The Movie "A House Of Dynamite"-New Perspectives

“A House of Dynamite” is one of those rare films that makes one exclaim: “Oh my God, that is what it is really like!” Sadly, Kathryn Bigelow had only one hour and fifty-five minutes to tell you a story that should have taken four hours to tell. Please allow me to “fill in the blanks.” What we have here is a nuclear terrorism event on a grand scale. Some years ago, President Bush 2’s expert on nuclear terrorism wrote a short novel in documentary form titled. “The Right of Boom.” In the book, an unnamed terrorist group smuggles in a 20-kiloton Hiroshima-style nuclear warhead into Washington, DC. Please bear in mind that the nuclear warhead heading for Chicago in the film is most probably a one megaton warhead with a yield of one million tons of TNT-50 times more powerful than the nuclear warhead smuggled into Washington, DC.) The terrorists detonated the warhead. What follows is a graphic description of the property damage and loss of life. Most troubling is that 6 months after the detonation, the best scientific minds in the US cannot figure out where the nuclear weapon came from. They do not know who to retaliate against. Please keep this strongly in mind. It could be the outcome here. Now, please follow me as I do some careful detective work to figure out what happened. The first suspect who comes to mind is North Korea. I certainly do not have access to any classified documents or military secrets. I do have two superb military advisors who do deep and careful research. One of these is the Binkovs. They do not believe that North Korea has a ballistic missile with the range to hit Chicago. They also say that North Korea does not have a reentry vehicle capable of bringing a long-range warhead through Earth’s atmosphere. Any North Korean nuclear attack would consist of “lobbing” nuclear warheads at South Korea or, perhaps, Japan. One key satellite was out of operation, so the US could not precisely pinpoint where the missile was launched. Its sudden appearance “out of nowhere” leads me to believe that it was a submarine-launched ballistic missile. Several countries have a submarine-launched ballistic missile with the range to hit Chicago from the Pacific as follows: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States possess submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) capable of delivering a nuclear warhead from launch positions in the Pacific Ocean to Chicago. These missiles have ranges exceeding 7,000 km, sufficient for distances of approximately 3,700 km (from off the U.S. West Coast) to 7,900 km (from mid-Pacific), while carrying nuclear payloads. Country SLBM Range (km) Status China JL-2 7,000+ Operational China JL-3 9,000+ Operational France M51.2 8,000+ Operational Russia RSM-54 Sineva 8,300 Operational Russia RSM-56 Bulava 8,300 Operational United Kingdom Trident II D5 7,400–12,000 Operational United States Trident II D5 7,400–12,000 Operational Let us eliminate the US, UK, and France from the list of possible suspects. What remains are Russia and China. Let us look at what types of nuclear warheads their submarines carry: Warhead Yields for Specified SLBMs Warhead yields for submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) are often classified or estimated, with variations based on single warhead vs. multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) configurations. The data below draws from open-source analyses as of late 2024–early 2025. Yields are typically in kilotons (kt) or megatons (Mt) of TNT equivalent. Missile Country Primary Configuration Yield Details Sources JL-2 China Single warhead Up to 1 Mt JL-2 China MIRV (3–8 warheads) 90–150 kt each (e.g., 3–4 × 90 kt) JL-3 China Single warhead 250–1,000 kt JL-3 China MIRV (likely 3–8 warheads) Lower yields (e.g., 90–150 kt each, similar to JL-2) We very well could have a one-megaton warhead heading for Chicago. What would happen if a one megaton nuclear warhead hit Chicago? Immediate Effects of a 1 Megaton Airburst Nuclear Detonation Over Chicago A 1 megaton (Mt) nuclear warhead is equivalent to 1 million tons of TNT—about 67 times the yield of the Hiroshima bomb. Assuming an optimal airburst detonation (typically at 1-2 km altitude to maximize blast and thermal effects while minimizing fallout) centered on downtown Chicago (e.g., coordinates 41.8781° N, 87.6298° W, near the Loop), the explosion would unleash a cascade of destructive forces. These include a massive fireball, shockwave, intense heat, radiation, and electromagnetic pulse (EMP). Chicago's dense urban population (over 2.7 million in the city proper, plus suburbs) and high-rise structures would amplify the devastation, leading to unprecedented casualties and infrastructure collapse. The effects diminish with distance but would still impact surrounding areas like Evanston, Oak Park, and even parts of Indiana across Lake Michigan. Simulations from tools like NUKEMAP and nuclear blast calculators provide the following estimates, based on declassified data from sources like The Effects of Nuclear Weapons by Glasstone and Dolan. 1. Fireball and Vaporization Description: The initial fireball would reach temperatures of 100 million °C, vaporizing everything within it instantly. This includes people, buildings, vehicles, and the ground below. Radius: Approximately 0.5–1 km (0.3–0.6 miles) from ground zero. Impact: Total annihilation; no survivors. In Chicago, this would engulf landmarks like the Willis Tower and Millennium Park, creating a crater-like scar if any surface contact occurs. 