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Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Let Us Enjoy The Greatest Human Escape Of All



December 23, 2014 6:48 pm

Let us enjoy the greatest human escape of all

Martin WolfMartin WolfAuthor alerts
More prosperity is not necessary nor sufficient for improved health. It just makes it easier
Ingram Pinn illustration
T
he highest life expectancy recorded for women anywhere in the world has risen by a year every four years since 1840. This inexorable advance in longevity is, arguably, the most important of all the changes to human life in the past two centuries.
These gains in health are also widely shared: “India today has a higher life expectancy than Scotland in 1945 — in spite of a per-capita income that Britain had achieved as early as 1860.” This remark comes from a wonderful book, The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality , by Princeton University’s Angus Deaton, published last year, which documents the revolution in both health and wealth since the early 19th century. Of the two, the former is the more important. Who would not give up many material comforts if, in return, they could avoid the agony of watching their children die or enjoy the company of their loved ones in old age?

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No blessing is unmixed. Prolonged survival “sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything” is to be neither envied nor desired. Yet the revolution in health is still a blessing. As Professor Deaton notes: “Of all the things that make life worth living, extra years of life are surely among the most precious.” Someone whosestandard of living is twice as high and expects to live twice as long as someone else could even be deemed to be four times better off.
So what has happened?
Start with mortality rates (deaths per thousands) over time of three of today’s high-income countries: Sweden in 1751; the US in 1933; and the Netherlands and the US in 2000 (see chart). Back in 1751 the mortality rate of Swedish newborns was more than 160 per thousand people. It was more than 40 per thousand in the US in 1933. By 2000 it was below 10 per thousand. At subsequent ages mortality rates have become consistently lower over time, with the lowest rates of all for children aged about 10. Today we see a rise of mortality rates in the late teens, largely because of the riskier behaviour of young men. After a plateau in the late 20s and early 30s, death rates rise, but they do not reach 10 per thousand before age 60. US mortality rates are higher than those in the Netherlands, except for the over 80s. That is where the US concentrates its resources.
Martin Wolf comment data
Back in 1850 life expectancy was about age 40 in England and Wales. Today it is close to 80. In the case of Italy it has risen from 30 in 1875 to above the English level. The chart also shows the devastating effects of the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918. This is explained by how life expectancy is computed: the assumption is that the risks of dying at a particular age are produced by the ages of death of the population in a specific year. In 1918 a large proportion of young people died in the epidemic.
This reduced life expectancy drastically. But those born in 1918 had far longer lives than these figures suggest. Similarly, a small proportion of the English and Welsh population actually died at 40 in 1850. Instead, a great many died aged as babies and many lived to be more than 60. Forty was merely the average age of death. Finally, notes Prof Deaton: “Saving the lives of children has a bigger effect on life expectancy than saving the lives of the elderly.” Thus, as death “ages”, the rise in life expectancy slows.
The health revolution has spread worldwide since the middle of the 20th century — dramatically so in east Asia; least so, alas, in sub-Saharan Africa partly because of HIV/Aids. A big element has been the collapse in child mortality. According to theGapminder website, mortality among Indian children under five fell from 267 per thousand in 1950 to 56 in 2012. Over the same period it fell from 317 to 14 in China. These improvements occurred at much lower income levels than was the case in today’s high-income countries. This is partly because of improved knowledge (oral rehydration, for example), partly because of medical technology (vaccination, for example) and partly because of public services (clean water and sanitation, for example).
Martin Wolf comment data
Unfortunately, the improvements are not as complete as they should be. In Angola the under-five mortality rate is 164 per thousand. In Nigeria it is 124. Yet these are relatively well-off countries. In general, a link exists between prosperity and health. Yet greater prosperity is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for improved health outcomes. It just makes it rather easier.
The health revolution is not just a good in itself. It has beneficial consequences, the most important of which is the transformation of women’s lives. As child mortality tumbles, so does fertility: fewer births are needed to achieve a given family size. This is irrespective of religion: in Muslim Iran, for example, the number of children per woman fell from 6.5 in 1980 to 1.9 in 2012; similarly, in Catholic Brazil it fell from 6.2 in 1960 to 1.8 in 2012. As women live longer and have fewer children, they can invest more in each child and pursue their own careers. Thus the health revolution underpins another of the revolutions of our era: the change in the role of women.
Martin Wolf comment data
What has driven the improvements in health, particularly among the middle aged? A decline in smoking is a factor. Improved treatment for heart disease is another. Even cancer is succumbing to treatment. Increasingly, in high-income countries, the remaining diseases are those of old age, including dementia. But in most developing countries the old afflictions linger, including poor sanitation, contaminated water and malaria.
Yet for all that remains to be done, and all the inequality of health services across the globe, it is important to appreciate the great and increasingly widely shared improvement in health. An increasing proportion of humanity has a good chance of living healthily into what has traditionally been viewed as old age. A rising proportion of children is reaching maturity. We cannot escape death. But we do keep out of its grasp for ever longer. That is to be celebrated.

