The US vs Venezuela-What Is Going On?

Title: These are the potential operations the Pentagon is planning against Venezuela Back in September, the US military dispatched a sizable force near Venezuela. Yet one that was still moderate in size, limiting what it could pull off. So the US mostly settled with intercepting and destroying what it called narcocartel’s speedboats. But since then, the US has made further preparations and has sent additional forces. It seems the goal of toppling Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan president, and changing his authoritarian government, might be in its sights. This video will explore what military options might help the US achieve that and what sort of attacks the US might perform. Since our previous video in September, US forces stationed near Venezuela, on route to Venezuela, or patrolling near Venezuela have increased dramatically. More Burke-class destroyers were added, as were a special operations ship and resupply ships. Plus, the Ford aircraft carrier, US most modern and biggest carrier, is en route to the area, or has perhaps even already arrived, accompanied by one more Burke destroyer and a resupply ship. US forces September 2 Burke destroyers 1 Tico cruiser 1 nuclear submarine 1 LCS corvette 2 San Antonio amphibious assault ships 1 Iwo Jima amphibious/air assault ship November 4 Burke destroyers 1 Tico cruiser 1+ Nuclear submarine 1 LCS corvette 2 San Antonio amphibious assault ships 1 Iwo Jima amphibious/air assault ship 1 Special ops ship 2 Resupply ships 1 Hospital ship 1 Submarine support ship Back in September, additional airbase work was observed in one location in Puerto Rico. By November, three bases had seen modifications. Including a larger apron, enlarged taxiways, and possibly even longer runways. In addition to various mobile control and security equipment brought in. September Air power (including aircraft on Iwo Jima) 10 F-35B 4-6 Harriers 4-6 Viper attack helicopters 12+ Osprey rotorcraft Several CH-53 heavy helicopters 12+ Venom/Seahawk helicopters Several Reaper drones A few P-8 ISR planes are operating nearby November Air power (including aircraft on Iwo Jima/Ford) 44-48 F-18E/F Several F-18G electronic warfare planes Several E-2D radar surveillance planes 10 F-35B 4-6 Harriers 4-6 Viper attack helicopters 12+ Osprey rotorcraft Several CH-53 heavy helicopters 16+ Venom/Seahawk helicopters Several Reaper drones A few P-8 ISR planes operating nearby A few B-1B bombers operating periodically A few B-52 bombers operating periodically Roosevelt Roads Base and Rafael Hernández Airport, both in Puerto Rico, saw the said additional work done. As did Henry Rohlsen Airport in the US Virgin Islands territory east of Puerto Rico. The US wouldn’t have gone into such infrastructure investment unless there were gonna be some serious air operations done from all those bases. Keep in mind, the US also has the Guantanamo base in Cuba, which, in theory, could also be used, if beefed up further, but for political reasons, that might be the last resort. At least 40 but probably more C-17 flights were observed into Puerto Rico since September, bringing in various equipment. The US is evidently gearing up for something bigger than was evident back in September. Now, we won’t talk about Venezuelan forces much as those are far from being important. Even IF the Venezuelan military were to react to US strikes, even if enough of its air defenses and Air Force survived, and even if enough were willing to try to attack US assets, there’s hardly anything Venezuela could do. At best, some lucky interceptions of US planes and rotorcraft might happen. The media were full of news of Russia sending air defenses, but so far, a single Ilyushin 76 plane has been observed coming to Venezuela. At best, it could’ve carried something like a few Pantsir vehicles or some Buk missiles or launchers. It is possible a few more flights sneaked past undetected, but even so, it’s not easy to transport a whole air defense battery by air. A single Ilyushin 76 might transport 2 Buk launch vehicles, so the whole battery would require close to a dozen flights. So, even if Venezuelan air defenses have been beefed up a little, it’s not gonna amount to much. Venezuela would be wise to disperse those assets as much as possible and use them very sporadically, basically never using their radars as the primary means of aircraft detection. Even if it means relying on other, smaller radars or even relying on other obsolete means for detection. Then, if close enough, and if lucky enough to stop and shoot quickly, it might catch some unlucky US low or medium altitude aircraft or rotorcraft off guard. Venezuelan SAM batteries were previously known 2 S-300VM 2 Buk M2 4 Pechora 2M Possible additions A few/several Pantsir S1 vehicles A few Buk M2 vehicles Such an ambush would increase the chances of the US detecting the SAM battery and blowing it up. With the massive number of satellites, side-looking radar-equipped surveillance planes peeking at Venezuela from a few hundred miles away, and probably US informants on the ground, it’s quite plausible the US is already tracking most of