Life takes us in many strange directions and wonderful discoveries. It never turns out the way we thought it would.
Thursday, December 4, 2025
Minnesota Welfare Fraud And Ties To Terrorism
Minnesota Welfare Fraud and Alleged Ties to Terrorism
The Minnesota welfare fraud scandals, primarily involving members of the Somali-American community, have involved schemes totaling over $1 billion in stolen taxpayer funds since around 2019. These include the high-profile Feeding Our Future case (at least $250 million in federal child nutrition funds defrauded during the COVID-19 pandemic, with 78 people charged and 59 convicted as of late 2025), explosive growth in autism services fraud (claims rising from $3 million in 2018 to $399 million in 2023), and the Housing Stabilization Services (HSS) program (costs ballooning from an estimated $2.6 million annually pre-2020 to $104 million in 2023, with U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson stating the "vast majority" was fraudulent). At least 28 such scandals have been uncovered under Gov. Tim Walz's administration, per federal prosecutors.
Alleged Links to Al-Shabaab
There is no confirmed or charged amount of fraud proceeds directly funding Al-Shabaab (a U.S.-designated terrorist group affiliated with al Qaeda). Claims stem from investigative reporting and anonymous law enforcement sources, but federal and state probes (including a 2019 Minnesota Legislative Auditor report) have not substantiated direct ties, and no terrorism financing charges have been filed despite dozens of fraud convictions. Key allegations include:
Indirect Funding via Remittances: Fraudsters allegedly sent millions back to Somalia through informal hawala networks (unregulated money transfer systems). Al-Shabaab is said to tax these transfers, benefiting the group regardless of intent. A retired Seattle Police detective (Glenn Kerns) traced $20 million routed abroad in a single year via hawala, with sources claiming the group takes a cut on "every cent" sent from Minnesota's Somali community. A former Minneapolis Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF) official echoed this, calling Minnesota taxpayers "the largest funder of Al-Shabaab" through these channels.
No Specific Figure: Reports describe "millions" overall but provide no precise dollar amount reaching terrorists. Proceeds were often spent on U.S. luxuries (e.g., luxury cars, real estate) rather than overseas transfers, and Somalia's lack of formal banking complicates tracking.
Investigation Status
Federal prosecutors in Minnesota have pursued fraud aggressively but found no ideological motive—defendants were "looking to get rich," per former U.S. Attorney Andy Luger.
On December 1, 2025, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a new probe into potential Al-Shabaab links, citing the scandals and ordering a review of Biden/Walz-era oversight. This overlaps with ongoing DOJ work, drawing criticism as duplicative.
Conservative outlets (e.g., City Journal by Christopher Rufo and Ryan G. Thorpe) amplified the claims, prompting political attacks on Walz, but outlets like the Minnesota Reformer label them "sloppy" and unsubstantiated.
Many victims of these schemes are Somali immigrants themselves, and experts emphasize root causes like program vulnerabilities during COVID rather than community-wide issues. For updates, monitor the U.S. Attorney's Office for Minnesota or Treasury announcements. If you need details on specific cases, let me know!2.5s
Wednesday, December 3, 2025
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Monday, December 1, 2025
Sunday, November 30, 2025
Saturday, November 29, 2025
Brief Glimpses Of Tehran Today
In brief glimpses of Tehran, an AP journalist sees a changing and challenged Iran
By Jon Gambrell,
7 hours ago
Iran Changing Tehran Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
As you enter Iran’s capital, it starts with only occasional glimpses — a passenger in a car speeding by or a pedestrian trying to leapfrog through Tehran’s notorious traffic. But as you reach the cooler heights of Tehran’s northern neighborhoods along the city’s sycamore-lined Vali-e Asr Street, they are almost everywhere, women with their brown, black, blonde and gray locks.
More and more, Iranian women choose to forgo the country’s mandatory headscarf, or hijab.
It was something unthinkable just a few years earlier in the Islamic Republic, whose conservative Shiite clerics and hard-line politicians long pushed for strict enforcement of laws requiring women to cover their hair. But the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini and the nationwide protests that followed enraged women of all ages and views in a way few other issues have since the country's 1979 Islamic Revolution.
“When I moved to Iran in 1999, letting a single strand of hair show would immediately prompt someone to tell me to tuck it back under my headscarf out of fear of the morality police taking me away,” said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “To see where Iran is today feels unimaginable: Women and girls openly defying mandatory hijab.”
"Authorities are overwhelmed by the sheer numbers across the country and worry that if they crack down — at a delicate time marked by power blackouts, water shortages, and a rotten economy — they could spur Iranians to return to the streets."
First trip to Iran in years
I received a three-day visa from the government to attend a summit addressed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as tensions remain high over Tehran's nuclear program. Access to reporting beyond the summit was limited, but the trip gave me my first look on the ground in Iran since my last visits in 2018 and 2019.
In those intervening years, I had watched from abroad in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, in my role overseeing the Associated Press’ coverage of Iran and the Gulf Arab states as Iran was roiled by protests over the economy and Amini's death, the coronavirus pandemic and a 12-day war with Israel.
For the past 46 years, Iran’s rulers have imposed the hijab rule. At the strictest times, the police and the Basijis, the all-volunteer force of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, kept a close eye on women in the streets to ensure compliance.
Whenever the atmosphere felt laxer, many women pushed their scarves further and further back on their head — small challenges to the government on how much hair can you get away with showing. But they rarely dared to remove it.
More women choosing to go without the hijab
Working remotely with my AP colleagues in Iran, I knew from their reporting, photographs and video footage from the streets on even unrelated assignments that women had begun to drop the hijab completely. But I didn't fully understand the scale of that refusal until I saw it myself.
Around Tajrish Square, at the foot of Tehran's Alborz Mountains, one group of young girls who are required to wear the hijab to school immediately removed them after leaving in the afternoon. They darted between cars idling through traffic, laughing and carrying art projects. Women of all ages went uncovered at the Tajrish Bazaar and walking past the blue-tile domes of the Imamzadeh Saleh shrine. Two police officers on the street talked among themselves as the women passed by unremarked.
At the luxury Espinas Palace Hotel, multiple uncovered women walked past the signs reading, “Please observe the Islamic hijab” with the black-and-white outline of a woman in hijab.
A foreign diplomat’s wife attended a dinner for the summit without one. An Iranian woman in attendance briefly put one over her head while in discussion with a hotel staff member, then let it fall fully to her shoulders a moment later.
Those sites were in northern Tehran, an affluent area that is generally more liberal. But even in a more conservative southern district, an uncovered woman walked quickly down the street among others in the all-encompassing black chador.
“All of my life I had to wear hijab, at school, at university, everywhere in public,” one Iranian woman who recently emigrated to Canada told me after I returned to Dubai, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal.
“I always tried to follow the rules but it made me feel a lack of confidence … because I wore the hijab and I didn’t believe in that.”
Signs of the war could be seen too. I saw one apartment building, its top-floor apartment still in ruins from an Israeli strike as well.
Dissatisfaction simmers under the surface
Hard-liners within Iran's theocracy repeatedly have called for increased enforcement of the hijab laws. Iran's reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has pushed to halt that, saying in September in an interview with NBC News that “human beings have a right to choose."
Iran's top authority, 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has so far left the hijab issue alone after this year's war with Israel, which also saw the United States bomb Iranian nuclear enrichment sites. Also on hold is any change to Iran's government-subsidized gasoline prices, among the cheapest in the world, despite increasing economic pressure on the country as its rial currency trades at over 1 million to $1.
The reason likely rests in the widespread dissatisfaction of Iran's people with its theocracy at the moment. Previous government actions on both issues led to nationwide protests and security force crackdowns that killed hundreds and saw thousands detained.
In recent days, Pezeshkian's social affairs adviser Mohammad-Javad Javadi-Yeganeh acknowledged data from an unpublished survey by the state-linked Iranian Students Polling Agency. The polling reportedly suggested widespread discontent with the government, something not previously acknowledged by officials who have repeatedly contended that the country came together during the 12-day war. Fear of another war breaking out permeates conversations across Tehran.
“When we visit provinces, we see in surveys that people are discontent about the administration," Pezeshkian recently said, without directly acknowledging the polling. "We are answerable since we cannot provide services to people.”
The polling tracks with widespread voter discontent and a low turnout during last year's initial presidential vote.
“Years of economic hardship, inflation, currency volatility, unemployment and public frustration over environmental and social challenges have sharply eroded trust in institutions,” the Washington-based National Iranian American Council said in an analysis about the reported polling data.
Yet the worry of a renewed government crackdown persists for a population exhausted by the grind of international sanctions and the widespread fear that another war with Israel will come.