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Robbie2
Isn't a "long" life a completely relative concept?   The number could be 40 or 140?    Surely the key issue is a healthy life?   
Garmoco
Great article. We have much to be thankful for this holiday season. Yet only a few days ago, an Edward Luce article asked, "Is the West clinically depressed?" And The Economist has used the word "paranoid" for years to describe our mental state. Nearly a hundred years ago, Keynes said we'd spend a century pursuing material wealth but would then turn back to what's more important, meaning religion and spirituality. Might our hundred years be up?  
Pepin
Yes it is to be celebrated and it is a fantastic thing for most of us alive today. But it may be at the expense of future generations I fear as modern medicine is removing most selective pressures for us humans whereas it is creating massive selective pressure for our enemies (disease causing bacteria and other pathogens). 
georgi chinkov 4455
see how Vivacom in Bulgaria is leading a kind of price war against Telekom Austria Mtel in Bulgaria and their acquisitions of clients in last two quarters in their reports. See even Telenor is acquiring after some kind of losing critical mass by Mtel. See "Also visited websites", and "Topics" form here http://www.similarweb
/website/mtel.bg (very popular data-science site today) to explain the queues in recent months in the main Malls in Sofia. See the same for A1.net and vip.hr ... is there going to be a deep pocket strategy reply at all if there is price war in Austria or Croatia, if one considers Telekom Austria Market Capitalization a few years ago and their market capitalization today after two capital increases. See Raiffeizen and Erste provisions in last quarter. See their capital increases (i remember some not absolutely precisely), the the stress tests, and the decline of their market capitalization. See assumptions in these companies credit rating reports.
georgi chinkov 4455
Dear Commissioner JeanClaude Juncker,

What will happen next year with low Russian RUB (Similar to Turkish shock in 2014), when there will be high imports in Europe, CEE and Bulgaria from Russia and low export from CEE, Europe, Bulgaria to Russia? What will this mean for high unemployment, high bad loans, social tensions and currency pegs in the region? What will happen with the Austrian banks exposed to the region?

(If there is 2015 deficit of 2.3 BLN BGN for 18.24 BLN BGN incomes for 20.54 BLN BGN expenditure, then after 2-3 years with deficits from 2014 onwards (according tohttp://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/eory/2014/11/26/2426982_deficit_i_oshte_dulgove_v_bjudjet_2015/), the debt will increase, but probably even this year Bulgaria credit rating may be speculative. So many companies and banks will also be with speculative ratings and you may check the default rate in wikipedia, often in such banks in Hungary or Greece the deposits decline and with currency board there will be a decline in GDP as well according to quantitative theory of money for a few years. So the budget policy may push the economy in crisis. When they realize what has been done and the deficit is paid back less then 16 BLN BGN expenditure will be possible compared with 20.5 BLN BGN in 2015. Provided tax rate are increased, less of taxes will be collected. There will also be interest for the new loan. So it looks like a stupid bluffing for the future of the country. Why is that? Because EU is loosing support in Bulgaria? Why EU is delaying its funds for Bulgaria and there is only verbal support, do they have reasonable doubts for their support in CEE?)

