attack On Iranian Nuclear Facilities?


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STRATFOR
Geopolitical Diary

Azerbaijan’s Arms Deal with Israel
February 29, 2012

More analysis you can find on Stratfor.com:

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Azerbaijan's ambassador to Iran was called into the Iranian Foreign Ministry on Tuesday to explain reports of an Azerbaijani arms deal with Israel. According to Iran's Fars News Agency, Tehran warned Azerbaijan against allowing its "territories to be used by Israel for terrorist attacks." The arms sale was reportedly valued at about $1.6 billion and included anti-air systems and unmanned aerial vehicles. The news came as Israeli President Shimon Peres held talks on regional security issues with Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze. That meeting is what makes the first story so interesting.

After the Russo-Georgian war in 2008, the United States realized it was not in a position to defend Georgia. Washington's preoccupation with the Islamic world prompted Russia to use Georgia to impart a lesson to the rest of the former Soviet states -- in effect announcing Russia's return as a regional power. The United States could have armed the Georgians after the war, but this would have heightened tensions with the Russians, something Washington at the time could not afford. Moreover, the Russians might have resumed war with Georgia before the weapons could be integrated.

At the time, the United States and Russia appeared to have reached an understanding: Russia would refrain from further conflict with Georgia if the Americans restricted weapons sales. The United States was not alone in this. Every major weapons seller to Georgia, particularly Israel, broke sales out of fear that the Russians might sell advanced systems to Syria and Iran.

The Azerbaijani issue is more complex. Domestic political pressure in the United States, particularly from Armenian-Americans supporting Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, made sending an ambassador to Azerbaijan difficult. Substantial sales of weapons to the country were impossible. This added to the strategic problem the United States faced in the region. As with Georgia, Washington did not want to see Russian or, in this case, Iranian incursions into Azerbaijan, but it did not have available force to deter an incursion at the time. In an odd way, the security of Azerbaijan, like that of Georgia, was better served by avoiding large-scale weapons sales that might have increased Russia's or Iran's insecurity. The Israelis, while maintaining close ties with Azerbaijan, also did not make large-scale weapons sales.

That is what makes the Israeli arms sale to Azerbaijan and the related high-level meeting so interesting. It is difficult to believe that the United States and Israel are not coordinating their activities in the Caucasus. The sale to Azerbaijan affects Iran, and Israel is not likely to undercut Washington's position vis-a-vis Tehran. Nor is Israel likely to go against U.S. policy in Moscow's regard, and the Georgian talks and the arms sale to Azerbaijan also affect Russia. It can be assumed that the United States has approved the initiatives.

This would mark a change in U.S. regional policy since 2008. There would seem to be two triggers for this. The first is the Russian veto on Syria, which clearly infuriated the United States. The second involves the prior threat to Israel -- that maintaining close military relations with Georgia would result in weapons sales to Syria. The Syrian government is currently in no position to acquire and deploy advanced anti-aircraft systems from Russia, and what weapons it needs it gets from Iran. With that threat gone, the Israelis -- but not the Americans -- have a freer hand.

Recent attempts to assassinate the Israeli ambassador to Azerbaijan and the identification of Iranian terrorist cells operating in Azerbaijan are also factors. The presence of Israeli, American and Iranian intelligence in Azerbaijan is nothing new, but Tehran's increasingly aggressive posture toward Baku (motivated by increased Iranian fears of an attack facilitated by Azerbaijan) creates a sense of insecurity there, and neither the United States nor Israel wants to see Azerbaijan turn to Russia for weapons. The Israeli sale not only provides immediate weapons to Baku, but it also implies that further supplies will be provided as needed. That delivers a message to Iran and reassures Azerbaijan. Whatever private collaboration might exist, public arms sales represent a political commitment on the part of Israel, which Baku will interpret as an implied U.S. obligation.

Nothing has been sold to Georgia yet, but the Russians have been put on notice regarding the potential price of their veto on the Syria issue, and the fact that chaos in Syria frees Israel to deepen its relationship with Georgia. In the meantime, Georgians have allowed Russians to enter Georgia without visas, signaling that they are not seeking to increase tensions with Russia again.

This maneuvering is important because it shows Israel and the United States re-evaluating their policy toward Russia in the Caucasus. At the same time, it warns Iran that its northern frontier with Azerbaijan could turn from a place Tehran uses to place pressure on Baku, to a place from which the United States and Israel could pressure Iran. With talks of strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, this capability is not trivial.

