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Saturday, April 29, 2023

Russia Is Doing A Booming Business In Nuclear Reactors!!

 Jack,

Thank you.  I listened to some of the General’s interview and will continue.

Yesterday’s Journal has a good one, headline = Kremlin Boosts Nuclear-Power Sway.  The article centers around a brand new nuke plant in Turkey named Akkuyu, which Rosatom built, owns, and will operate, including supplying all uranium fuel.  A few nuggets:

"Rosatom…has expanded its global reach in recent years and is the world’s leader in constructing and operating nuclear projects abroad, working on 34 power units in 11 countries from China to Egypt to Hungary.  In recent decades, Rosatom has exported more reactors than any other major provider.”

“Despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, business boomed last year: Rosatom has said that its foreign sales topped $10 billion last year, a roughly 15% increase from the year before.  Rosatom’s total foreign order book is about $140 billion, according to the company.  Rosatom has remained mostly untouched by significant Western sanctions amid opposition from some European Union member states like Hungary that rely on it.”

“Russia provides crucial fuel supplies, including about 46% of global uranium-enrichment capacity, according to the World Nuclear Association.  The U.S. is one of Russia’s biggest customers of enriched uranium.”

“Rosatom owes its rapid global expansion to its ability to cover the whole nuclear-power supply chain.  It mines…uranium, provides funding, designs reactors, builds plants, and disposes of nuclear waste.  The company is the world’s only such ‘one-stop nuclear shop’ providing an all-inclusive package, according to a February paper published in the journal Nature Energy.”

Upshot?  Russia still has a big profit center, and the U.S. participates in it “bigly”.

Best,
V.

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Russia's Economy and the Ukraine War

 

The limits on Russia’s war

Matthieu Favas
Finance correspondent


 
To get a sense of how Russia is coping with sanctions, look to the country’s borders. In the far east, more tankers than ever are docking at oil terminals as the crude Europe now boycotts is redirected to Asia. In the north, the harbour of Sabetta, on the sea of Kara, is busy preparing cargoes of liquefied natural gas to replace exports of the piped sort, which no longer go to the bloc. Kazakhstan, to the south, is sending hundreds of thousands of washing machines across the borders (up from zero in 2021). On the Western side Armenia is exporting 125,000% more phones to its neighbour than it did before the war.

Figuring out what goes on inside Russia’s borders is more difficult. These days the country releases fewer statistics on the state of its economy. A range of other indicators, from the financial accounts of banks to the precise allocation of the state’s budget, are classified. And Russia’s economy is at the centre of information wars, because the degree of its resilience to Western assaults and to the pressures of war could dictate how long it can keep boots on the ground. 

To see through the cacophony of inflated claims, my colleague, Callum Williams, and I have prepared a detailed diagnosis of Russia’s economic health, from the factory to the frontline. Our findings suggest that Russia has successfully adapted its economy to sustain a war in three crucial ways. 

First, as the frenzy at its borders suggest, Russia is managing to mitigate the economic warfare of its opponents. It has found new trade partners that buy oil and sell wares which Western firms no longer supply, keeping supermarket shelves stocked. Things are lean. Russian oil sells at a discount, imported goods are shoddy and medicines elusive. But money and milk are not about to run out. 

Second, Russia is continuing to procure enough weapons and men to send to the front. The country has expended a vast amount of advanced missiles on Ukrainian targets; many of its better tanks are now carcasses on muddy roadsides. It will struggle to replace them, because the West is no longer providing many rare parts—from bearings to optical systems—needed to produce modern equipment. Meanwhile, Russia has to use ever-greater coercion to fill its ranks, and shortages of workers are common. But the country has huge stocks of Soviet era weapons it can upgrade. Simpler weapons, such as drones, can also cause damage. At the current pace, it is not about to run out of young people to draft. 

Russia’s third economic surprise has been to maintain living standards. The state is lavishing big sums on civilian companies, through handouts and subsidised loans. It is also doling out cash to families, the poor and the elderly—constituencies Mr Putin cares about ahead of presidential elections next year. The result is that most people’s welfare has been eroded, but not erased. The value of people’s savings has fallen, but wages have held relatively steady. Real GDP dropped by only 2-3% last year, and many economists reckon it will grow a bit in 2023. 