I) Last week 6.11.2014, by coincidence, I received the reciprocal reply to my letter for a possible Money Laundering by Telecom Austria (Carlos Slim major owner) you may see at facebook.com/pages/GeorgiChinkov In particular, I had announced to the Sofia Customs in Sept. 2014 that, when I've received a cheap ipcamera and separately a cheap minipc bananapi from china, they were announced from the online stores for lower prices and I have to pay additional VAT.
I received a letter from Sofia Customs and they tried to make me start a new procedure, as though I have imported by myself the goods, and in a document for presenting the goods to the Custom Manifest, it was stated that “there is a bank warranty”, which means that somehow, some bank promised to the Sofia custom to pay for all my imported goods custom obligations to some limit, while I have not required any warranty. This means that any good might have been added to the empty list and imported with my signature, had I signed the Manifest, and I managed sofar to retain the Declaration as a partial proof. There is completely different procedure for a Post Office parcel and they, by law have written a correct Manifest. So there was a request for a wrongcontent document (bank warranty) which is similar to Money Laundering, by chance, and I have a lot of enemies with writing the open letter for Slim, to Bulgarian Central Bankers to the European Commission and I see a lot of connections among them stated in the letter. I expect similar violations with property rights, human rights from your organization.

When, I've been working, for the Bulgarian Central Bank around 2008, I visited a conference on Human Capital by the Austrian Central Bank. For fireplace diner meeting, of the Austria Financial Minister and Austria Central Bank Governor, an Austrian professor was on the one side and a person presenting himself as Chief of Security of the Luxembourg Central Bank on the other. So the Austrian professor claimed that he is great friend with a Bulgarian governor and insisted several times … “you have to pay to commercial bankers to retain them !!!” Several main Bulgarian Commercial Banks are registered in Austria. To present my view for the conference in the European elite society style, as Sacher cake is not exactly a nice cake with some cream, but pretty expensive, so the Austria society at the moment does not avail with substantial human capital, as they rely mostly on CEE investments with a lot of external debt, and banks with high interest rate spread that prevents growth in CEE, but check the banks external debt from Statistical Office. Security and Operations is not enough for prosperity, as there is a lot of information, and we are scarce in analytics. Well, Austria seems to overfit seriously in their traditions, this is not the correct model and not occasionally your universities are not rated well. I think, even the names of people will mean something for models with such overfitting. It is not occasional Salieri poisoned Mozart, his understanding for the world is first biased, and then he should be overfitting in his elementary understanding. For Salieri, it is complete shock to understand the changing circumstances. Therefore, the current economic crisis in Austria is due to wrong real economy perhaps, and there is no need to take risks but to start thinking for knowledge in the economy, not gamble with hundreds of billions external private and public debt. For example read the rating agencies reports for Austrian Banks, see their market value and bailout assumptions. See also the ratings of CEE and Balkan countries and their economies in view of new sovereign loans, I will present the case of Bulgaria in two lines latter. I would never work for a European Union Supported company in Bulgaria as Telecom Austria Mtel, as support makes the companies with internal market ineffective (no external competition as other IT industries), which is clear from their results and there is always some influence from supporters and some hidden idea. I would expect similar results for EBRD supported Bulsatcom.

I stated the theory of Marx that when capital requires constant return, workers will protest as their wages decline as stated in Oxford Economics Dictionary especially true if we assume monopolistic structures. There were 12 bestsellers for reminding the Marx theory recently in UK. So consistently, there were two protests with more then 100 000 in Hungary and Brussels last week as well as selfburning people from poverty in Bulgaria again. To explain these sociological underpinnings with Bulgaria EC prognosis for example (ec.europa.eu
There figures respectively for 2014 2015 2016 by indicators (comma separated)
GDP growth(yoy) 1.2,0.6,1.0
Potential GDP 1.5,1.6,1.6
Harmonised index of consumer prices 1.4, 0.4, 1.0
Total employment 0.3,0.2, 0.3
Net lending (+) or net borrowing (), general government (as a percentage of GDP 3.6, 3.7, 3.9
Primary balance, general government ¹ (as a percentage of GDP, 19952016) 2.8,2.8,2.8
Gross debt, general government¹ (as a percentage of GDP, 19952016) 25.3, 26.8,30.2

written by Georgi Chinkov. Support me as you like me at facebook.com pages GeorgiChinkov ..
georgi chinkov 4455
II) So with very high budget deficit, the Government will try to compensate for high negative lending for three years, due probably to Austrian Banks new ratings after possible bailin directive from 2015, substantial bad loans in 2014 (writeoffs and losses); also the Government Gross debt will increase to 30.2 for these three years and the rating of the country will also be changed as credit agencies decide. For such case as Bulgaria, Romania (Balkans) CEE, it is relevant to see Balances of Commercial Banks in Greece and Hungary for example in view of their rating to have an idea of Austrian and Greece banks evaluation, if they do not change ownership in future. The Potential GDP, however increases a lot to provide opportunity for such substantial deficit or to keep the people away from protests (so typical for some years now), but I think employers and labor syndicates in Bulgaria, do Lucas critique to Government and strive for sustainable future for them and their kids without unnecessary debt. Is this geopolitics in EC forecasts, to look very risky, probably not optimal path for the economy of Bulgaria to stay without protest, so typical for EU last week in Hungary and Brussels or to keep the bad loans growth relatively low at the expense of country future? Do the calibration, see envisaged employment to have an idea how likely is this scenario.