None of this is spoken, of course. But as we consider the calculations that have led to these moves, this is likely how they are viewed in Moscow and Tehran. For now, the Russians have lost their options in Syria, while the Iranians face an increasingly hostile Azerbaijan potentially backed by Israel -- and eventually, the United States. Washington has not yet joined the game, but the option is now there. 

Monday, February 27, 2012

Dinner With A Wonderful Friend of 38 Years

Elena and I had a wonderful dinner with Pablo Gallyas last night at an Italian restaurant (Giovanni's) in Berkeley, California. Pablo finally got to meet my wife Elena. We talked about trekking adventures including climbing high mountains. We talked about our experiences of living through military dictatorships in Latin America. We talked about our children. It was a wonderful evening and great to be with a good friend whom I had not seen in 4 years.

The South Florida house that became a fraud machine - Miami-Dade - MiamiHerald.com

The South Florida house that became a fraud machine - Miami-Dade - MiamiHerald.com:

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2012 Oscar nominees - theenvelope.latimes.com

2012 Oscar nominees - theenvelope.latimes.com:

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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Jack's Beautiful Woman For Wednesday 22 February

NASA Recharting its Path to Mars | SpaceNews.com

NASA Recharting its Path to Mars | SpaceNews.com:

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The Awful Tragedy At Once Train Station In Buenos Aires


nside the front two carriages of the train.
At least 40 people were killed and 550 were injured following a train crash at Once station, officials confirmed. A 7-year-old boy was amongst the first reported fatalities as he remained trapped inside one of the front carriages for almost three hours.

The head of the SAME emergency services Alberto Crescenti said that the amount of people injured had increased to "at least 550," while rescue workers confirmed around 30 passangers were still trapped inside and underneath the train.

After the crash at least 70 people were pulled out of the wreckage and taken to nearby Ramos Mejía Hospital and Durand Hospital to be treated.

Sources at the scene said that rescue activities were non-stop and that there were many injured passengers sat in the station hall waiting to be moved to hospital. 

Transport Secretary Juan Pablo Schiavi was present at the scene and earlier described the accident as "terrible." 

The train crashed when it was moving into the station, as it failed to stop at the lights and collided into the platform. Schiavi told reporters "it was moving at a speed of 26 kilometres per hour when entering the station, however when it crashed, it had slowed down and was travelling at 20 kilometres per hour."

He went on to say “the impact of the crash caused the second carriage to be pushed 6 metres into the first carriage of the train."

Once station, located in the heart Plaza Miserere is one of Buenos Aires' central train stations. The state-run TBA Sarmiento train line runs from Moreno to Once station, and was filled with passengers on their daily commute. 
T

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

The drift towards war with Iran - FT.com

The drift towards war with Iran - FT.com:

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Fiscal crisis: Could the American government default? | The Economist

Fiscal crisis: Could the American government default? | The Economist:

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719 F2d 1253 United States v. Kimble | OpenJurist

719 F2d 1253 United States v. Kimble | OpenJurist:

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The mortgage settlement may cost taxpayers | Marketplace from American Public Media

The mortgage settlement may cost taxpayers | Marketplace from American Public Media:

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The Scariest Housing Market Chart Ever

The Scariest Housing Market Chart Ever:

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Without US Help Israel Would Have To Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons To Attack Iranian Nuclear Facilities Decisively


When the 1973 Yom Kippur War was at its worst moment, Israel asked for additional US aid. President Nixon and Henry Kissinger were wary of helpiung for fear of upsetting Arab states. Israeli president Golda Mier armed her nuclear weapons and threatened to detonate them. If this had happened, the Soviets might have retaliated with nuclear weapons starting World War III. Nixon and KIssinger gave Israel the aid they needed.

Israel's prime minister will meet with President Obama in les than two weeks. I'm sure that he will threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons against Iran.