“Sometimes that fear is with me,” the Iranian woman living in Canada said. “Sometimes when I’m behind the wheel, I try to find my headscarf on my head. That fear is still with me.”
___
The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
Friday, November 28, 2025
Thursday, November 27, 2025
An Amazing New Cancer Cure
How does nonchemotherapy cancer treatment Anktiva work?
By Zach KaplanAshley N. Soriano,
1 days ago
If you missed NewsNation’s “Killing Cancer: The Power Within” special report, you can see an encore presentation on Thursday at 9p/8C. Click here to find NewsNation in your lineup.
(NewsNation) — Billionaire Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong developed a new cancer therapy, Anktiva, that does not require patients to go through chemotherapy. But how does it work?
According to ImmunityBio, the company that developed Anktiva, the treatment harnesses the body’s immune system to destroy cancer tumors, which could make chemotherapy obsolete. While it received FDA approval to treat a specific form of bladder cancer, Soon-Shiong says the drug, which he claims has had miraculous results, has faced regulatory hurdles.
Read this article to learn more about Anktiva from Dr. Soon-Shiong himself. You can also read more of his articles here or follow his X account @DrPatSoonShiong.
‘Killing Cancer: The Power Within’: NewsNation special
Here’s what we know about how Anktiva works:
Anktiva is an immunotherapy that aids the natural killer cells
Anktiva is not a chemotherapy or gene therapy. It’s an immunotherapy that activates the body’s cancer-fighting cells.
“You have, in your body, God-given, a cell that kills cancer, that kills TB, that kills HIV, that kills COVID, a cell called the natural killer cell that is your body’s first responder,” Soon-Shiong explained to NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo in an hourlong special, “Killing Cancer: The Power Within.”
The natural killer cells have a receptor “that’s looking for a protein that your body makes called interleukin 15 (Il-15),” he explained.
“Anktiva is that IL-15,” Soon-Shiong said. “It is the switch that actually binds to the NK cell and activates and proliferates them.”
‘Saved my life’: Patients praise Anktiva effectiveness
In other words, when the natural killer cell is treated with IL-15, the cell becomes stronger, more durable and multiplies faster, making the body better equipped to take on and kill cancer cells.
Anktiva is combined with BCG, or Bacillus Calmette-Guérin, an immunotherapy drug delivered to the bladder through a catheter.
Currently, Anktiva is only approved by the FDA to treat adult patients with stage zero BCG-unresponsive nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer, with carcinoma in situ with or without papillary tumors.
In May, the FDA refused to expand Anktiva’s use to patients with BCG-unresponsive nonmuscle NMIBC who have papillary disease only.
Protecting natural killer cells may cure cancer: Soon-Shiong
Anktiva sets itself apart by enhancing the function of natural killer cells instead of diminishing them.
The most common cancer treatments in use today, chemotherapy and radiation, hurt the natural killer cell.
Soon-Shiong explains that “everything, from radiation to chemotherapy, the toxins we eat, to the stress, has been inducing the destruction of the natural killer cell.”
“The only thing that you need to protect in your body is your natural killer cell. And if you protect that, that’s what actually not only prevents cancer, but treats cancer and maybe cures cancer,” he said.
How does Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong’s cancer treatment work?
What other doctors say about Anktiva
In NewsNation’s special, “Killing Cancer: The Power Within,” other doctors expressed enthusiasm for Soon-Shiong’s breakthrough in cancer treatment.
“There’s so many patients with cancers, afflicted with cancer, that we could do so much more for,” said Dr. Steven Finkelstein, the national director of radiation oncology with U.S. Urology Partners. He explained that the cancer research field is desperate for a change.
“(Soon-Shiong) has something that he’s seen work … and patients have gotten a therapy that has made their cancer better,” Finkelstein said. “And that’s why it’s so important to figure out if it works, to get it to a place where everyone gets access.”
Dr. Simon Khagi, the medical director of neuro-oncology at Hoag Family Cancer Institute and a board-certified medical and neurological oncologist, also expressed support for an expedited approval process.
“I think the rules need to be maybe a little different, maybe a little bit more relaxed to allow for things and development to move faster,” Khagi said.
Soon-Shiong continues to lobby President Donald Trump’s administration to support expanding Anktiva’s use for other types of cancer.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to NewsNation.
Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Tuesday, November 25, 2025
Trump To Announce Extension Of ACA Tax Credits For Two Years
Trump to announce extension of ACA tax credits for two years
By Joe Sommerlad,
20 hours ago
President Donald Trump appears poised to announce a two-year extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies, due to expire at the end of December, while setting new limits on who is eligible to receive the tax credits, according to reports.
Without an extension of Covid-19-era Obamacare subsidies, insurance premiums for nearly 22 million American citizens threaten to more than double early next year, a point made repeatedly by Democrats during the recent 43-day government shutdown, who refused to sign a stopgap spending bill that did not address the problem.
The president could unveil his new proposal as early as Monday, according to MS NOW, presenting a new healthcare framework and calling on Congress to send a bill to the Oval Office for his signature as soon as possible.
President Donald Trump flanked by Health and Human Services Robert F Kennedy Jr and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Dr Mehmet Oz at the White House in September (AP)
Senate Republicans did promise to hold a vote on the matter by mid-December to a group of eight Democrats in the chamber as a condition of securing their support on a bill to end the shutdown earlier this month.
Trump’s plan will be called the “Healthcare Price Cuts Act,” according to White House officials cited by MS NOW, and would address the “surprise premium hikes” resulting from ACA subsidy expirations.
It would require recipients to make a minimum premium payment, according to Axios, and also eliminate the “zero-premium” subsidies currently offered under Obamacare to stop fraudulent “ghost beneficiaries” from exploiting the system – a Republican bugbear.
The plan is further understood to feature a deposit program that would incentivize people to buy lower-premium options on the ACA exchange.
Anyone who downgrades their coverage under the new proposals would see the difference in costs distributed to a “Health Savings Account” provided with taxpayer dollars, MS NOW reports.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune convinced eight Democrats to help end the record government shutdown this month by promising a vote to address expiring ACA subsidies (AP)
“We believe healthcare is going to come down,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessentsaid on NBC’s Meet the Press Sunday before trailing an imminent announcement on tackling costs and acknowledging that the issue of affordability is becoming increasingly urgent as the holiday season approaches.
There is a clear desire for Washington to act on the ACA deadline, with a recent poll from the non-partisan healthcare research group KFF revealing that 74 percent of Americans want to see the subsidies extended, an opinion shared by 50 percent of Republicans specifically.
Trump will reportedly make his announcement at the White House in the presence of Dr. Mehmet Oz, his administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
The president had previously expressed opposition to simply signing off on an extension of the current subsidies, arguing instead that the money involved should be allowed to bypass insurance companies and sent directly to consumers to shop for their own health coverage.
He suggested an act to that effect should be known as “Trumpcare” and claimed it would empower citizens and leave them feeling like entrepreneurs.
Monday, November 24, 2025
Sunday, November 23, 2025
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Russia's Appalling Losses In Ukraine
Opinion: Putin’s ‘Mad Max’ army lurches forward amid appalling casualties
By Jonathan SweetMark Toth,
3 days ago
“There are two types of people on the battlefield — the quick and the dead.” This Army saying is instilled in basic training then reinforced throughout one’s military career.
Until last month, Ukraine was “the quick” in its defensive war against Russia. Kyiv, since day one of the war, has understood that to be quick requires embracing innovations and adaptations in techniques, tactics and procedures. Winners change methods, employment, and utilization of troops and weapon systems on the battlefield as needed. He who adapts fastest wins.
Kyiv has repeatedly come out ahead in this regard. It has modified weapon systems to extend their ranges, enabling them to strike deep within the Russian interior. This has single-handedly created a Revolution in military affairs. Ukraine’s deployment of drones in modern warfare, alongside other new tactics, is designed to defeat a Russian invader intent on mass infantry charges and artillery as the primary means to win.
Russia, in contrast, has been stuck in World War II-era tactics — more infantry, more tanks, more artillery more effort. Their only playbook has been to attack, attack, and attack some more until complete destruction of the objective is achieved — then move on to the next objective. The Russians have to deploy barrier troops to prevent their men from retreating and ensure forward momentum.
After 45 months of combat, this playbook has cost Russia more than 1.1 million casualties, more than 11,000 tanks, nearly 24,000 armored fighting vehicles, and nearly 36,000 artillery and multiple launch rocket systems.
Human life is not part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cost-calculus. The ends — and the only end really does seem to be the destruction of Ukraine — justify the means. The Kremlin will find more bodies to fill the uniforms — whether it’s mercenaries, conscripts, reserves, prisoners, or foreign fighters from North Korea, Chechnya, Cuba and Africa.