Another interesting topic is digital surveillance in EU and private companies participation as in USA Snowden case, especially in view of EU support for telecommunication companies. I recommend the CEBIT presentation for analytics and tools overview (cebit.de
/en/conferences/conferenceprogram/topspeakersofcebit2014/mikkohypponen.xhtml) e.g. PRISM, and definition of privacy as human right (generally, one cannot sell his privacy and the idea for required localization by telecoms is not correct) classcentral.com
/mooc/1492/edxengri1280xwiretapstobigdataprivacyandsurveillanceintheageofinterconnection For example, many of my SMS for Email were delayed to endof the day for few years in Mtel, Telecom Austria and the Email may have been decrypted. There are sometimes other MAC addresses in my router, when possible to be broken. It is not clear how one my request for paying some 20 EUR VAT turned into a case with Bank Warranty Custom Manifest to be offered to me to sign. Is it occasionally now after writing the open letter for EC, Telecom Austria, Bulgarian Central Bankers and is there some information leakage?

When studying in Soros CEU Budapest some students went to EU institutions, some were admitted for a PhD in Stockholm, and other good universities and many, from Baltic Countries, work for Sweden Central Bank, and Sweden has some banks in Baltics, and some went to Austria, as Austria has banks in CEE. I already mentioned that there is some selfselection model in CEU and who do not accept the conditions and negotiations pays his scholarship with labor as I explained in the letter. In this case it is not WB, ECB, IMF, EC some other central western bank that takes the responsibility, but Soros or some other wealthy person as Slim hypothetically. Well power is mainly knowledge, and for advanced countries and unions we talk for trillions sometimes, not billions. This is why institution as WB, ECB, IMF, EC, countries or unions rule the game. If Baltics or CEE, Balkans have some EU protests and are disappointed from EU, I think this policy is intrinsic for EU institutions for at least 10 years now, and it is not a coincidence but persistent policy and a belief under EU ideals unfortunately. It is capital that drives EU now and the protests and interests in Russia from Poland, to Latvia to Bulgaria or Serbia is not occasional. This is the reason for digital surveillance of my communications, attempt to violate my human right and make me work for Austrian or EU supported company or inventing me Customs documents, for which somebody may profit, or I will be blackmailed. I am sure, there will be further attempts by involved institutions and the responsibility is from the President of EC as my calculations are back of the envelop, but there is also an envelop theorem. I do not want risk taking in EU countries with apossible Money Laundering by Telecom Austria (Carlos Slim major owner), but sustainable policy with accountability and democracy, which many people in Europe do not believe any more and go to protests.

written by Georgi Chinkov. Support me as you like me at facebook.com pages/GeorgiChinkov ..
georgi chinkov 4455
Will Commissioner Juncker be involved with a possible Money Laundering by Telecom Austria (Carlos Slim major owner) and how is Commissioner Juncker connected to the Bulgarian Central Bankers partisan politics?

Open letter,
/First part/

Dear Commissioner JeanClaude Juncker,
Dear Journalists,

My name is Georgi Chinkov.
In view of the expected GDP slowdown/decline this Quarter 2014 (Q3 14 November data), I would like to state my case of abuse of my human rights and blackmailing by a network of European authorities so that the proper steps will be taken by the new commission if these great people wish to do so, and stop their myopic and abovelaw profit optimization. It is related with European Commission and Commissioner Juncker taking excessive risks because of loss aversion (not ready to decrease their wellbeing), even with some doubts for money laundering relations in Europe related with Carlos Slim acquiring Telecom Austria.

GDP is possibly declining or nonincreasing, because of inequality in Europe and lack of equal opportunities. Marx envisages in his theory a revolution, because the wealthy strive to keep their rate of return on capital, and so poor people wages decline, if there is slow technological progress.

