The Probability Of Trump Winning The Presidential Election

Profile photo for Geoff Arnold Geoff Arnold · Follow I am a career musician (guitar, bass, piano, percussion) and music teacher.Updated Sat What is the probability of Donald Trump winning the next presidential election? I’m going to answer this question differently than probably anyone else. Right now, the elderly are passing away at approximately 14,000 per 100,000 elderly every year. So with ten million elderly as an example, you have 1.4 million dying every year. Over the past eight years, since 2016, that means over 11 million elderly folks have died. Now, factor in that some living elderly have stopped voting for various reasons we won’t get into right now. So that’s 11 million fewer elderly voters in the last eight years. Elderly people tend to be more conservative in their voting habits. It isn’t hard and fast, but as a person of 70 years, I vote far more conservatively than I did when I was in my 20s. Now, let’s look at another factor… Young people are graduating high school at a rate of approximately 3.5 million a year. The majority of them are eligible to vote either right a way or within one year (I graduated when I was 17, so had to wait one year, back in 1972 until 1973). Most young people tend to vote more liberally than conservatively. No, again, it isn’t hard and fast, but it is generally true. Over the past 8 years, that means over 25 million young became voters. The young voters coming into the political arena far outstrip the elderly remaining, and as more elderly people pass away, more young people will be replacing them at approximately 2.5 to one, as has been the general trend for many years, dating back more than eight years. Okay, still with me? Good. Now, bear in mind, I am speaking in generalities, not specifics. The stats I have cited are not hard numbers, but generally true. Therefore, seeing as how young people tend to vote more liberally into their forties before beginning to dial back a bit as they get closer to retirement, we see the trend toward more progressive candidates is becoming more and more the norm. Conservative candidates are losing more races than they are winning, generally speaking. Rural America tends to be more conservative, and as many point out, that is NOT where the majority of people live in this nation. So, while rural America votes in conservatives, their influence is still beginning to wane as the young in rural America are indeed becoming more liberal/progressive in their views. It has been happening for nearly 40 years. Again, this is a generality, but still essentially true. I live in a small town. The young here are more liberal than their parents in many ways, including politically and socially. Now, having set the core reasoning in place, here is my answer to the original question: What is the probability of Donald Trump winning the next presidential election? Given the statistics, flawed as my assessment may be, the general trend of the American voter is becoming more progressive, not conservative. Therefore, the probability of Donald Trump winning the presidential election in 2024 is approximately 40% He most likely will take the “flyover states” more than not because they are still predominately conservative OUTSIDE the major cities in those states. But this is no longer a guarantee because of the shift in weight of the vote of the young becoming more dominant. Trump will not take the major metropolitan metroplexes, and so will fail to take Washington, Oregon and California, New York, Massachusetts, Delaware, New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania… Well, you see right there, he loses because he fails to take key states or flip Blue states. But, and I say this guardedly, you never know. There are still three months until the election. The economy is a big deal with people. Education issues are a big deal with people. The wars are a big deal with people. And unless Kamala implodes, which is entirely possible if not wholly likely, then Trump does win in the key states. The American people are angry. Just how angry about everything will determine the outcome. But I do not hold out much hope for Trump at this point. ((I am stunned that over 525K people have seen this post in just 17 days! Thanks to all of you.)) (( I am now seriously overwhelmed that 850K people have seen this post as of 8/31/24 - I’m wondering that it will reach 1 million before the election!)) 912.3K views View 7,523 upvotes View 125 shares 1 of 571 answers