Target Iran - Air Strikes

In May 2003, Ephraim Asculai, a former Israeli Atomic Energy Comission official, in an article written for the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, wrote that "nuclear verification is clearly failing in Iran, when (the IAEA) let Iran proceed with its ambitious program. In any case, it would be unable to deter or stop its development of nuclear weapons. The verification mechanisms will fail by not being able to prove anything, since intentions, particularly when based on legal actions, are unverifiable."
The annual intelligence assessment presented to Israel's Knesset on 21 July 2004 noted that Iran's nuclear program is the biggest threat facing Israel, "Maariv" and "Yediot Aharonot" reported on 22 July 2004. Some Likud and Labor Knesset members subsequently called for a preemptive strike against the Iranian nuclear facility. Former Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh (Labor) said, "If the international community's helplessness in the face of the Iranian threat persists, Israel will have to weigh its steps -- and soon." Ehud Yatom (Likud) said, "The Iranian nuclear facilities must be destroyed, just as we did the Iraqi reactor. We must strive to attain the ability to damage and destroy any nuclear capability that might be directed against Israel." On 08 September 2004 Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said the international community has not done enough to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and warns that Israel will take its own measures to defend itself. He also said Iranian officials have made it clear they seek the destruction of the Jewish state. Israeli Air Force pilots have been practicing attacks on a scale model of the Bushehr reactor in the Negev Desert.
In October 2004 Ephraim Kam, the deputy head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies said that "It would be a complicated operation. In order to undermine or disrupt the Iranian nuclear program, you would have to strike at least three or four sites ... Otherwise the damage would be too limited, and it would not postpone the program by more than a year or two, and this could in the end be worse than doing nothing." Shai Feldman, also at the Jaffee Center, said "There is a logic to operating against Iran even if the location of every facility is not known, because just taking out the facilities that are known, especially if they include the enrichment and heavy water plants, would in itself create a serious degradation of the Iranian potential."
The Israeli Air Force received the first two of 25 F-15I [officially I is for Israel, not Iran, though some take a different view] Ra'am (Thunder) aircraft, the Israeli version of the F-15E Strike Eagle, in January 1998, and as of early 2004 had an inventory of 25 aircraft. According to the Israeli Air Force, this aircraft has a range of 4,450 km, which equates to a combat radius of 2,225 km. Deliveries of the F-16I Sufa (Storm) began in early 2004. This heavily modified aircraft, with massive conformal fuel tanks, has a reported combat radius of 2,100 km. Probable strike targets such as Bushehr and Esfahan lie about 1,500 km from Israel.
The 2,060-km strike on the Palestine Liberation Organization's headquarters in Tunis in October 1985, in retaliation for the murder of three Israelis on a yacht in Cyprus, was the IAF's furthest attack from home to date. The F-16s which bombed the Iraqi reactor in 1981 were not refueled and returned home on their last drops of fuel.
On 21 September 2004 Israel acknowledged that it was buying 500 BLU-109 bunker-buster bombs, which could be used to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. The bombs, which can penetrate more than 7 feet of reinforced concrete, are part of a $319 million package of air-launched bombs being sold to Israel under America's military aid program.
The German magazine Der Spiegel reported in October 2004 that Israel had completed plans for a pre-emptive strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Der Spiegel reported that a special unit of the Mossad had received order in July 2004 to prepare a detailed plan, which had been delivered to the Israeli Air Force. The source for the report, an IAF pilot, said the plan to take out Iran's nuclear sites was "complex, yet manageable." Israel's plan assumes that Iran has six nuclear sites, all of which would be attacked simultaneously.
It would be difficult for Israel to strike at Iran without American knowledge, since the mission would have to be flown through American [formerly Iraqi] air space. Even if the United States did not actively participate with operations inside Iranian air space, the US would be a passive participant by virtue of allowing Israeli aircraft unhindered passage. In the eyes of the world, it would generally appear to be a joint US-Israeli enterprise, any denials notwithstanding. Indeed, it is quite probable that Iran would not be able to readily determine the ultimate origins of the strike, given Iran's relatively modest air defense capabilities. Thus, even if the strike were entirely of American origin, Israel would be implicated. When asked in August 2004 about Israeli threats to attack Iran, Bush's national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, declined to say whether the United States would support such action by Israel.
In an 08 September 2004 interview in the "Jerusalem Post" newspaper, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon says the international community has not done enough to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and warns that Israel will take its own measures to defend itself. Sharon said there was no doubt that Iran is trying to obtain nuclear weapons and is doing so by "deception and subterfuge." He said international efforts to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions had not been sufficient. Sharon calls for increased pressure and supervision of Iran's nuclear program and said the issue should be brought before the UN Security Council for sanctions to be levied against Tehran. Sharon said Israel would take steps to defend itself against the Iranian threat. He did not elaborate.
Even though the uranium facility at Natanz has been buried underground, it remains vulnerable. As Lieutenant Colonel Eric M. Sepp noted, "The "cut-and-cover" facilities are constructed by digging a hole, inserting a facility, and then covering it up with dirt and rocks. These cut-and-cover facilities can be just below the surface of the ground or may reach a depth of perhaps 100 feet, and represent the vast majority of underground facilities today. In the case of contemporary cut-and-cover facilities, there is no question that conventional munitions can defeat them."
The air strikes option does have the same problems that one would face in North Korea, namely that Iran has a rather significant air defense capability which could complicate use plans. However, unlike North Korea, Iran is not in a position to hold US soldiers or allied civilian populations (Iraq) hostage. A full-scale Iranian military retaliation, though possible, is highly unlikely, especially with the significant US force presence in Iraq. It is possible that Iran could use its ballistic missiles to strike US or allied targets throughout the Persian Gulf region, and in fact Iranian officials have explicitly promised to do just that.