Yet something has changed as the two sides battle it out over Pokrovsk. Russian ground forces have suddenly tried something new. Stefan Korshak writes in the Kyiv Post that they have tried infiltrating the Ukrainian side with smaller units and “going to ground” inside of the town and behind enemy lines. They then reappear to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and command from the rear, engaging in street fighting and close-quarters battles while evading Ukraine drones.
As one officer observed, “very often there are situations when the enemy appears in Pokrovsk where we do not expect him.” Kyiv has been forced to employ Special Operation Forces to oust them.
By attacking from within while still applying pressure from outside, Russian ground forces are threatening Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad. Last Sunday, they slowed the tempo of their ground activity to “extend logistics and bring up reinforcements to southern Pokrovsk.” Putin has elevated the outcome of the battle for Pokrovsk to a “must-win” status.
His generals have been fighting for what is now mostly a symbolic piece of terrain for 21 months. Having deployed 110,000 Russian soldiers in the area, he is determined to conquer the town. As Shaun Pinner reflected, “Pokrovsk represents a place where Russia feels it must win, and where the Ukrainian armed forces are making them pay dearly for trying.”
Putin told the White House and U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in September that he intends to occupy Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region by the end of 2025. He needs Pokrovsk to make that happen — to build momentum necessary to eventually attack Ukraine’s four-city fortress belt of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka.
Videos of Russian soldiers advancing towards Pokrovsk depict a disorganized, Mad Max, pick-up game of sorts. Bad weather, specifically fog, provides some concealment as they approach the battle lines. Pokrovsk is simply the next town. In 2023 it was Bakhmut, in 2024 it was Avdiivka. Putin will reinforce failure, continue his attacks, and thousands more will die for his aspirations — not in defense of Russia, but to satisfy his own delusions.
For the defenders of Pokrovsk and future towns to be determined, finding and blocking Russian infiltration lanes is now a priority. The Ukrainian military, already stretched thin, must now cover even more terrain.
As retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges noted recently on Polish state television, “It is very difficult to hold terrain, especially built-up areas, with just drones. You need manpower, and lots of artillery and rocket capability to defend over these long fronts … In the defense, you still need manpower.”
Mounted assaults can be narrowed down to a few avenues of approaches based on terrain analysis. Infiltration lanes, however, are numerous. In the absence of manpower, the equalizer becomes interdiction. More attention and resources must be allocated to the area between the close and deep fight.
As Frederick the Great said, “one who defends everything defends nothing.” Therefore, Ukraine must attack at the source — the assembly areas behind Russian lines — before they can split up into smaller groups to infiltrate into rear areas.
For Russia, masking 110,000 soldiers and their equipment will be a challenge. They are vulnerable in their assembly areas and fuel points, and also when they move. NATO and the U.S. must do more to get artillery forward — tubes and munitions — to strike them before they reach the front line.
But successful interdiction will not be enough. Russia continues to bomb Ukrainian population centers and has returned to targeting energy infrastructure to weaponize the coming winter.
Ukraine must tweak its strategy to find balance in deep strikes intent on crippling the Kremlin’s ability to fund and sustain the war, while defending their homeland.
During an attack on Ukraine Saturday evening, they were able to shoot down 89 percent of the Russian drones fired, but only 20 percent of the missiles. An 80 percent failure rate is unacceptable. Europe must do more to provide Ukraine an effective integrated air and missile defense capability and establish a no-fly zone.
Deep strikes on oil refineries are achieving the desired effect. However, as Hodges emphasized, Ukraine must develop a methodology to asymmetrically engage Russia’s shadow fleet in ports while its ships take on oil.
All eyes are on Pokrovsk this week, but regardless of the outcome, the war will continue until Russia is forced to stop attacking. The “just enough” strategy of barely preventing Ukraine from losing is still not enough against Putin’s changing Mad Max army.
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Saturday, November 15, 2025
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Wednesday, November 12, 2025
The US vs Venezuela-What Is Going On?
Title: These are the potential operations the Pentagon is planning against Venezuela
Back in September, the US military dispatched a sizable force near Venezuela. Yet one that was still moderate in size, limiting what it could pull off. So the US mostly settled with intercepting and destroying what it called narcocartel’s speedboats.
But since then, the US has made further preparations and has sent additional forces. It seems the goal of toppling Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan president, and changing his authoritarian government, might be in its sights. This video will explore what military options might help the US achieve that and what sort of attacks the US might perform.
Since our previous video in September, US forces stationed near Venezuela, on route to Venezuela, or patrolling near Venezuela have increased dramatically. More Burke-class destroyers were added, as were a special operations ship and resupply ships.
Plus, the Ford aircraft carrier, US most modern and biggest carrier, is en route to the area, or has perhaps even already arrived, accompanied by one more Burke destroyer and a resupply ship.
US forces
September
2 Burke destroyers
1 Tico cruiser
1 nuclear submarine
1 LCS corvette
2 San Antonio amphibious assault ships
1 Iwo Jima amphibious/air assault ship
November
4 Burke destroyers
1 Tico cruiser
1+ Nuclear submarine
1 LCS corvette
2 San Antonio amphibious assault ships
1 Iwo Jima amphibious/air assault ship
1 Special ops ship
2 Resupply ships
1 Hospital ship
1 Submarine support ship
Back in September, additional airbase work was observed in one location in Puerto Rico. By November, three bases had seen modifications. Including a larger apron, enlarged taxiways, and possibly even longer runways. In addition to various mobile control and security equipment brought in.
September
Air power (including aircraft on Iwo Jima)
10 F-35B
4-6 Harriers
4-6 Viper attack helicopters
12+ Osprey rotorcraft
Several CH-53 heavy helicopters
12+ Venom/Seahawk helicopters
Several Reaper drones
A few P-8 ISR planes are operating nearby
November
Air power (including aircraft on Iwo Jima/Ford)
44-48 F-18E/F
Several F-18G electronic warfare planes
Several E-2D radar surveillance planes
10 F-35B
4-6 Harriers
4-6 Viper attack helicopters
12+ Osprey rotorcraft
Several CH-53 heavy helicopters
16+ Venom/Seahawk helicopters
Several Reaper drones
A few P-8 ISR planes operating nearby
A few B-1B bombers operating periodically
A few B-52 bombers operating periodically
Roosevelt Roads Base and Rafael Hernández Airport, both in Puerto Rico, saw the said additional work done. As did Henry Rohlsen Airport in the US Virgin Islands territory east of Puerto Rico. The US wouldn’t have gone into such infrastructure investment unless there were gonna be some serious air operations done from all those bases. Keep in mind, the US also has the Guantanamo base in Cuba, which, in theory, could also be used, if beefed up further, but for political reasons, that might be the last resort.
At least 40 but probably more C-17 flights were observed into Puerto Rico since September, bringing in various equipment. The US is evidently gearing up for something bigger than was evident back in September.
Now, we won’t talk about Venezuelan forces much as those are far from being important. Even IF the Venezuelan military were to react to US strikes, even if enough of its air defenses and Air Force survived, and even if enough were willing to try to attack US assets, there’s hardly anything Venezuela could do. At best, some lucky interceptions of US planes and rotorcraft might happen.
The media were full of news of Russia sending air defenses, but so far, a single Ilyushin 76 plane has been observed coming to Venezuela. At best, it could’ve carried something like a few Pantsir vehicles or some Buk missiles or launchers. It is possible a few more flights sneaked past undetected, but even so, it’s not easy to transport a whole air defense battery by air. A single Ilyushin 76 might transport 2 Buk launch vehicles, so the whole battery would require close to a dozen flights.
So, even if Venezuelan air defenses have been beefed up a little, it’s not gonna amount to much. Venezuela would be wise to disperse those assets as much as possible and use them very sporadically, basically never using their radars as the primary means of aircraft detection. Even if it means relying on other, smaller radars or even relying on other obsolete means for detection. Then, if close enough, and if lucky enough to stop and shoot quickly, it might catch some unlucky US low or medium altitude aircraft or rotorcraft off guard.
Venezuelan SAM batteries were previously known
2 S-300VM
2 Buk M2
4 Pechora 2M
Possible additions
A few/several Pantsir S1 vehicles
A few Buk M2 vehicles
Such an ambush would increase the chances of the US detecting the SAM battery and blowing it up. With the massive number of satellites, side-looking radar-equipped surveillance planes peeking at Venezuela from a few hundred miles away, and probably US informants on the ground, it’s quite plausible the US is already tracking most of Venezuela's SAM batteries.
The Venezuelan Air Force would hardly be a threat. It’d get bombed on the ground by cruise missiles and stand-off bombs. At best, Venezuela might be able to disperse some planes beforehand. And likely keep them hidden during the whole ordeal. Any and every airstrip in Venezuela is likely monitored 24/7 and would be hard-pressed to launch su30 missions. Let alone successful ones. And anyway, Su-30s are 30 years old technology nowadays.