All this means Russia can endure a long war—but probably not make a big push to win it. The Kremlin can hardly gear up the war effort without undoing some of its successes, be it sending inflation to the sky, paralysing factories or losing some of its new friends. Perhaps this does not matter to Mr Putin since, short of losing Crimea, he can probably paint anything as a victory. Nonetheless, there are signs he is fretting. Spending on law enforcement is growing rapidly. To keep the war going, Russia is already being forced to use a growing share of its mighty arsenal on its own people.

Also this week:Applications are now open for our finance and economics internship. The successful candidate will spend six months with us in London, and receive payment. No previous experience is required.

Thank you to readers who have emailed us. Please continue to send us your thoughts at moneytalksnewsletter@economist.com.

We calculate that Russia’s assault on Ukraine is costing it about 5trn roubles a year, or 3% of GDP—more than America spent in Iraq in the 2000s, but less than it spent in Korea in the 1950s. 

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Bhutan: The Happy People

 

Shiny, Happy People

BHUTAN

In Bhutan, the law states that “if the government cannot create happiness for its people, there is no purpose for the government to exist.” The small, constitutional monarchy in the Himalayan mountains, taking the constitutionally enshrined “Gross National Happiness” principle seriously, therefore aims to foster sustainable development, free speech, environmental conservation, and other laudable policy goals. As a result, it’s one of the happiest developing nations in the world.

As RealClearWire wrote, however, Bhutanese citizens also must fulfill their responsibilities in exchange for this happiness. As the Buddhist maxim says, “A little effort on your part will be much more effective than a great deal of effort on the part of the government.”

For example, as the World Bank explained, the Bhutanese government helped support women who have opened businesses in rural villages to preserve local traditions and create jobs to lure younger workers who might otherwise flood into cities. Happiness was the result.

“The whole process of planning the revival of our community has given us an opportunity to listen to each other and set a new vision for the stewardship of our culture, and the nature around us,” said Madam Pem, who started a restaurant that serves almost-forgotten traditional food in Nobgang, a village in the country’s west.

Bhutanese King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck is likely one reason why Pem and her fellow citizens might be joyful about their country. Soon after he ascended to the throne in 2006, he launched a democratization process, including scrapping anti-homosexuality laws in 2021.

The king in theory wanted to distance himself from the harsher periods in his country’s history. Political prisoners who allegedly suffered torture while in Bhutan are still in jail, for example. Most are from Bhutan’s crackdown on citizens who spoke Nepali in the 1990s. The government drove these people, who represented around 16 percent of the population at the time, into exile, argued Human Rights Watch.

Bhutan faces a bigger problem with its two titanic neighbors, India and China. The three countries have been engaging in negotiations in recent years over land claims in the space where their three borders meet, India Express explained. China has been trying to separate Bhutan from India, its traditional ally, ThePrint argued, citing an anti-India commentary in the Global Times, an English-language mouthpiece for the Chinese Communist Party.

Bhutanese Prime Minister Lotay Tshering recently said China has an equal say in resolving the dispute. Objectively, he was probably correct. But many in India thought his comments were extremely concerning.

Maybe they should not worry and just be happy.


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Tuesday, April 25, 2023

Some Incredible Alternate History World War II Planes

 

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It’s 1948. The hope of Allied atomic weapons faded with the double catastrophic failure of the American Manhattan Project and the success of the Japanese atomic weapons development, of which the three prototype bombs, (of six built with their limited atomic materials, thank you, Sage), devastated the huge Allied fleet approaching Japan in the late summer of 1945, sending the Allied forces reeling back in the Pacific.

(Above: Fw 195 Fighter/fighter bomber, two 37mm cannon, supercharged Jumo 213 engine.)

