One of our readers told me about a real estate agent here in Pacifica (not one of our readers.) This man allegedly has 40 years of experience as a real estate agent. He has reported having said:
“Sell right now before the market
collapses!”
Elena and I heard these dire predictions in
2008-2010. To Elena’s credit, she refused to walk away from her home. 6,000,000
people in the US did lose their homes during this time.
This real estate agent correctly sees a
Putin invasion of Ukraine. US officials, who know a lot more than we do, are
calling for all US citizens to leave Ukraine (up to 30,000 live there.) Putin
launched a giant bluff to intimidate the US and Europe into going along with
what he wanted. He calculated that it would play out like what happened with
Hitler and Chamberlain in 1938. It did not work. Now he is left with no choice
but to make good on his threat to invade Ukraine.
This invasion will lead to massive new
sanctions against Russia. Economists have predicted a 30% contraction in the Russian
economy. Russia has very little trade with the US. Europe and China are huge
trading partners of Russia. Their economies will be hurt badly. The biggest
problem will be oil and natural gas prices that will go up substantially. Here
in the US, we could see $8.00 to $9.00 per gallon gasoline prices and a massive
increase in natural gas prices. We are lucky to have plenty of natural gas and
shale oil in the ground. Most of Europe and China are not so fortunate.
Elena comments that China will sit back and
relax while Europe, the US, and Russia suffer greatly. This is not quite
accurate. Chinese consumers and companies will have to pay very high prices
for oil and natural gas. They will have to send a lot of economic aid to Russia
to keep its economy going. They also might suffer a situation where oil and
natural gas are not available at any price.
As this invasion unfolds, it will get heavy
media coverage. Efforts to censor will fail because of the proliferation of mobile
phones and their ability to take videos. At first, the US will send a lot of
aid and help with covert operations kept secret from the American public. At
some point, Russian soldiers are going to do something brutal to Ukrainians or
US citizens who did not heed the warning to leave. This will be recorded on
cell phone video for the world to see. American public opinion will be
galvanized. A call for the US to enter the war will rise.
The US government is quite right in
saying that no ground troops will go to Ukraine. The Russian army is most
impressive. It has immense firepower. Any US units facing Russian troops would
suffer massive casualties that would not be acceptable to the American people. The
Russian Army does have an Achilles Heel. Once its air defense and missile
defense systems are neutralized, airpower could be used to rapidly inflict massive
casualties. I have sat through hours of briefings. I am satisfied that the US
has the technology and the weapons systems to neutralize the excellent Russian
air defense and missile defense systems.
Things will get worse and worse for Putin
as his economy collapses, massive unemployment hits the Russian people, and
Russian casualties start to mount. His own supporters might decide to force him
out of office.
The fear in the back of many people’s minds
is that when things get bad, Putin will order a nuclear first strike. I do not
think that his subordinates would carry out such an order. If you’re still concerned,
I will be glad to talk to you in private and share the information that I have
on this topic.
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