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Monday, February 20, 2012

nona-people: PAUL LIR ALEXANDER

nona-people: PAUL LIR ALEXANDER:

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Meth in Mexico: A Turning Point in the Drug War? | STRATFOR

Meth in Mexico: A Turning Point in the Drug War? | STRATFOR:

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50 Years Ago Today John Glenn Orbited The Earth



Fifty years ago today I was a 13 year old boy dreading a doctor's appointment with Dr. J. Winston Morrison. I took my mind off my dread watching the left off of an Atlas rocket carrying a 40-year old US Marine Corps major named John Glenn into earth orbit. At that time the Atlas rocket was not dependable. It had blown up on the launch pad many times. John Glenn was lucky that day and the rocket worked to perfection. Soon JOhn Glenn was in orbit around the earth. Each orbit of the earth took ninety minutes. John was supposed to stay in orbit for 7 orbits or 630 minutes. His flight was cut short at 3 orbits with no explanation. (We later found out that an indicator warned that his heat shield was loose and he might not be able to reenter earth's atmosphere without burning up. Luck was with John Glenn and he made it back to earth safely. He became an instant American hero. Some weeks later I remember listening to the description of his ticket tape parade in New York City on a radio in Sid Ersler's Hudson car. I was doing circular deliveries.

In February of 1966 i was honored to have the opprtunity ti interview John Glenn in his home in Houston. He was charming and personable. I aslo met his wife Annie. John went on to be a US Senator. He orbited the earth again in the Space Shuttle.

John is now 90 years "young" and still going strong. This is his special day!

Meth in Mexico: A Turning Point in the Drug War? | STRATFOR

Meth in Mexico: A Turning Point in the Drug War? | STRATFOR:

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Jack's Beautiful Woman For Monday 20 February

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Travel Agencies Still Offer Better Prices Than On Line Booking Services


February 14, 2012, 2:04 PM

Is the Best Travel Search Engine Around the Corner?