Venezuela had up to 18 F-16A, but only a few may be flightworthy
It has 21 Su-30MKV
Perhaps the biggest threat to the US might be various shoulder-launched missiles, if the US goes for troop insertions deep inside Venezuela via rotorcraft. Venezuela has received thousands of Russian Igla MANPADs, on top of having some Western MANPADs as well. With rotorcraft being slow and with plenty of treeline protection, shoulder-launch missile operators could detect targets early enough to fire off some shots into mostly helpless targets.
4000-5000 Igla
400 RBS-70
Maybe some Mistral
But all that really depends on what the US wants to do. Here are some possibilities. The US is already likely doing CIA covert missions inside Venezuela. Said missions were publicly approved.
The forces the US has are still really insufficient for an invasion. Three assault ships can land some 22 hundred marines in one go, but even if the US has further troops prepped, it’s unlikely to be a figure many times over. And it’d be likely to take days and weeks until further troops are used.
Venezuela’s ground force
63,000 active army personnel
15,000 marines
23,000 National Guard
220,000 paramilitaries
But a full-scale invasion of Venezuela is likely not what the US is after. There’s one immediate goal: after Trump makes the final decision, and after a legal go-ahead for attacks is produced. To change who runs Venezuela. That means toppling Maduro. There are several ways to go about it, but they all boil down to these two. Either pressure Maduro and his clique to flee. Or to convince people around Maduro to rise up and get rid of him. Now, everything done so far by the US is likely a form of pressure. The US hopes Maduro will get scared and simply leave the country, leaving a political vacuum that the US could influence and control. Even the slow but inevitable cruise of the Ford carrier to the Caribbean is part of the show.
If pure intimidation fails, bombs may start falling. At that point, it’s less likely the US would be content with letting Maduro flee. So then the option of pressuring others into performing a coup d’etat might be more likely.
And who gets bombed, how much, and where do US forces go - that can help convince those people around Maduro to topple him. We’re not talking about the general population. But about people enabling Maduro’s governance.
While a lot of this is speculative, it’s plausible that a lot of the military in Venezuela is integrated into and or connected with various drug cartels. So, it’d be easy to imagine a deal: as long as Maduro’s government doesn’t interfere with the drug deals, the military stays loyal. Now, if the US were to start attacking narcocartels’ assets, especially with an under-the-table promise to stop once Maduro is out, cartels might rebel against Maduro. And with them, a lot of the armed forces, including higher echelons.
Action against cartels might include US troop insertions, as we’re not talking about tens of thousands of troops opposing them. And if anti-cartel ops aren’t enough, the US might go for long-term pressure. Like bombing and raiding Venezuela’s oil production and oil export assets. Refineries, ships, and so on.
Venezuela’s economy has been in tatters for a long time, and its main driver has been oil export, run by a government-owned company. And oil makes up for two-thirds of all the country’s exports.
Venezuela GDP 2024 - $106 billion
Exports $26 billion in 2024 (World Bank, goods and services)
Imports $9 billion
Oil and fossil fuel exports $17.5 billion in 2024
So oil is two thirds.
Even more worryingly for Maduro, oil exports make up half the total state budget. If those stop, the country will quickly go bankrupt. And then all hell can break loose. With possibly many of the officers around Maduro switching sides, once they realize the day they stop getting paid may be close.
Of course, such strikes would come in a package with a general show of force. US bombing Venezuelan military sites, bases, and a campaign of decapitation of various leadership around Maduro and his generals. Be it via air strikes or assassinations. With the ultimate goal of sowing fear among Maduro's ranks. No one would know who could be next to be killed. Unless Maduro is toppled.
So that’s where we’re at. The US aims to pressure the cartels and generals around Maduro to get him out of power. It’s a plan that has a high likelihood of working, depending on the amount of pressure applied. Which means that if at first Maduro doesn’t go, the US might be bringing in even more forces, prolonging the whole bombing campaign. Right now, no final decision has been made, but the US is building up those forces and bases for a reason. Time will tell.
Sunday, November 9, 2025
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The Affordable Care Act Will Survive Despite The Best Efforts of President Trump
The Existentialist Republic
The ACA Has an Absolute Bombshell Hidden in It, and Dems Can Take Advantage of It
We can build a system that is resilient to Trump's sabotage efforts.
Christopher Armitage
Nov 01, 2025
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California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Washington combined represent 87 million people. If those five states formed a unified health insurance market, they would have enough negotiating power to force down hospital reimbursement rates, slash pharmaceutical prices, and cut premiums by hundreds of dollars per month. The legal authority to do this already exists.
Section 1333 of the Affordable Care Act explicitly authorizes states to form Health Care Choice Compacts where qualified health plans operate across state lines. The provision became law in 2010. It took effect January 1, 2016. Zero states have used it. Not one.
Democratic governors are forming regional alliances to coordinate vaccine recommendations, which is progress, but Section 1333 (42 U.S.C. § 18053) offers something transformative: actual market power to deliver billions in savings to tens of millions of people. The law has been sitting there for 15 years, waiting to be deployed.
Specifically, section 1333 permits two or more states to enter into compacts allowing health insurance issuers to sell qualified health plans across state lines. States must pass enabling legislation, then apply to the Department ot Health and Human Services (HHS) for approval. HHS must approve any compact if it provides coverage at least as comprehensive as essential health benefits, maintains affordability protections at least as strong as the ACA, covers at least as many residents, does not increase the federal deficit, and does not weaken enforcement of applicable laws. These guardrails ensure compacts create genuine public benefit rather than allowing junk insurance to cross borders.
Although the provision became effective January 1, 2016, HHS has never issued implementing regulations, though federal law does not require them. According to the 2019 Federal Register, HHS received zero applications and zero states had passed enabling legislation. Georgetown University's Center on Health Insurance Reforms confirmed in 2025 that this status remains unchanged after 15 years. The authority sits dormant.
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Colorado launched its public option in 2023. The program enrolled 132,791 people in 2025, nearly half of marketplace enrollment. Lowest cost Silver plan premiums dropped by $100 per month. Now imagine that market power scaled up. An interstate public option covering 87 million people gives state governments leverage to negotiate hospital reimbursement rates, pharmaceutical prices, and administrative fees that individual state programs cannot achieve.
If an interstate public option achieved Colorado's $100 monthly savings across just 10 percent of that market, families save $10 billion annually. The Northwest Prescription Drug Consortium documented over $99 million in savings from 2016 to 2019 through coordinated purchasing. Healthcare insurance purchasing operates on the same economic principles. Bigger markets drive better prices.
Political barriers, not legal or economic ones, explain why Section 1333 remains unused. HHS under both parties never issued regulations. States never pressured for action. Health insurance lobbying groups oppose anything increasing government negotiating power. State insurance regulators protect turf. Provider networks represent the operational challenge, but combined market power solves this. An interstate public option representing 87 million people has leverage to bring providers to the table. States could require provider participation as a condition of Medicaid contracts or facility licensing.
Some analysts argue Section 1333 was designed to enable conservative deregulation rather than progressive public options. Republicans included the provision hoping states would use it to allow cheaper, less comprehensive plans to compete across borders. That political origin does not change what the statute actually authorizes. The text requires comprehensive benefits and affordability protections. States can use Section 1333 to build exactly what the provision's original sponsors feared: genuine public alternatives with real market power.
Blue state governors formed regional health alliances to coordinate vaccine guidance after Trump administration officials gutted federal public health agencies. Those alliances demonstrate appetite for interstate cooperation and frustration with federal dysfunction. But vaccine recommendations do not materially change people's economic circumstances. An interstate public option covering tens of millions of people with billions in savings does.
Section 1333 represents unused legal authority sitting dormant while the public pay inflated premiums. This is actual resistance with material consequences. Not symbolic gestures. Real policy delivering real savings to the public.
Ten Democratic governors need to hear that this matters. Contact them and tell them you want them to use Section 1333 authority to create an interstate public option. Explain that an interstate public option covering tens of millions of people would have negotiating power to drive down premiums, reduce pharmaceutical costs, and force hospitals to accept reasonable reimbursement rates.
Also, mention that Colorado's public option achieved an average of $1,200 per year premium savings, and scaled across multiple states this could save families billions annually. Then personalize your message with your own story about why healthcare costs matter to you. Ask them to work together to draft Section 1333 compact legislation. Tell them this is how blue states actually fight back, not with strongly worded letters but with policies that materially improve people's lives.
You can support the work being done at TheExistentialistRepublic.com by checking out or even just sharing your favorite merch.