Commissioner Juncker stated that this is the last commission if they do not manage to win back the trust of European people. This seems to be extremely important statement as there are not very clear facts e.g:
how THE FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION: TREND graph stays stable after sharp decline (http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb81/eb81_first_en.pdf p.10)


My case

Commissioner Junker, do not endanger my relatives, for my awareness of how EC “convinces” many CEE EC employees to steal from their countries for your Governments or Companies. I rejected, so solve your problem personally with me.
Do not involve me with the The Bulgarian central bankers from research or EBRD any more or the CEU students. Stop Digital Surveillance for my IT (smartphone, PC, router other MACs, Encryption), I do not think it is useful for your personal image or European Growth. Stop blackmailing me with people involved in EU institutions for committing crimes (I describe below) in your companies as Telecom Austria for concealing your organization crimes. It is not possible for you not to know these people or my case, as these people have access to confidential data in organizations as ECB, EC, EBRD as permanent or temporary employees.

(1) I worked for the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance with the EU Delegation on preaccession funds initially.
(2) Then in 2004, I studied Economics in Soros' CEU Budapest, from where many students went to ECB, the European Commission, EBRD. They thought us theories for cartels and creating crises with the statement “Nobody leaves unconvinced”.
(3) When I came back to Bulgaria, Mihovska (Council of Europe, UNDP) said that there is an Union behind Soros and I could pay my scholarship of 20 000 USD with working in an international company, where the blackmailing from European Authorities started.
(3) Then, I worked for the Research of the Bulgarian National Bank just before the 2009 crisis related with Kalin Hristov, Statti Stattev, Mariela Nenova, Rosen Rosenov (IMF), Andrey Vassilev,
Stoevsky (ECB), Tsvetan Tsalinsky (EC,ECB), Karagyozova and they on purpose organized the crisis with providing a lot of cheap loans and the intention to increase later interest rate for profits, which led to low economic growth for the past 6 years and substantial bad loans as in CEE: e.g. Romania, Croatia...
(4) I worked up to recently in Telecom Austria (Mtel), for several years with the following attempts for involving me in crimes. /Telecom Austria is a company close to the European Authorities, check for EBRD loans and EU programs for them. There is also a loan for Bulsatcom from EBRD with the same schema. I've been a victim of surveillance by Telecom Austria with, stopping all my SMS during the day for a long period so that I will not check immediately my encryptionbroken Email for getting a job, where I am not endangered by their crimes. See also the sites Telecom Austria host for the Bulgarian Government and Banks in Bulgaria, this time for an idea what information they need to protect./
First, I had to work for three years overtime and during weekends to pay the blackmailing for my CEU “Scholarship”: 20 000 USD equivalent.
Then, Mtel introduced a billing system with wrong bills for several months, that led to more then a hundred thousand complaints and a crisis for the company. I had to calculate an equal percentage payback for all these complaints for weeks so that the customers will stay in the company, and in the end for so many work to safe them, Mtel added some 50 000 BGN in my calculations, so that, I will work for these money “free” for several year again. This has not happened as I noticed their crime.
Last Mtel Manager, tried to write in my responsibilities “their customer service budget to be absolutely correct and checked” while I am a statistician, not an accountant, which is completely misleading and an crime involvement. Then I left for their cheating, as well as the company is with such a bad image in Internet that customers are leaving.

Telecom Austria, which is a telecom, close to European Commission, was trying to involve me in a crime to conceal the Bulgarian National Bank Researchers crimes for creating the 2009 crisis. (e.g Stoevsky paper for Import that omits on purpose credits as an explanatory variable or Tsvetan Tsalinsky Economic Review that say that the high industry load before crisis means that there will be more investments...or Andrey Vassilev purposeful wrong assumptions in models for consumption smoothing in future).
georgi chinkov 4455
Will Commissioner Juncker be involved with a possible Money Laundering by Telecom Austria (Carlos Slim major owner) and how is Commissioner Juncker connected to the Bulgarian Central Bankers partisan politics?

/Second part/
Open letter,

Dear Commissioner JeanClaude Juncker,
Dear Journalists,

My name is Georgi Chinkov.