The other three bombs smashed Allied counter attack fleets in the Philippines, destroyed Pearl Harbor and the sixth has still to be used. With their five A-Bombs Germany has taken back France and even England lies under occupation, and long range US and Canadian bombardment. Soviets took the brunt of the other three German atomic weapons and now a new Soviet government east of the Urals still defends half of the Soviet Union. All advancements into Jet propulsion has evaded and confounded designers, the World War rages on in both the ETO and the PTO. Nations have poured their technology and resources into a new breed of modern prop-driven aircraft…

America, always at the forefront has been demanding new designs out of its aviation companies:

(Above: North American Mustang IV powered by a Packard-built Rolls Royce Griffon V-12 inline water-cooled engine, 2,350 hp, armed with 4 20mm Hispano cannon, 6 paddle-bladed prop.)

(Above: Prototype Alternate high-speed model of the Mustang IV above, significantly lighter, with swept wings, higher-tuned engine, larger “chin” radiator for the extra beat, only two 20mm cannons, and lighter, faster, higher HP version, and two 4 bladed contra-rotating props. Potentially 500–510 MPH.)

(Above: North American has updated the superlative P-51 Mustang into the sleek new swept-wing “Super ‘Stang” P-52.)

(Above: North American also added a tail gunner to the P-51-YZ, for extra firepower when escorting the B-30’s.)

(Above: In the tradition of the Doolittle Raid, North American took their best American two-engined bomber, the B-25 Mitchell, and modified it into the new more compact/easier carrier-launched bomber the “Doolittle” B-25-Z to send on more fast baby carrier raids against Japan.)

(Above: Curtiss Sea-Thunder TBV-1A. Two 2,400 hp P&W R-2800 radial engines, pusher/puller. Armament was composed of, for the prototype, and very early versions, of one aerial 2,000 lb aerial-launched torpedo, or one 1,000 lb and two 500 lb bombs, for dive-bombing missions. Four .50 cal. wing-mounted machines guns, and the defensive-turret was equipped with two .50 cal machine guns. (In the event, necessitating, of an emergency bail-out, the aft propeller could be jettisoned, by the pilot, or aft-placed crew member, in case that the pilot was killed, or, incapacitated, by pulling an emergency lever, which activated explosive bolts, which blew-off the aft propeller, thus, making a bail-out much, much safer.)

(Above: A take on the original Curtiss-Wright twin engine WW2 AT-9"Jeep", the AT-99A is powered with four Lycoming R-680 nine cylinder air cooled engines, rated at 300 hp apiece. Forward firepower was 6 X .30 mgs and 1 X 37 mm cannon. and "defensive" armament was 7 X .30 mgs. Two located just aft of the cockpit, two placed in each outer wingtip engine pod, and one mounted underside. Outer wing pods housed a gunner, who was supposed to lay flat, with his weapons retracted, sheltered under an armored retractable shield, with no window, while the craft took off and flew until combat became obvious. Then, the tip gunners could retract their shield, pop out their weapons, and finally get some air, and then fight. This arrangement was called the "coffin"! The new AT (Attack Trainer) -99A "Super Jeep", could speed up to 381 mph, but only with the turrets retracted. Normal top speed, with everyone hanging out, was 339 mph. Tight, high speed maneuvers were discouraged, as structural failure could occur. Pilots were instructed to use their superior speed in dive-attack-climb maneuvers, and the gunners could blast away at any enemy within range.” First combats with Japanese fighters have not been hopeful.)

(Above/ two below: Curtiss has a new, updated version of their classic P-40, breaking name tradition, the “Viper,” w/dual increased displacement Allison 1710–123 V-12 liquid-cooled engines making 1,800 horses, each, dual pusher tech and six M2 .50s.)

(Above: Boeing’s incredible B-30 raids Japan from bases in northern Australia.)

(Above: Failed prototype of an 10-engined B-17, the B-31, designed as a “Euro-Bomber,” attacking German targets from Newfoundland. Fuel and weight issues grounded her.)

(Above: Boeing’s experimental B-XX bomber, a smaller, faster, and cheaper bomber now that America’s resources are being strained to the limit. Using 2 × Pratt & Whitney R-4360-4 "Wasp Major" 28-cylinder radial engine, 3,300 hp apiece, it is reported to be delivered to the Nova Scotia airbases for attacks against Luftwaffe bases in Ireland.)