Venezuela's SAM batteries. The Venezuelan Air Force would hardly be a threat. It’d get bombed on the ground by cruise missiles and stand-off bombs. At best, Venezuela might be able to disperse some planes beforehand. And likely keep them hidden during the whole ordeal. Any and every airstrip in Venezuela is likely monitored 24/7 and would be hard-pressed to launch su30 missions. Let alone successful ones. And anyway, Su-30s are 30 years old technology nowadays. Venezuela had up to 18 F-16A, but only a few may be flightworthy It has 21 Su-30MKV Perhaps the biggest threat to the US might be various shoulder-launched missiles, if the US goes for troop insertions deep inside Venezuela via rotorcraft. Venezuela has received thousands of Russian Igla MANPADs, on top of having some Western MANPADs as well. With rotorcraft being slow and with plenty of treeline protection, shoulder-launch missile operators could detect targets early enough to fire off some shots into mostly helpless targets. 4000-5000 Igla 400 RBS-70 Maybe some Mistral But all that really depends on what the US wants to do. Here are some possibilities. The US is already likely doing CIA covert missions inside Venezuela. Said missions were publicly approved. The forces the US has are still really insufficient for an invasion. Three assault ships can land some 22 hundred marines in one go, but even if the US has further troops prepped, it’s unlikely to be a figure many times over. And it’d be likely to take days and weeks until further troops are used. Venezuela’s ground force 63,000 active army personnel 15,000 marines 23,000 National Guard 220,000 paramilitaries But a full-scale invasion of Venezuela is likely not what the US is after. There’s one immediate goal: after Trump makes the final decision, and after a legal go-ahead for attacks is produced. To change who runs Venezuela. That means toppling Maduro. There are several ways to go about it, but they all boil down to these two. Either pressure Maduro and his clique to flee. Or to convince people around Maduro to rise up and get rid of him. Now, everything done so far by the US is likely a form of pressure. The US hopes Maduro will get scared and simply leave the country, leaving a political vacuum that the US could influence and control. Even the slow but inevitable cruise of the Ford carrier to the Caribbean is part of the show. If pure intimidation fails, bombs may start falling. At that point, it’s less likely the US would be content with letting Maduro flee. So then the option of pressuring others into performing a coup d’etat might be more likely. And who gets bombed, how much, and where do US forces go - that can help convince those people around Maduro to topple him. We’re not talking about the general population. But about people enabling Maduro’s governance. While a lot of this is speculative, it’s plausible that a lot of the military in Venezuela is integrated into and or connected with various drug cartels. So, it’d be easy to imagine a deal: as long as Maduro’s government doesn’t interfere with the drug deals, the military stays loyal. Now, if the US were to start attacking narcocartels’ assets, especially with an under-the-table promise to stop once Maduro is out, cartels might rebel against Maduro. And with them, a lot of the armed forces, including higher echelons. Action against cartels might include US troop insertions, as we’re not talking about tens of thousands of troops opposing them. And if anti-cartel ops aren’t enough, the US might go for long-term pressure. Like bombing and raiding Venezuela’s oil production and oil export assets. Refineries, ships, and so on. Venezuela’s economy has been in tatters for a long time, and its main driver has been oil export, run by a government-owned company. And oil makes up for two-thirds of all the country’s exports. Venezuela GDP 2024 - $106 billion Exports $26 billion in 2024 (World Bank, goods and services) Imports $9 billion Oil and fossil fuel exports $17.5 billion in 2024 So oil is two thirds. Even more worryingly for Maduro, oil exports make up half the total state budget. If those stop, the country will quickly go bankrupt. And then all hell can break loose. With possibly many of the officers around Maduro switching sides, once they realize the day they stop getting paid may be close. Of course, such strikes would come in a package with a general show of force. US bombing Venezuelan military sites, bases, and a campaign of decapitation of various leadership around Maduro and his generals. Be it via air strikes or assassinations. With the ultimate goal of sowing fear among Maduro's ranks. No one would know who could be next to be killed. Unless Maduro is toppled. So that’s where we’re at. The US aims to pressure the cartels and generals around Maduro to get him out of power. It’s a plan that has a high likelihood of working, depending on the amount of pressure applied. Which means that if at first Maduro doesn’t go, the US might be bringing in even more forces, prolonging the whole bombing campaign. Right now, no final decision has been made, but the US is building up those forces and bases for a reason. Time will tell.