Sunday, September 22, 2024
The Reality Is Kamala Is Further Ahead Than People Realize
I make it a point on this platform not to discuss politics or to advocate for any political candidate anywhere. I am here to give you a great newspaper daily. I am here to inform, you, entertain you, and get your day off to a good start regardless of where you are. It is 44 days until the presidential election here in the US. I have found out some fascinating and obscure facts. I have learned not to trust polls for various elections. I have found two very admired college professors with "no political axe to grind" They predict the winner of the presidential election correctly every 4 years.
You have heard me talk about Professor Allan Lichtman of American University in Washington, D.C. He has a PhD in history. He got a second PhD in predictive statistics from the California Institute of Technology. He developed the "Thirteen Keys To The White House." He has called the winner of presidential elections right for 44 years. This year he predicted that Kamila Harris would win.
None of us has previously heard of Dr. Thomas Miller who is director of the data science program at Northwestern University in Chicago. Please allow me to introduce him:
Faculty: MS in Data Science Program
Thomas W. Miller
Faculty Director
Contact Information
thomas-miller-0@northwestern.edu
Data Science Quarterly
LinkedIn
Twitter
Tom Miller is faculty director of the data science program at Northwestern University. He started with the program when it was called predictive analytics and for the past ten years has been responsible for growing the curriculum, introducing specializations, and designing numerous distance learning courses. Miller is the author of six textbooks about data science published by Pearson Education. He also owns Research Publishers LLC, a California company that, in addition to publishing books and periodicals, provides research and consulting, measurement services, event forecasting, and natural language processing solutions. Miller is known for his accurate election forecasts under The Virtual Tout® (@virtualtout). And he is editor-in-chief of Data Science Quarterly, promoting data science as a discipline and showing its relevance to social and political discourse.
Dr. Miller joins Professor Allan Lichtman in an exclusive club. He has never made a bad prediction on who would win a presidential election. He uses a radically different approach. He focuses on bookmakers around the world who take bets on who is going to win the U.S. presidential election. This is done in real-time and uses a massive amount of computer time. He has predicted that we will see a landslide win for Kamala. He says that she will win 449 electoral votes.
I have this penchant for finding very obscure facts. There is an organization called Save Democracy Write Post Cards (www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/). This organization is very low technology and from another age. They enlist many volunteers. Each volunteer gets a box of postcards and a list of voters. These volunteers must manually put an address and a stamp on each postcard and sign it. These cards are sent to swing states to get voters out to vote for Democratic Party candidates. For every 100 cards mailed out, 4 more voters turn out to vote. As of September 21, 2024, they had mailed out their entire 2024 production of 36,000,000 postcards to volunteers who are working hard to get these cards to potential voters in the swing states. If the statistics continue to be accurate, this effort will create up to 1,440,000 additional voters.
Give thanks to your higher power for your good fortune in life.
-JackW
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