(Above: The B-XX’s Big brother, the Boeing six engined B-29Y “Ultra-fortress” currently leading attacks against China, the Philippines and Japan itself, from Allied bases in northern Australia, six P&W R-4360–3 engines of 3200 hp apiece. Pressurized it can reach 50,000 feet.)

(Above: Concept only at this stage, Boeing B-17/flying wing, no info.)

(Above: Boeing Concept 400-mph, low altitude strafer ground-attack w/two tandem Allison V-3420 engines, pusher/contra-rotating props.)

(Above/below: Consolidated B-32 Dominator featured unique reversible-pitch inboard propellers, together with the Davis wing, allowing high speed, a good lift during low-angle attacks, and excellent landing performance.)

(Above: “Jolly Rodger” PBY “Raider”. Consolidated, learning their PBY Catalina needed to be both majorly down-sized (1/3) and up-gunned with a 57mm antitank gun, for a more offensive role, plus the added benefits of extra speed, as demonstrated by units like the Black Cats.)

(Above: Consolidated also sleeked their B-24 Liberator into the faster, more fuel-efficient B-24-FF “Freedom.”)

(Above: Republic has created an anti-bomber/ground attack aircraft from their tough P-47 “Thunderbolt,” with double booms, ala the P-38 “Lightning,” 4 centralized nose-mounted 20 mm Hispano cannons, and two air-cooled P&W R 3300 engines for extra survivability.)

(Above: Republic’s Thunderbolt P-47-XX2 prototype. with two P&W R-2800–61 engines making 3000 hp each.)

(Above: Martin B-21B being attack by unknown “pusher” type German fighter.)

(Above/below: Joint Republic and North American prototype of pusher-tech fighter with 4 centralised 20mm cannons, and turbo-supercharged Packard-licensed Rolls Royce Griffon-engine.)

(Above/below: Lockheed has been experimenting with new updates of their P-38 “Lightning.)

(Above: Lockheed P-38 modified prototypes: XP-49 and XP-58 Chain Lightning.)

(Above/below: Lockheed experimental wing, and two seater, P-38 know as “Swordfish,” racer Tony Le Vier called it “Nosey.”)

(Above: Folding wing: Lockheed has proposed a carrier-based "Model 822" version of the Lightning for the US Navy. The Model 822 will featured folding wings, an arresting hook, and stronger undercarriage for carrier operations.)

(Above: Cancelled Lockheed float plane version of the P-38.)

(Above: New Lockheed P-38 “Thunderstick” ground attack version of the P-38 now causing havoc on Japanese installations in the Dutch East Indies. Double-paired-Allison V-1710 engines give her 6800 total hp, and can carry 9,000 lbs of ordnance, armed with 4 20mm Hispano cannon and extra fuel in wing and wing tip tanks.)

(Above: Chance Vought has kept the best of their F4U Corsair and added pusher-configuration to create the new “Buccaneer” F5U. using 1 × Pratt & Whitney R-4360-4 "Wasp Major" 28-cylinder “Corncob” “Super Corsair” radial engine, 3,300 hp apiece, its aviators are raving about its performance.)

(Above: Chance Vought/Curtiss hybrid-F4U/P-40 prototype, abandoned.)

(Above: designer proofs of the new F4U Flash-Corsair, there are high hopes for this model.)

Britain-in-exile operating a limited number of aircraft designed out of Montreal, has also been working on a number of new designs:

(Above: The Supermarine Spitfire Mk 83 “Trident” with three Griffon-engines of 2350 hp apiece and 4 20mm cannon in the inner wings. Speeds of 518 mph have been recorded and not has been nutrimental in chasing down long range German bombers.)

(Above/below: The fantastic new Hawker “CrossFire Hurricane” update, w/6 20mm Hispano cannon, uses twin Merlins and 4 20mm Hispanos, and has lately distinguished themselves for powerful strikes against the Africa Korps in battles for Chad flying out of bases in (still) British East Africa (Kenya.)

(Above/below: Hawker prototype, pusher, six-bladed design for chasing V-4 weapons.)

