I am always on the lookout for stories that major media outlets miss or do not take seriously. There is a tiny notice in the New York Times this morning about two Greek oil tankers being seized in the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian Revolutionary Guard units using a helicopter and small patrol boats. This seizure was in retaliation for the seizure of a Russian flagged tanker carrying Iranian oil by Greek authorities. (The Iranian oil has been taken off the Russian ship. I would bet that the Greeks used this oil for domestic needs.)
This is a very disturbing event. Imagine
many other oil tankers being seized by Iranian authorities over sanctions
issues. This will drive oil prices much higher. It will create all sorts of
instability in the oil markets.
For some years I was part of a team that
did all sorts of wargaming with respect to Iran and its nuclear program. One of
the nightmare scenarios was that Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz. Please do
not go into panic mode. But be very alert and watchful over the next few weeks.
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