Contact these governors:
California Governor Gavin Newsom: https://www.gov.ca.gov/contact/ | Phone: (916) 445-2841
New York Governor Kathy Hochul: https://www.governor.ny.gov/content/governor-contact-form
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker: https://gov.illinois.gov/contact-us/contact-the-governor.html | Phone: (217) 782-0244
Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey: https://www.mass.gov/info-details/email-the-governors-office | Phone: (617) 725-4005
Washington Governor Bob Ferguson: https://governor.wa.gov/contacting-governor/contacting-governors-office | Phone: (360) 902-4111
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: https://www.pa.gov/governor | Phone: (717) 788-8990
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/contact | Phone: (517) 335-7858
Colorado Governor Jared Polis: https://governorsoffice.colorado.gov/governor/contact-us | Phone: (303) 866-2471
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy: https://www.nj.gov/governor/contact/all/ | Phone: (609) 292-6000
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz: https://mn.gov/governor/contact/ | Phone: (651) 201-3400
Send your message today. Healthcare costs are crushing people. Democratic governors have the legal authority to do something about it right now. They just need to use it.
Author's note: I wanted to congratulate Glass Empires and W. A. Lawrence on breaking the top 100 for US Politics on Substack. Her content is top notch and I encourage you all to check out some of her explorations and insights on the role of psychology and narrative in the modern political climate.
References
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. (2019, March 11). Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; Increasing consumer choice through the sale of individual health insurance coverage across state lines through health care choice compacts. Federal Register, 84(47), 8657–8660. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/03/11/2019-04270
Colorado Division of Insurance. (2025, January 15). Colorado Option lowers premiums and saves Coloradans money – Findings from Brown University research [Press release]. https://doi.colorado.gov/news-releases-consumer-advisories/colorado-option-lowers-premiums-and-saves-coloradans-money
Governor of California. (2025, September 3). California, Oregon, and Washington to launch new West Coast Health Alliance to uphold scientific integrity in public health as Trump destroys CDC's credibility [Press release]. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/09/03/california-oregon-and-washington-to-launch-new-west-coast-health-alliance-to-uphold-scientific-integrity-in-public-health-as-trump-destroys-cdcs-credibility/
Governor of California. (2025, September 4). Hawaii to join West Coast Health Alliance with California, Oregon, and Washington [Press release]. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/09/04/hawaii-to-join-west-coast-health-alliance-with-california-oregon-and-washington/
Massachusetts Department of Public Health. (2025, September 18). Several Northeastern states and America's largest city announce the Northeast Public Health Collaborative [Press release]. https://www.mass.gov/news/several-northeastern-states-and-americas-largest-city-announce-the-northeast-public-health-collaborative
Murray, R. C., & Whaley, C. M. (2025, January 15). Can public option plans improve affordability? Insights from Colorado. Health Affairs Forefront. https://doi.org/10.1377/forefront.20250113.844529
Northwest Prescription Drug Consortium. (2020). NW Consortium overview [Presentation to Nevada Legislature]. Nevada Legislature. https://www.leg.state.nv.us/App/InterimCommittee/REL/Document/15817
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act § 1333, 42 U.S.C. § 18053 (2010).
Pogue, S. (2025, March 27). A blast from the past: Dusting off ACA Section 1333 compacts. Center on Health Insurance Reforms. https://chirblog.org/a-blast-from-the-past-dusting-off-aca-section-1333-compacts/
Polis, J. (2025, January 23). Governor Polis, Lt. Governor Primavera, and Colorado Division of Insurance announce record 2025 Colorado Option enrollment numbers [Press release]. State of Colorado, Office of the Governor. https://www.colorado.gov/governor/news/governor-polis-lt-governor-primavera-and-colorado-division-insurance-announce-record-2025
Thursday, October 30, 2025
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Friday, October 24, 2025
The Movie "A House Of Dynamite"-New Perspectives
“A House of Dynamite” is one of those rare films that makes one exclaim: “Oh my God, that is what it is really like!” Sadly, Kathryn Bigelow had only one hour and fifty-five minutes to tell you a story that should have taken four hours to tell. Please allow me to “fill in the blanks.”
What we have here is a nuclear terrorism event on a grand scale. Some years ago, President Bush 2’s expert on nuclear terrorism wrote a short novel in documentary form titled. “The Right of Boom.” In the book, an unnamed terrorist group smuggles in a 20-kiloton Hiroshima-style nuclear warhead into Washington, DC. Please bear in mind that the nuclear warhead heading for Chicago in the film is most probably a one megaton warhead with a yield of one million tons of TNT-50 times more powerful than the nuclear warhead smuggled into Washington, DC.) The terrorists detonated the warhead. What follows is a graphic description of the property damage and loss of life. Most troubling is that 6 months after the detonation, the best scientific minds in the US cannot figure out where the nuclear weapon came from. They do not know who to retaliate against. Please keep this strongly in mind. It could be the outcome here.
Now, please follow me as I do some careful detective work to figure out what happened. The first suspect who comes to mind is North Korea. I certainly do not have access to any classified documents or military secrets. I do have two superb military advisors who do deep and careful research. One of these is the Binkovs. They do not believe that North Korea has a ballistic missile with the range to hit Chicago. They also say that North Korea does not have a reentry vehicle capable of bringing a long-range warhead through Earth’s atmosphere. Any North Korean nuclear attack would consist of “lobbing” nuclear warheads at South Korea or, perhaps, Japan.
One key satellite was out of operation, so the US could not precisely pinpoint where the missile was launched. Its sudden appearance “out of nowhere” leads me to believe that it was a submarine-launched ballistic missile. Several countries have a submarine-launched ballistic missile with the range to hit Chicago from the Pacific as follows:
China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States possess submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) capable of delivering a nuclear warhead from launch positions in the Pacific Ocean to Chicago. These missiles have ranges exceeding 7,000 km, sufficient for distances of approximately 3,700 km (from off the U.S. West Coast) to 7,900 km (from mid-Pacific), while carrying nuclear payloads.
Country
SLBM
Range (km)
Status
China
JL-2
7,000+
Operational
China
JL-3
9,000+
Operational
France
M51.2
8,000+
Operational
Russia
RSM-54 Sineva
8,300
Operational
Russia
RSM-56 Bulava
8,300
Operational
United Kingdom
Trident II D5
7,400–12,000
Operational
United States
Trident II D5
7,400–12,000
Operational
Let us eliminate the US, UK, and France from the list of possible suspects. What remains are Russia and China. Let us look at what types of nuclear warheads their submarines carry:
Warhead Yields for Specified SLBMs
Warhead yields for submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) are often classified or estimated, with variations based on single warhead vs. multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) configurations. The data below draws from open-source analyses as of late 2024–early 2025. Yields are typically in kilotons (kt) or megatons (Mt) of TNT equivalent.
Missile
Country
Primary Configuration
Yield Details
Sources
JL-2
China
Single warhead
Up to 1 Mt
JL-2
China
MIRV (3–8 warheads)
90–150 kt each (e.g., 3–4 × 90 kt)
JL-3
China
Single warhead
250–1,000 kt
JL-3
China
MIRV (likely 3–8 warheads)
Lower yields (e.g., 90–150 kt each, similar to JL-2)
We very well could have a one-megaton warhead heading for Chicago. What would happen if a one megaton nuclear warhead hit Chicago?
Immediate Effects of a 1 Megaton Airburst Nuclear Detonation Over Chicago
A 1 megaton (Mt) nuclear warhead is equivalent to 1 million tons of TNT—about 67 times the yield of the Hiroshima bomb. Assuming an optimal airburst detonation (typically at 1-2 km altitude to maximize blast and thermal effects while minimizing fallout) centered on downtown Chicago (e.g., coordinates 41.8781° N, 87.6298° W, near the Loop), the explosion would unleash a cascade of destructive forces. These include a massive fireball, shockwave, intense heat, radiation, and electromagnetic pulse (EMP). Chicago's dense urban population (over 2.7 million in the city proper, plus suburbs) and high-rise structures would amplify the devastation, leading to unprecedented casualties and infrastructure collapse.
The effects diminish with distance but would still impact surrounding areas like Evanston, Oak Park, and even parts of Indiana across Lake Michigan. Simulations from tools like NUKEMAP and nuclear blast calculators provide the following estimates, based on declassified data from sources like The Effects of Nuclear Weapons by Glasstone and Dolan.
1. Fireball and Vaporization
Description: The initial fireball would reach temperatures of 100 million °C, vaporizing everything within it instantly. This includes people, buildings, vehicles, and the ground below.
Radius: Approximately 0.5–1 km (0.3–0.6 miles) from ground zero.
