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Friday, January 14, 2022

Russia Could Find Itself In A Two-Front War In Ukraine And Finland

      Diplomatic talks between the US and Russia failed. Russian officials described them as "a write-off." What we have next is something that Elena describes as "a two-front war." We could see Russian combat troops fighting in both Ukraine and Finland.

    What does this mean for you? Will you see Russian nuclear warheads raining down on Europe, the US, etc? Let us get some perspective here. Russia is a giant landmass that covers 7 time zones. It has a population of 140 million people that is declining due to massive alcoholism, Covid-19, and AIDS. (Russia now imports farmers from India and gives them farmland to work.)

   Let us compare Russia to the greater New York City metropolitan area. New York City has roughly the same gross domestic product as Russia. The New York City greater metropolitan area contains 8% of the US industrial capacity. This is equal to the total industrial capacity of Russia.

    What I have seen with my own eyes is that small mistakes and misunderstandings can accumulate until they become a disaster. This whole situation with Russia is very dangerous because of the high probability of a miscalculation or mistake leading to a large-scale armed conflict.

    What you will see is gasoline and natural gas prices go much higher. The US, Canada, Brasil, Argentina, etc. have good local supplies of oil and gas. Europe is not in that position with the exception of, perhaps, Norway. Natural gas not only heats apartments and homes but is also a building block in the production of fertilizer that is vital for farmers to grow crops. Countries with natural gas in the ground will be able to buy gas at some price (if local people can afford it.) Europe could see a situation where there is little natural gas available.

      Financial markets will tumble in a panic over the conflict. Your retirement investments will be hurt. Even China and Japan, and India will be hit hard. Economies around the world will slip into recession.

     The Russian people will suffer greatly as crippling sanctions kick in. They will also see tens of thousands of their sons, brothers, husbands, sisters, wives, etc. dying on very lethal battlefields. Vladimir Putin will be faced with massive protests and civil unrest that could topple his regime. Think about what happens when a wild and violent animal finds itself cornered. I will leave all of you to reflect on this.

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