2. Blast Wave (Air Pressure Shock) The blast wave travels at supersonic speeds, destroying structures via overpressure (psi = pounds per square inch). It would level much of the city center, hurl debris, and cause widespread structural failures. Damage Level Overpressure Radius from Ground Zero Effects in the Chicago Context Severe (Heavy Damage) 5 psi ~6.4 km (4 miles) Most buildings collapse; concrete skyscrapers are heavily damaged or toppled; underground infrastructure (e.g., L trains, sewers) is ruptured. Fatalities: ~50%; Injuries: ~90%. Covers the Loop to Lincoln Park. Moderate 1–2 psi ~16 km (10 miles) Residential and commercial buildings are severely damaged (walls collapse, roofs cave); factories and bridges fail; vehicles are overturned. Fatalities: ~5%; Injuries: ~50%. Extends to suburbs like Evanston and Cicero. Light 0.25–0.5 psi ~24–32 km (15–20 miles) Windows shatter citywide; light-frame houses damaged; minor injuries from flying glass. Fatalities: <1%; Injuries: ~25%. Reaches O'Hare Airport and Gary, IN. The blast would arrive in seconds, with winds exceeding 1,000 km/h (620 mph) near the epicenter, transitioning to hurricane-force gusts farther out. 3. Thermal Radiation (Heat Flash) Description: A brief (seconds-long) pulse of infrared and visible light, igniting fires and causing flash burns. It would start massive firestorms from ruptured gas lines, electrical shorts, and flammable materials. Radius: Third-degree burns (skin charring, lethal without treatment) up to ~32 km (20 miles); first-degree burns (blisters) to ~40 km (25 miles). Impact: Exposed skin ignites; dark clothing or surfaces absorb heat, exacerbating fires. In Chicago, this could engulf 500+ km² in flames, creating a firestorm drawing in oxygen and producing hurricane-force winds. Historical analogs (e.g., Hiroshima) show firestorms killing tens of thousands via asphyxiation and burns. 4. Ionizing Radiation (Prompt and Fallout) Prompt Radiation: Gamma rays and neutrons emitted in the first minute. Lethal Radius: ~2–3 km (1.2–1.9 miles) for 500 rem dose (50% fatality within 30 days without treatment). Impact: Immediate sickness or death; survivors suffer acute radiation syndrome (nausea, organ failure). Fallout: Minimal for airburst (most radioactive material lofted high and dispersed globally), but some local contamination from ground debris. Winds could carry eastward over Lake Michigan, affecting downwind areas like Milwaukee with elevated radiation for days to weeks. 5. Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Description: A high-altitude burst (if detonated higher) generates an EMP disrupting electronics over hundreds of km; a low airburst affects ~10–20 km radius. Impact: Blackouts across the Midwest; failure of power grids, communications, vehicles, and hospitals. Chicago's grid would collapse, hindering rescue efforts. Estimated Casualties Based on NUKEMAP simulations for a 1 Mt airburst over Chicago: Fatalities: Approximately 1.99 million (immediate from blast/heat; additional from fires and radiation). Injuries: Approximately 2.54 million (burns, trauma, radiation sickness). These figures account for daytime population density (~9 million in the metro area) and assume no sheltering. Hospitals would be obliterated or overwhelmed, with survivors facing triage horrors. Immediate Aftermath (First Hours to Days) Fires and Chaos: A firestorm could burn for days, consuming wood-frame suburbs and high-rises. Smoke would blanket the region, reducing visibility and air quality. Infrastructure Collapse: O'Hare and Midway airports destroyed; rail and road networks severed; water/sewage systems ruptured, leading to contamination. Humanitarian Crisis: Millions fleeing; emergency services nonexistent in the core. Radiation and debris would contaminate rescue paths. Environmental: Lake Michigan is contaminated; wildlife and ecosystems are devastated. Long-Term Consequences (Weeks to Years) Health: Radiation sickness kills thousands more; increased cancer rates for decades. Burn victims strain global medical resources. Economic: Chicago's role as a financial/transport hub (3rd-largest U.S. metro economy) halts; national GDP drops 5–10%; rebuilding costs trillions. Social/Psychological: Mass displacement (millions homeless); societal breakdown; global shockwaves, potentially escalating conflicts. Recovery: Decades-long; Hiroshima (15 kt) took years to rebuild—scale this by 67x. This scenario underscores nuclear weapons' indiscriminate horror. Real outcomes vary by exact yield, burst height, weather, and response. For interactive visualization, tools like NUKEMAP offer personalized simulations. What catches my attention is a scenario where there was a mutiny on one of the boomers or submarines, each carrying 16 ballistic missiles. One missile was launched before control was restored on the submarine. We have seen all sorts of instability recently in the People’s Liberation Army, with 16 senior generals being fired. There is constant instability in the Russian military ranks. It is not implausible to believe that a mutiny could take place on one of these ballistic missile submarines. If Russia or China were confronted about this, they would claim that it was a tragic event not ordered by their governments. There would be no basis to have a full-scale nuclear retaliation destroying most of the world under these circumstances. If Chairman Xi were shown irrefutable proof that one of his missiles did the damage, he would eventually take responsibility and start paying damages in the trillions of dollars. If President Putin were shown the same evidence, he would deny it until the day he died. In the darkest depths of my mind, I would suspect that Putin would fabricate a mutiny like this to ”get even” with the US over his failures in Ukraine. Let us go back to Melbourne, Australia, in 1967. A resourceful prison inmate got a gun smuggled to him. He staged an escape attempt. There was a shootout between him and the prison guards. One prison officer was killed. The prison inmate was charged with murder, found guilty, and after he exhausted his appeals, he was hanged in Pentridge Prison. One medical examiner was not comfortable with what had happened. He took another look at the bullet that killed the prison officer and did ballistics. The bullet had not come from the inmate’s gun. It had come from another prison officer’s gun. An innocent man had been hanged. The medical examiner did not hide his findings. He publicly announced them. What followed was a firestorm of rage and moral indignation throughout Australia. There never was another hanging in Australia. Eventually, all Australian states abolished capital punishment. If the scenario with Chicago ever took place, there would be a firestorm of rage and moral indignation worldwide. Nuclear weapons would be abolished.