Impact: Total annihilation; no survivors. In Chicago, this would engulf landmarks like the Willis Tower and Millennium Park, creating a crater-like scar if any surface contact occurs.
2. Blast Wave (Air Pressure Shock)
The blast wave travels at supersonic speeds, destroying structures via overpressure (psi = pounds per square inch). It would level much of the city center, hurl debris, and cause widespread structural failures.
Damage Level
Overpressure
Radius from Ground Zero
Effects in the Chicago Context
Severe (Heavy Damage)
5 psi
~6.4 km (4 miles)
Most buildings collapse; concrete skyscrapers are heavily damaged or toppled; underground infrastructure (e.g., L trains, sewers) is ruptured. Fatalities: ~50%; Injuries: ~90%. Covers the Loop to Lincoln Park.
Moderate
1–2 psi
~16 km (10 miles)
Residential and commercial buildings are severely damaged (walls collapse, roofs cave); factories and bridges fail; vehicles are overturned. Fatalities: ~5%; Injuries: ~50%. Extends to suburbs like Evanston and Cicero.
Light
0.25–0.5 psi
~24–32 km (15–20 miles)
Windows shatter citywide; light-frame houses damaged; minor injuries from flying glass. Fatalities: <1%; Injuries: ~25%. Reaches O'Hare Airport and Gary, IN.
The blast would arrive in seconds, with winds exceeding 1,000 km/h (620 mph) near the epicenter, transitioning to hurricane-force gusts farther out.
3. Thermal Radiation (Heat Flash)
Description: A brief (seconds-long) pulse of infrared and visible light, igniting fires and causing flash burns. It would start massive firestorms from ruptured gas lines, electrical shorts, and flammable materials.
Radius: Third-degree burns (skin charring, lethal without treatment) up to ~32 km (20 miles); first-degree burns (blisters) to ~40 km (25 miles).
Impact: Exposed skin ignites; dark clothing or surfaces absorb heat, exacerbating fires. In Chicago, this could engulf 500+ km² in flames, creating a firestorm drawing in oxygen and producing hurricane-force winds. Historical analogs (e.g., Hiroshima) show firestorms killing tens of thousands via asphyxiation and burns.
4. Ionizing Radiation (Prompt and Fallout)
Prompt Radiation: Gamma rays and neutrons emitted in the first minute.
Lethal Radius: ~2–3 km (1.2–1.9 miles) for 500 rem dose (50% fatality within 30 days without treatment).
Impact: Immediate sickness or death; survivors suffer acute radiation syndrome (nausea, organ failure).
Fallout: Minimal for airburst (most radioactive material lofted high and dispersed globally), but some local contamination from ground debris. Winds could carry eastward over Lake Michigan, affecting downwind areas like Milwaukee with elevated radiation for days to weeks.
5. Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP)
Description: A high-altitude burst (if detonated higher) generates an EMP disrupting electronics over hundreds of km; a low airburst affects ~10–20 km radius.
Impact: Blackouts across the Midwest; failure of power grids, communications, vehicles, and hospitals. Chicago's grid would collapse, hindering rescue efforts.
Estimated Casualties
Based on NUKEMAP simulations for a 1 Mt airburst over Chicago:
Fatalities: Approximately 1.99 million (immediate from blast/heat; additional from fires and radiation).
Injuries: Approximately 2.54 million (burns, trauma, radiation sickness). These figures account for daytime population density (~9 million in the metro area) and assume no sheltering. Hospitals would be obliterated or overwhelmed, with survivors facing triage horrors.
Immediate Aftermath (First Hours to Days)
Fires and Chaos: A firestorm could burn for days, consuming wood-frame suburbs and high-rises. Smoke would blanket the region, reducing visibility and air quality.
Infrastructure Collapse: O'Hare and Midway airports destroyed; rail and road networks severed; water/sewage systems ruptured, leading to contamination.
Humanitarian Crisis: Millions fleeing; emergency services nonexistent in the core. Radiation and debris would contaminate rescue paths.
Environmental: Lake Michigan is contaminated; wildlife and ecosystems are devastated.
Long-Term Consequences (Weeks to Years)
Health: Radiation sickness kills thousands more; increased cancer rates for decades. Burn victims strain global medical resources.
Economic: Chicago's role as a financial/transport hub (3rd-largest U.S. metro economy) halts; national GDP drops 5–10%; rebuilding costs trillions.
Social/Psychological: Mass displacement (millions homeless); societal breakdown; global shockwaves, potentially escalating conflicts.
Recovery: Decades-long; Hiroshima (15 kt) took years to rebuild—scale this by 67x.
This scenario underscores nuclear weapons' indiscriminate horror. Real outcomes vary by exact yield, burst height, weather, and response. For interactive visualization, tools like NUKEMAP offer personalized simulations.
What catches my attention is a scenario where there was a mutiny on one of the boomers or submarines, each carrying 16 ballistic missiles. One missile was launched before control was restored on the submarine. We have seen all sorts of instability recently in the People’s Liberation Army, with 16 senior generals being fired. There is constant instability in the Russian military ranks. It is not implausible to believe that a mutiny could take place on one of these ballistic missile submarines.
If Russia or China were confronted about this, they would claim that it was a tragic event not ordered by their governments. There would be no basis to have a full-scale nuclear retaliation destroying most of the world under these circumstances. If Chairman Xi were shown irrefutable proof that one of his missiles did the damage, he would eventually take responsibility and start paying damages in the trillions of dollars. If President Putin were shown the same evidence, he would deny it until the day he died. In the darkest depths of my mind, I would suspect that Putin would fabricate a mutiny like this to ”get even” with the US over his failures in Ukraine.
Let us go back to Melbourne, Australia, in 1967. A resourceful prison inmate got a gun smuggled to him. He staged an escape attempt. There was a shootout between him and the prison guards. One prison officer was killed. The prison inmate was charged with murder, found guilty, and after he exhausted his appeals, he was hanged in Pentridge Prison. One medical examiner was not comfortable with what had happened. He took another look at the bullet that killed the prison officer and did ballistics. The bullet had not come from the inmate’s gun. It had come from another prison officer’s gun. An innocent man had been hanged. The medical examiner did not hide his findings. He publicly announced them. What followed was a firestorm of rage and moral indignation throughout Australia. There never was another hanging in Australia. Eventually, all Australian states abolished capital punishment.
If the scenario with Chicago ever took place, there would be a firestorm of rage and moral indignation worldwide. Nuclear weapons would be abolished.
Thursday, October 23, 2025
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Notorious Cyber Scam Hub Linked To Chinese Mafia Raided In Myanmar!
Notorious cyber scam hub linked to Chinese mafia raided
1 day ago
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Jonathan HeadSouth East Asia correspondent
Getty Images This aerial photo taken on September 17, 2025 shows the KK Park complex in Myanmar's eastern Myawaddy township, as pictured from Mae Sot district in Thailand's border province of Tak. Getty Images
KK Park is one of several scam compounds along the Thai-Myanmar border
The Myanmar military says it has captured one of the most notorious scam compounds on the border with Thailand, as it reclaims key territory it lost in the ongoing civil war.
KK Park, south of the border town of Myawaddy, has been synonymous with online fraud, money laundering and human trafficking for the past five years.
Thousands of people were lured to the compound with the promise of well-paid jobs, and then forced to run elaborate scams, stealing billions of dollars from victims all over the world.
The military, long tainted by its links to the scam business, now says it has taken the complex as it expands control around Myawaddy, the main trade link to Thailand.
In recent weeks the military, or junta, has pushed back insurgents in several parts of Myanmar, aiming to maximise the number of places where it can hold a planned election, starting in December.
It still doesn't control large swathes of the country, which has been torn apart by conflict since a military coup in February 2021. The election has been dismissed as a sham by opposition forces who have vowed to block it in areas they hold.
KK Park began with a lease agreement in early 2020 to build an industrial park between the Karen National Union (KNU), the ethnic insurgent group which controls much of this region, and a little-known Hong Kong listed company, Huanya International.
Researchers believe there are links between Huanya and a prominent Chinese underworld figure Wan Kuok Koi, better known as Broken Tooth, who has since invested in other scam centres on the border.
The complex expanded rapidly, and is easily visible from the Thai side of the border.
Those who managed to escape from it describe a brutal regime imposed on the thousands of people, many from African countries, who were held there, forced to work long hours, with torture and beatings inflicted on those who failed to meet targets.
Getty Images This photo taken on September 17, 2025 shows what appears to be a Starlink satellite dish on the roof of a building at the KK Park complex in Myanmar's eastern Myawaddy township, as pictured from Mae Sot district in Thailand's border province of Tak.Getty Images
A Starlink satellite dish on the roof of a building at the KK Park complex
A statement by the junta's information ministry said its forces had "cleared" KK Park, releasing more than 2,000 workers there and confiscating 30 of Elon Musk's Starlink satellite terminals – widely used by scam centres on the Thai-Myanmar border for online activities.