The offices of Joy World Cruise Tour agency in New York.Chester Higgins Jr./The New York TimesThe offices of Joy World Cruise Tour agency in New York.
I remember the days when it wasn’t faceless online search engines that helped me find the best deals on flights, but real live people called travel agents. Ivica got me a great bargain to Croatia. Alla helped me maneuver domestic flights within Russia, with an unbeatable price. And Fanny planned my dream trip to China with expert ease.
Actually, it’s pretty easy to remember those days: they were just last month. Those trips were actually only tests — tests of the real-life niche travel agencies in New York City and elsewhere that serve specific immigrant communities, pitched against the popular Web sites — like ExpediaKayak,Vayama — that have become go-tos for travelers.
The result: Nearly every time, travel agents bested the Internet big boys on both price (the objective part of the test) and service (what you might call the essay question). In other words, the agents suggested alternate routes, gave advice on visas and just generally acted, well, more human than their computer counterparts. (All research was all done in mid-January for trips in March.)
In some cases, the agents trounced the competition. The best bargain I found was for an imagined two-week jaunt to Croatia, visiting Zagreb, the inland capital, but with the bulk of my time spent along the Dalmatian coast and in the coastal city of Dubrovnik. I tested online search engines for flights to both cities, checking various dates and paying attention principally to price, but keeping an eye on the number and length of layovers.
I first tried Travelocity, which gave me an astonishingly high $2,923 round-trip fare to Dubrovnik. Orbitz came up with $1,313, and allowed me to sort the results by travel time, a nice touch. Kayak’s price, $1,008, was better; Vayama — which frustratingly doesn’t add up total trip time — came up with $862; and Expedia, after much shuffling of dates, was the online winner with a quote of $798.
Then I called Pan Adriatic Travel, a Croatian-owned agency in Astoria, Queens, recommended by Sandra Ribicic Ballabio, a Croatian New Yorker who gained the unwieldy Italian part of her name only recently when she married my friend Frank.
“John” answered — he was really Ivica Glavinic, the owner, using an English-friendly name — and asked what I was planning to do in Croatia. I told him, noting that I could fly into and out of either Dubrovnik or Zagreb.
“You don’t want to go to Zagreb and come back from Zagreb!” he practically shouted — common knowledge to him, apparently. “You want to go to Zagreb, go down the coast, come back from Dubrovnik. I’ll send you an e-mail in five minutes.”
His fare: $480, taxes included. That’s 40 percent off the cheapest online flight I had found. The catch: I had only an hour to commit. But if I had really been planning the trip, I certainly would have.
When I called Mr. Glavinic later and revealed that I was a journalist, he said those deals don’t always pop up — I had been lucky. “But I can always get you a better deal” than online sites, he added. I don’t think his boast was an idle one. In years of booking trips to Brazil through BACC Travel, a Brazilian agency based in New York, which I retested this time around while helping a friend book a trip from Boston, I can’t remember a time they couldn’t at least slightly beat the online price.
Other tests of Chinese, Russian, Brazilian, Ecuadorean and Indian agencies resulted in victories or virtual ties with my invented travel scenarios. Only in one case — a straight New York to Manila round-trip request — did the Web score a definitive victory over an agent at a Filipino storefront in Woodside, Queens, and then only by about $50.
But as my itineraries got more complicated, the search engines had even more trouble keeping pace with the agencies. At Delgado Travel, an Ecuadorean-owned agency with branches around the city (as well as across the United States, Canada, Latin America and Europe), I asked about a trip that included Quito and Cuzco, Peru, the jumping-off point for visits to Machu Picchu. An agent quoted me $1,213, beating (albeit just barely) the $1,294 route I found using ITA Software by Google, a site that finds the cheapest flights but does not book them. Vayama was second at $1,386.
When I went to Kayak and reverse-engineered the specific dates and flights I got at Delgado, I could indeed match their price, meaning that with more hours spent online, I perhaps could have done just as well. But most of the time even reverse engineering couldn’t match the agencies’ prices. That’s because many of the agencies are consolidators, meaning they negotiate discount rates with airlines on specific routes in exchange for a promise of volume sales.
It is generally true that the online engines will find the best domestic coach fares — although even that can get complicated. Southwest flights don’t appear on most search engines. Travelers with very flexible dates or routes they fly frequently should sign up for alerts from sites likeairfarewatchdog.com to stay on top of special offers.
I took things up a notch with even more complicated itineraries in Russia and China. My Russian trip included stops in Moscow, Kazan and Irkutsk. My Chinese route was New York-Beijing-Chengdu-Hangzhou-New York. (Both are plausible, if ambitious, two-week trips.)
For the Russian plan, the search engine results varied widely, from a jaw-dropping $5,199 on Kayak to $1,373 on Vayama. I headed to Brighton Beach, the Russian enclave in Brooklyn, and learned how easy it was to find these niche agencies. Stepping out of the subway, I punched “travel agency” into the Google Maps app on my phone. Among the results was Bella’s Travel. Before sending me to an agent, the receptionist asked “Do you have a visa?” I hadn’t thought of that, and it turns out they are tricky to get — but Bella’s could help, for $70 in addition to the visa fee.
She then sent me over to a very pleasant agent named Alla, who quickly started tapping on her computer. When I stressed my dates were flexible, she conjured up a $1,301 fare. Total time spent: 15 minutes, much less than I spent online. (Though I had traveled to Brighton Beach, I could have just called — true of all the agencies I visited.)
And you don’t have to live in New York — just seek out the agents online. A clue you’ve come to the right place: the Web site looks as if it were designed a decade ago, does not have online searching, and directs you to call a phone number associated with a real address. It’s possible you may run into language issues, but every spot I tried had solid English speakers.
After testing several Chinese agencies in Flushing, Queens, I tried just that with an online search for Chinese travel specialists, and came uponUSChinaTrip.com. I e-mailed them with my dates and cities, and they got back to me within a few hours. Their price: $1,369. That beat out, though barely, a deal found by Fanny at Joy World Travel in Flushing. But it soundly bested the online search engines again, which would have charged me $356 more for the dubious privilege of dealing with a machine instead of a human.
THE AGENCIES
BACC Travel, 16 West 46th Street, New York; (212) 730-1010;bacctravel.com.
Bella’s Travel, 253 Brighton Beach Avenue, Brighton Beach, Brooklyn; (718) 332-1643; bellastravel.com.
Delgado Travel, various locations; (718) 426-0500 (in New York), (800) 335-4236 (elsewhere); www.delgadotravelusa.com.
Joy World Travel Inc., 135-20 39th Avenue, Suite HL 210, Flushing, Queens; (718) 460-5100; no Web site.
Pan Adriatic Travel, 34-08 Broadway, Astoria, Queens; (718) 777-0555;panadriatic.com.
USChinaTrip.com, (909) 895-8858.