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(Above: Avro’s new Lancaster up-date, nicknamed “The Buster,” features four new larger displacement Rolls Royce Merlin 66s, and increased defensive armament, with the .303’s replaced with M2 .50’s. Flying out of Kenya against the Suez Canal and captured German oil production in Persia )

(Above: Rumoured new 8 Merlin-powered Avro Super-Lancaster. High hopes for this design.)

(Above: Vickers Wellington “6” updated with 6 Napier Sabre engines of 2300 hp each, it has been running “Vengeance” missions to bomb German installations in southern England.)

(Above: Hawker “Tornado” with the huge Bristol Centaurus radial engine, making 3000 HP, more aerodynamic frame and wings and 20mm cannons. Fighter and ground/shipping attack.)

The Soviet Union fights from behind fortresses in the Ural Mountains and in eastern Siberia. Luckily much of their manufacturing was already there, and much of their minerals and gas reserves are also there. Nut they remain in a precarious position trapped between the Axis powers.

(Above: Anatov 35 12-double engines, enough fire power to sink the Tirpitz and a 3000 mile range.)

(Above: Ilyushin has upgraded it’s venerable IL-2 Shturmovik armouring it even further, and offering different weapons packages (Four 37mm cannons displayed in image,) and the larger Mikulin Am-54C liquid-cooled V12 engine.)

(Ilyushin “Vik” Attack aircraft, a dedicated ground attack aircraft based on the IL-2.)

(Above: The failed Russian Kalinin K-7 led to… )

(Above: …The Kalinin K-24, “Ural Bomber,” 8 Klimov VK-109B V-12, liquid-cooled, 1700 HP engines, push-pull technology, with w/5 “parasitical” mini-fighters for protection, capable of striking German targets in the Ukraine, Poland and even eastern Germany from bases beyond the Ural Mountains.)

(Above: Lavochkin La-12, fighter-bomber, Shvetson ASh-96FF 14 cylinder, two-row radial 2000 HP engine. Crude, easy to produce in the thousands, hard to shoot down. Not much is know, even from the Soviet allies, but at least one squadron is piloted by Cossack aviators.)

(Above: Polikarpov I-22, Double-boom design inspired by Lockheed’s P-38, with two Shvetsov M-75 9-cylinder supercharged air-cooled radial engines and quad 23mm cannon.)

(Above: Yak 22X Reconnaissance aircraft, using double-joined 2 × Klimov M-105PF V-12 liquid-cooled piston engine, of 1400 hp apiece, this sleek aircraft can reach speeds of 465 mph and has a range of 2450 miles.)

Japan, flush in resources from her “reacquired” possessions has produced a few new models but Allied intelligence is still in the dark as to some of their newest designs:

(Above/below: Joint Nakajima/Mitsubishi/Focke Wulf design, G6B “America Bomber,” 6 engined with incredible fuel capacity and capable of reaching New York from Japanese bases in the Aleutians. Not much is known about this dangerous weapon.)

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(Above/below: Nakajima G8N long-ranged 4 engine bomber.)

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(Above: Newly reported Mitsubishi A7M4-S Reppu “Chuck,” 4 engined push-pull technology.)

(Above/below: Kawasaki Ki-125, pusher-type, six 20mm centralized cannon in nose, MASSIVE engine unknown.)

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(Above: Mitsubishi J4M-Push-pull, two Mitsubishi Kasei MK5R, 14-cylinder air-cooled radial piston engines, 1,300 kW (1,800 hp) for take-off, 1,174 kW (1,575 hp) at 1,800 m (5,906 ft), 1,051 kW (1,410 hp) at 4,800 m (15,748 ft) Two 4-bladed constant-speed metal propellers.)

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(above: Mitsubishi J788, Pusher-puller type, contra-rotating 5 bladed, triple Nakajima-powered heavy long-range bomber. 9 man crew. Protected by six gun positions of double 20mm cannon. Potentially very effective.)

(Above/below: Nakajima Type 88-R, twin contra-rotating prop, 4 20mm cannon, unknown engine.)

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(Above Ki-232 four contra-rotating props, push-pull engine set up. Unknown but worrisome.)