The statement blamed what it called the "terrorist" Karen National Union and volunteer people's defence forces, which have been fighting the junta since the coup, for illegally occupying the area.
The junta's claim to have shut down this infamous scam centre is almost certainly directed at its main patron, China. Beijing has been pressing the junta and the Thai government to do more to end the illegal businesses run by Chinese syndicates on their border.
Earlier this year thousands of Chinese workers were taken out of scam compounds and flown on chartered planes back to China, after Thailand cut access to power and fuel supplies.
But KK Park is only one of at least 30 similar compounds located on the border. Most of these are under the protection of Karen militia groups allied to the junta, and most are still operating, with tens of thousands of people running scams inside them.
In fact, the support of these militia groups has been crucial in helping the military drive back the KNU and other resistance groups from territory they captured over the past two years.
The military now controls nearly all of the road linking Myawaddy to the rest of Myanmar, a goal the junta set itself before it holds the first stage of the election in December.
It has taken Lay Kay Kaw, a new town established for the KNU with Japanese funding in 2015, a time when there had been hopes for lasting peace in Karen State following a national ceasefire.
That is a more significant blow to the KNU than the takeover of KK Park, from which it did get some revenue, but where most of the financial benefits went to pro-junta militias.
A well-placed source has told the BBC that scam work is continuing in KK Park, and that it is likely the military took control of only part of the sprawling complex.
The source also believes Beijing is giving the Myanmar military lists of Chinese individuals it wants taken from the scam compounds, and sent back to face trial in China, which may explain why KK Park was attacked.
Read more about Myanmar's scam compounds
'I need help': Freed from Myanmar's scam centres, thousands are now stranded
Casinos, high-rises and fraud: The BBC visits a bizarre city built on scams
The Chinese mafia's downfall in a lawless casino town
Monday, October 20, 2025
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Wednesday, October 15, 2025
The US Government Just Seized A Record $15 Billion From A Sprawling Cyber-Fraud Empire
The US government just seized a record $15 billion of bitcoin from a 'sprawling cyber-fraud empire'
By Max Adams, Updated 06:42 PM PDT, Tue October 14, 2025
Markets Insider
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YASIN AKGUL/AFP via Getty Images
The Justice Department on Tuesday said it seized $15 billion worth of bitcoin.
It charged a man named Chen Zhi with wire fraud and money laundering.
The forfeiture action against the pig butchering operation is the largest ever reported by the department.
The US Department of Justice announced a record haul of bitcoin on Tuesday.
The department charged a man named Chen Zhi in the Eastern District of New York, stating that it seized 127,271 bitcoin worth about $15 billion. According to a statement, it's the largest forfeiture action in the department's history.
The charges include money laundering and wire fraud and are tied to a "pig butchering" scheme in Cambodia.
"Individuals held against their will in the compounds engaged in cryptocurrency investment fraud schemes, known as 'pig butchering' scams, that stole billions of dollars from victims in the United States and around the world," the department said, adding that Zhi had not been apprehended.
The statement added that Zhi had held the bitcoin in unhosted crypto wallets that he personally held the keys to, and he and others used funds for "luxury travel and entertainment and to make extravagant purchases such as watches, yachts, private jets, vacation homes, high-end collectables, and rare artwork, including a Picasso painting purchased through an auction house in New York City."
Pig butchering schemes are a particular type of fraud in which a criminal builds a rapport with the victim, getting them to send cash or crypto before disappearing with their money. A study last year said pig butchering scams had netted $75 billion for criminals.
"As alleged, the defendant was the mastermind behind a sprawling cyber-fraud empire operating under the Prince Group umbrella, a criminal enterprise built on human suffering. Trafficked workers were confined in prison-like compounds and forced to carry out online scams on an industrial scale," the department said.
Crypto crime has been on the rise broadly as the market has exploded in value, and AI has been a boon for scammers. A study from Chainalysis said that AI tools boosted revenue from crypto scams to record levels last year, with many criminals utilizing AI to create fake identities and evade verification controls.
Read the original article on Business Insider
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What Would Happen If Russia Attacked Ukraine With A Tactical Nuclear Weapon?
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Truth About Russia ·
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Geoffrey Sea
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If Russia were to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, how would the West react?
Here’s what would happen: There would be no western military unconventional response. The fallout cloud would be tracked as it moves over Russia, perhaps creating as many Russian casualties as Ukrainian. World media would broadcast the extraordinary amount of human suffering while all countries around the world would offer humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Russia would receive no such aid, making the catastrophe in Russia much worse.
Putin would likely be immediately shot by one of his generals. Meanwhile, Russian generals and ministers would beg their US counterparts to not respond. It would be admitted that the attack had been a mistake, and Putin’s assassination would be advertised.
NATO would take certain conventional measures. Kaliningrad would be surrounded with NATO forces and put under siege, leading to the rapid depletion of food supplies there, and in Transnistria. Demands for Russian surrender in Kaliningrad, Transnistria, Crimea, Donetsk, and Abkhazia would be issued and would likely be adhered to.
Meanwhile the NATO governments would draw up surrender terms for the Russian government. These terms would include: 1. Immediate withdrawal of all Russian occupation forces and Russian nationals from all of Ukraine as well as from Kaliningrad, Moldova, and Georgia. 2. Immediate surrender of all those involved in the nuclear decision to a war crimes tribunal at the Hague, along with all accused of war crimes in Ukraine, 3. An immediate vow of the new Russian government to eliminate its entire nuclear arsenal under international supervision. 4. Russia-wide national elections entirely under international administration. 5. Support for the independence of any Russian region that asserts it.
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Thursday, September 25, 2025
Iran's Mass Killing Campaign Sees Chilling Numbers Of Daily Executions
Iran's mass killing campaign' sees chilling number of daily executions
By Laura ZilincanovaEleanor Lees,
1 days ago
Iran has conducted its highest number of executions in over three decades, putting to death at least 1,000 individuals during the past nine months. The "mass killing campaign" of hangings took place between January and September, according to the Norway-based Iran Human Rights organization (IHR).
This figure already exceeds the 975 killings recorded in 2024 and represents the highest total since the group began maintaining records 17 years ago.
The activists reported that at least 64 executions occurred just last week - averaging more than nine hangings per day. It comes as news emerged that Iranian diplomats are banned from Costco unless they get permission from the Trump administration.
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READ MORE:Iranian diplomats banned from Costco unless they get permission from Trump administration
Due to the lack of transparency and reporting restrictions, the actual number is believed to be significantly higher.
IHR director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam stated: "In recent months the Islamic Republic has begun a mass killing campaign in Iran's prisons, the dimensions of which, in the absence of serious international reactions, are expanding every day.
"The widespread, arbitrary executions of prisoners without due process and fair trial rights amount to crimes against humanity and must be placed at the top of the international community's agenda regarding the Islamic Republic.
"Any dialogue between countries committed to the foundations of human rights and the Islamic Republic that does not include the execution crisis in Iran is unacceptable."
After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran previously carried out widespread executions during the 1980s and early 1990s.
Nevertheless, IHR maintains the nation has escalated its use of capital punishment since its 12-day conflict with Israel. "We will definitely deal decisively and legally with spies, but it should be noted that identifying them is not easy and requires intelligence techniques," Iran's judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Eje'i stated just hours after a man accused of spying for Israel was executed.
He further revealed that several individuals have been arrested and punished following trials for collaborating with what he referred to as "the Zionist regime".
The majority of the executions were for drug-related offenses, which do not meet the international human rights law's criteria for "most serious crimes", such as genocide or crimes against humanity.
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Most of these executions are carried out by hanging within prison facilities, though some public hangings still take place.
In 2024, four individuals were publicly hanged.
Only 11% of the 1000 executions were officially announced. None of the drug-related executions have been officially announced, according to IHR.
As per Amnesty International and other human rights organizations, Iran ranks second in the world for the most executions, trailing only China.
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Monday, September 22, 2025
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Saturday, September 20, 2025
Missing Artwork Looted By The Nazis Could Be Worth Billions-But Who Owns It When It's Found?
Missing art looted by the Nazis could be worth billions – but who owns it when it’s found?
By Guy Walters,
2 days ago
Prosecutor Daniel Adler in front of Giuseppe Ghislandi’s 18th-century painting ‘Portrait of a Lady’, reportedly stolen by a Nazi officer during World War Two, in Mar del Plata, Argentina AP
It began, absurdly enough, with an estate agent’s photograph.
