Explosion at Iran Missile Base: Accident or Sabotage?
November 15, 2011 | 0221 GMT
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Mourners carry the coffin of Iranian Maj. Gen. Hassan Moqaddam in Tehran on Nov. 14
Summary
An explosion at a ballistic missile base near Tehran killed 17 people on Nov. 12. Among the victims was Brig. Gen. Hassan Moghaddam, reportedly the architect of the Iranian surface-to-surface missile program and the developer of the Shahab-3 medium range ballistic missile. While the significance of the base and the timing of the explosion suggest a possible act of sabotage, there are numerous ways an accidental explosion could have taken place.
Analysis
An early afternoon explosion at a ballistic missile base near Tehran killed 17 people on Nov. 12. According to statements issued by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), one of the victims was IRGC Brig. Gen. Hassan Moghaddam, reportedly the architect of the Iranian surface-to-surface missile (SSM) program and the developer of the Shahab-3 medium range ballistic missile (MRBM). According to the Iranians, the explosion at the base resulted from an accident while troops were transferring munitions.
The IRGC reported the explosion as having occurred at a base in Bidganeh, near the town of Shahriar, some 45 kilometers (28 miles) west of Tehran. This points directly to the location of a ballistic missile base where the 5th Raad missile brigade, which operates Shahab-3 MRBMs, is reportedly stationed. This is almost certainly the general location of the explosion site. This base is part of an extensive Iranian SSM network, which also features major bases in Esfahan, Kermanshah, Mashad, Khosro Sahr, and Tabriz. The ballistic missile base in Bidganeh appears to contain a large missile storage complex, as well as numerous launch pads that are clearly visible by satellite. There have also been unconfirmed reports from Mujahideen-e-Khalq that further development of the Shahab missile is taking place in the base.
There are numerous possible explanations for an accidental explosion at the base — from mishandling of different types of munitions to perhaps an accident during the refueling of one of the volatile liquid-fueled missiles. The explosion could have occurred during preparations for a launch of a ballistic missile. It could also have resulted from a failed missile test launch — one meant either as a routine certification test or as a developmental experiment.
The IRGC has often fired ballistic missiles during tests or war games. The Shahab-3 MRBM, for instance, was tested numerous times before it entered operational service in 2003. Though the Shahab-3 failed a number of its initial missile tests (for instance in 1998, 2000, and 2002), the missile has passed a number of tests without incident since its introduction into service. Initial problems seem to have been ironed out and newer variants are known to be in development.
Given the size of the Iranian SSM network and the apparent lack of command facilities at the missile base, the presence of a reputed figure such as Moghaddam in the base is not routine. This increases the likelihood that special activity was taking place at the missile base — possibly another routine missile test, and perhaps even the testing of a new ballistic missile. Testing new types of ballistic missiles is dangerous. Numerous instances of failed missile launches have caused significant casualties, most notably the Oct. 24, 1960 death of Soviet Marshal of Artillery Mitrofan Nedelin during a failed test of the newly introduced R-16 ballistic missile. It is not inconceivable that Moghaddam died during a similar missile test mishap.
With increased tensions in the region as Iran works toward developing more advanced weapons, it is also possible that clandestine operations to sabotage the base are ongoing. Two unconfirmed explosions, kilometers apart, could indicate sabotage. Indeed, it is evident that a campaign of subterfuge,espionage, sabotage and assassination has targeted Iran’s weapons programs since at least 2007. Since 2010, the campaign against Iran’s nuclear and SSM network has intensified, recently including scientist assassinations and publicly known use of the Stuxnet worm.
Given the possible blowback from and disadvantages of a conventional strike against the Iranian nuclear and SSM network, the intelligence services of Israel, the United States or other allies may have elected to rely primarily on clandestine, plausibly deniable warfare. The latest explosion could be another example of such a campaign — though it is not clear, in this case, whether the attempt would have been directed at sabotaging Iran’s missile program, would have been meant as an assassination attempt targeting scientists, or would have explicitly targeted Moghaddam. Though the base is significant and the timing of the explosion highly suggestive of an act of sabotage, it is as yet unclear whether the latter is what occurred. While the explosions occurred in a particularly tense geopolitical environment in which covert action is a common tactic for both sides, an accident cannot be ruled out.
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