Germany has produced almost as many new designs as the US, impressive in new technology, esp. aided by their breakthrough synthetic/petroleum blend fuel of 180 octane, helped bu the capturing of both the Caucus oil fields and especially the Persian Gulf oil.

(Above: Junkers 187 ground-attack/dive bomber w/improved rear gunner position, better aerodynamic shape, more powerful Daimler Benz DB 605 DB/DC.)

(Above: Alternate proto-type Junkers 187-PZ, Push-tech/contra-prop ground-attack/dive bomber.)

(Above: Artist rendition of rumored Junkers “ultra-light” anti-tank, the “Rudel,” for Hitler Youth Air Korps, two 37mm cannon and 5 litre 300 hp 2-cycle engine. It will likely be used against the Soviets east of the Volga.)

(Above: Junkers EF-112, anti-bomber, 2 50mm cannon, Junkers Jumo 213E 1800HP engine.)

(Above: Proposed Dornier Do 214 and 216 long-range anti-shipping flying boats. Problematic if they are actually developed.)

(Above: Henschel 132 anti-tank, w/single 50mm MK5 cannon, and two BMW 801 radial engines.)

(Above: Blohm & Voss BV 194, anti-tank, (and occasionally anti-bomber), with 76 Pak 40 variant, and Junkers Jumo 213E 1800HP engine.)

(Above: Lippisch Li P.04–106 “stealth” night fighter. Four 37mm cannon and two unknown pusher-engines.)

(Above: Messerschmidt 112, two 20mm cannon in upper fuselage and one 30mm firing through the prop. and K model, Db 605 Db/Dc. Easier and quicker to produce than the old, outdated 109, the “Mini-109″ seems to be a stop-gap measure for Messerschmidt as they gear up their new aircraft.)

(Above: Me 272, 4 30mm cannons in nose, two 6 bladed props powered by the new Db 609 AD 2100 hp engine.)

(Above/below: Messerschmidt prototype BD powered Bf 609, mid-fuselage, twin contra-props, Db 609 engine, three 30mm cannons centralised in the nose.)

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(Above: Dangerous new Bf 1099, dual-engined air superiority fighter, with two Db 605 DB/DC engines, with methane-water injection, 2300hp each on WEP, and four 20mm cannons centralised in nose. High performance has been raiding deep into British territory. Seen here against the new Hawker “Crossfire Hurricane” update, the dual Rolls Royce Griffon-power. )

(Above: AS-YET UNIDENTIFIED, Rumored update of Messerschmidt’s attack-fighter/anti-bomber Bf 110 with K model upgraded Daimler Benz 605 engines. Possible night fighter version also rumoured.)

(Above/below: Focke Wulf Ta-165, high altitude fighter, three Junkers Jumo 213E 1800HP engines, six wing mounted 20mm cannons, pressurised cabin.)

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(Above: Focke Wulf 300 “Super Condor”, eight Junkers Jumo 213E 1800HP engines, long range bomber. With massive wing tanks, 4300 mile range is possible, making targets/cities on America’s East Coast in jeopardy. Cruising speeds as high as 412 mph have been reported.)

(Above: Swept-wing FW Ta -155, very dangerous, the aircraft that decimated the last B-29 raid against German Luftwaffe bases in Wales. 4-20mm and 2-13mm.)

(Above: EWR VJ 202 experimental German vertical takeoff/landing (VTOL. Unknown specifications.)

(Above/below: Two Recon photos of huge, new unknown ultra-performance/high-altitude German prototype aircraft. Rumors of 53,000 feet.)

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(Above: Top Secret photo of an unknown aircraft type discovered crash-landed in the forests in Brazil near the Argentina border.)

(Heinkel 56 “Blitzkrieg,) pusher design, unknown engines and armament.)

(Above: Hutter Hu 136 designed with Messerschmidt, “People’s Reconnaissance,” supercharged and MW-50 injected with no armament, top speed 454 mph.)

(Above: Unknown bomber design caught on a Soviet reconnaissance flight over Moscow.)

(Some of this art is mine, some from friends, some… If you are a fan of PK Dick’s Man in the High Castle, and Luftwaffe 1946, or alternative histories, hats off to you!)