A grainy picture of a living room in a bungalow in Argentina, snapped for a property listing, showed a gilt frame above a sofa. An eagle-eyed researcher recognised the work as Portrait of a Lady, an Italian portrait once in the collection of a Jewish Dutch art dealer called Jacques Goudstikker – a name synonymous with the wholesale dispossession by the Nazis of Jewish collectors in the Netherlands in 1940. Argentinian prosecutors, alerted by the sighting, swept in; the painting was recovered and handed to the courts. The family of the original owner is among those now pressing for restitution. It is a remarkable, if familiar, story: what was taken in wartime surfaces decades later in the most mundane of places.
That fluke also re-focuses a question historians and lawyers have been arguing over for three generations: how much of the art looted by the Nazis is still missing, and what is it worth? The blunt answer is: we don’t know – and whatever number you pick, it will be both terrifyingly large and maddeningly imprecise.
Estimates vary. A commonly cited figure is that between 1933 and 1945, some 600,000–650,000 works were seized or sold under duress across Europe. Many were small domestic objects – china, silver, family heirlooms – but the haul also included thousands of paintings, prints and sculptures taken from private Jewish collections, museums and synagogues. Only a fraction has been returned.
Put a monetary figure on that and the problem becomes even more slippery.
Single masterpieces can command sums that make the head spin: Gustav Klimt’s Portrait of Adele Bloch-Bauer I was famously returned to Maria Altmann and later sold to Ronald Lauder for tens of millions; Egon Schiele’s Portrait of Wally resulted in a $19m (£13.9m) settlement after protracted litigation in New York. At the other end of the scale lies The Amber Room – the enormous, amber-panelled interior looted from Catherine Palace in 1941 – whose modern valuations have oscillated, in different hands, from many tens of millions into the hundreds of millions.
All of which underlines the point: a handful of works could be worth hundreds of millions on their own; the total value of what is missing could comfortably sit in the billions.
And yet the headline numbers sometimes mislead. When Cornelius Gurlitt – the reclusive son of Hitler’s art dealer Hildebrand Gurlitt – was exposed in 2012, newspapers lectured that a billion-euro bonanza had been found in a Munich flat. That trove, extraordinary as it was, contained hundreds of works, only a minority of which could be proven to be looted. The public outcry that followed taught a salutary lesson: provenance matters, and establishing theft or forced sale almost eight decades after the event is painstaking work.
Which brings us to the core of the modern system for deciding ownership when an object is rediscovered. There is no single global court of restitution. Instead, the architecture is a tangle of moral principles, national procedures and ad-hoc settlements. The Washington Conference Principles of 1998 and the TerezÃn (Theresienstadt) Declaration of 2009 set the international tone: identify, research and, where appropriate, find “just and fair” solutions for Holocaust-era confiscations. They are not legally binding – they are moral-political instruments intended to nudge museums, governments and dealers into transparency.
How that principle works on the ground varies from place to place. In the UK, the Spoliation Advisory Panel examines claims concerning works in national collections and recommends remedies – which have ranged from outright restitution to monetary compensation to long-term loans. In Germany, there is an advisory commission and a now-more-sophisticated provenance infrastructure (the Lost Art Database and the German Lost Art Foundation) to help identify suspect pieces and broker solutions. Private restitution is often litigated, sometimes mediated: the Portrait of Wally case was litigated under US forfeiture law; the Klimt case made its way to the US Supreme Court before being resolved in arbitration and settlement.
US soldiers carry some of the priceless collection of stolen paintings discovered hidden in Neuschwanstein Castle in Bavaria, in May 1945 (Getty)
That framework performs the work of history in public: provenance research, legal argument and, crucially, negotiation. Institutions frequently point to gaps in the archives, to ambiguities of ownership during a chaotic era, and to good-faith purchases made in the decades after the war. Claimants point to forced sales, deportation, murder and the simple fact that families were stripped of their property. The result is rarely neat justice; it is brokerage. And sometimes, despite all the declarations and commissions, justice is delayed or denied – as heirs continue to battle over works held in state galleries or private hands. Recent cases show that even when the provenance is strong, bureaucratic and legal obstacles can delay restitution for years.
Who does the finding? A mixed cast: dedicated researchers in national archives and museums; NGOs like the Commission for Looted Art in Europe; databases and private companies such as the Art Loss Register; independent sleuths – often glorified as “art detectives” – who comb auction catalogues and anonymous photographs; prosecutors and customs officers who act on tips; and, increasingly, the public. The Argentinian discovery was classical amateur detection turned civic action: someone saw a picture online, recognised it, and the wheels of justice started turning.
My forthcoming TV series for the History Channel, The Last Hunt for Nazi Gold, has taken me across Europe this August on much the same hunt. I followed leads in Germany for the collection of Baron Ferenc Hatvany, the Hungarian connoisseur whose works were dispersed in the chaos of 1944–45 and are still turning up in vaults and galleries. I hauled myself to Lake Toplitz in Austria, where generations of divers have dreamed of sunken Nazi caches; I chased rumours about The Amber Room and the circuitous trail of crates and reports that might, just might, lead to it. I met many treasure hunters, some of whom are sane, some of whom are, shall we say, “out there”. All are obsessional.
Practical obstacles for art and treasure hunters abound. Many institutions acquired works in the postwar years when provenance was either not investigated or was obscured by paperwork. Records have been lost or deliberately destroyed. Some treasures were trafficked across borders – sometimes with the complicity of local officials – and have migrated into private collections where discoverability is slim. Even when a looted work reappears, legal systems differ: statutes of limitation, evidential burdens and compensation models are not uniform. The Washington Principles and national panels attempt to smooth these differences, but they cannot legislate away messy human history.
Visual arts teacher Ariel Bassano speaks in front of the recovered painting believed to be ‘Portrait of a Lady’ by Giuseppe Ghislandi, in Mar del Plata, Argentina, on 3 September (AFP/Getty)
Yet there is reason for cautious optimism. Provenance research is no longer niche; whole departments and databases are devoted to it. International cooperation has improved, and high-profile successes demonstrate that recovery and redress are possible, even decades on. The public now helps; internet catalogues, digitised archives and social media mean that a painting can be traced from a living room in Argentina to a Jewish dealer’s Prague ledgerbook in a matter of days.
What I took away from my time on the road was neither grand optimism nor despair, but the stubborn persistence of memory. Looting was a crime against people as well as property; for heirs, a returned frame can be a fragment of family restored. For historians, each recovered object rewrites a small part of the past. The lesson is blunt: the past does not only live in museums. Sometimes it hangs over a sofa in an ordinary house, waiting for someone to notice.
If the Argentinian estate agent photograph teaches us anything, it is that the search continues and that recovery is – at least occasionally – a matter of exposure and will. The moral architecture we have built since 1998 gives us routes for redress, and institutions are increasingly obliged to look under the carpets of their collections. But the scale of what was taken means that, long after our generation, there will still be searches, claims and occasional triumphs. And that, if nothing else, is a measure of the damage the Nazis inflicted – a theft that has echoed for 80 years and shows no sign of going quietly into the past.
The 10 Most Famous Still-Missing WWII Looted Artworks
Vincent Van Gogh is among the artists whose work has gone missing (Vincent van Gogh Foundation)
1. Raphael, Portrait of a Young Man
Believed to be a self-portrait, it vanished from the Czartoryski Museum in Kraków, Poland, during the Second World War. Widely regarded as the most famous missing piece, its whereabouts is still unknown.
2. Andreas Schlüter, The Amber Room (18th century)
This spectacular amber-panelled chamber, once dubbed the “Eighth Wonder of the World”, was looted from Russia to Königsberg in 1941 and has never been recovered.
3. Van Gogh, The Painter on the Road to Tarascon (1888)
Last seen in Magdeburg, it reportedly was lost in a fire after Allied bombing destroyed the salt mine where it was stored.
4. Johannes Bellini, Madonna with Child (c.1430)
Reportedly housed in a flak tower in Berlin during the war; presumed destroyed or still lost.
5. Gustav Klimt, Portrait of Trude Steiner (1900)
A portrait taken from collector Jenny Steiner in 1938; it never resurfaced.
6. Rembrandt, An Angel with Titus’ Features
Looted in 1943 and intended for Hitler’s “Führermuseum” – still missing.
7. Peter Paul Rubens, The Annunciation
Disappeared after a forced auction.
8. Canaletto, Piazza Santa Margherita
Once part of Goudstikker’s collection, its location remains unknown.
9. Degas, Five Dancing Women (Ballerinas)
Part of Baron Mór Lipót Herzog’s collection; missing in the postwar dispersal.
10. Pissarro, Boulevard Montmartre, Twilight (1897)
Though sporadically sighted over the years, it has never been traced to a stable location.
With thanks to War History Online
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