I. Please now check Telecom Austria incomes in the third quarter 2014. Incomes seem quite high compared to previous quarter, even achieving growth on yearly basis, especially in countries with weak legislation application, so there are doubts for Money Laundering by the new owner Carlos Slim sinc e now onwards.

For example this article from Economist, which is about overreporting Mexico exports to USA with some 15%:

as well as the fact that, former owner of Mtel, Cherney is wanted by Interpol for similar activity and many of Mtel employees have been in the company since then. interpol

II. From external data: alexa, website visits for 2014 mtel.bg state surprising increase in interest contradictory to similarweb
/website/mtel.bg which is difficult to manipulate

Telecom Austria was involved in two serious scandals lately for Managers manipulating shares and Peter Hochegger bribing politicians in Austria both leading to sentences.

I would like to ask Commissioner Juncker, as Telecom Austria was involved in surveillance, they tried to involve me in a crime with cheating several times for blackmailing me to conceal the Bulgarian Central Bank Researchers crimes, and European Commission Involvement with the Telecom Austria company, if Commissioner Juncker is aware for money laundering risk Telecom Austria and Carlos Slim is involved now in Europe? For the previous crimes, my memories are that some 4 000 datasets were investigated, and now there are also serious doubts with the surprising change in income trend for Q3 2014?

The main reason for this is that Austria has quite high budget deficit this year, and their major Banks as Erste and Raiffaizen are with prognoses for serious negative profits this year. There is also going to be the bailin Directive from 2015 year and if you read their rating agencies reports some banks may be with speculative rating and very high interest on their obligations in future. The fact is that Austria has a substantial external debt of nearly twice their GDP (wikipedia.org
/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt). Their market valuations, already have these facts envisaged in some degree. So calculate what is expected for Austria household disposable income, with high government GDP share and high interest on obligations or deposits (e.g see balance sheets of banks in Hungary or Greece).

It is also interesting, what is the valuation of the Bulgarian banking sector in view of Raiffazen, OTP, Unicredit shares evaluation for example and their respective share in assets. Please consider that the budget deficit this year in Bulgaria should be about 4% (including for bank problems) if voted,and there is about 1% decline in nominal GDP envisaged for 2014 (expecting to see what will be the agencies rating later this year) (capital.bg
/politika_i_ikonomika/bulgaria/2014/10/27/2407945_bliznashki_vnasia_aktualizaciiata_na_bjudjeta_v/)(deflation, reduction in tax incomes)... to what extent will badloans in Bulgaria increase and what this means for Bulgarian Banks Market Evaluation. For this reasons, it is likely risk to be taken as the recently Corporate Commercial Bank serious problems, or EUR 400 mn impairment in Mtel due to WACC with some 4.1 million subscribers Q3 2014 (Too high Subscriber base and too low ARPU some 6.2 EUR Q3 2014) and I would like to ask Commissioner Junker if he is aware for these Mtel Money Laundering risks?

The main profit for the European companies from now onwards, should be from the Cooper Mines in Bulgaria (Telecom are not very profitable, as actually Mtel is with very fast declining incomes for years, and bellow criticalmass network due to high prices, bad brand connotation according to forums (critical network mass: continuing decline in their group and in bulgaria other telecoms); badloans started to increase again lately although the substantial budget deficit...) and I am not sure they will be enough for net EU transfers. I think on some online news forums (with a million click per month) 8090% would prefer Russian orientation due to poverty of BG people and greediness of western companies.

I've send complaints to the UN Office on Drugs and Crimes in Vienna, Vienna Prosecutors Office, Interpol and Europol for the risk Telekom Austria to be involved in Money Laundering in view of the liquidity and solvency problems the major Austria firms (banks and the telecom) might face – occasional or not the day before the Austria financial minister resigned (he signed the deal with Carlos Slim for Teleokm Austria, if I remember correctly). Commissioner Juncker is completely aware of the situation with Telecom Austria as I've posted many times information on his Facebook page and European Commission and European Parliament, which have been deleted.

My lawyer advised me not to complain for such a topic in Bulgaria or I will be endangered, but in view of my involvement with the European institutions as the European Commission with their employees I've mentioned in the text so far, and their responses to my official complaint, that they are not responsible for the crimes on the territory of Bulgaria for some of which current EC are related, I would like to raise the issue if they are involved and responsible for Telekom Austria, as this is much less threatening for me and my relatives then the greedy, reckless and criminal geopolitics of the European Commission involving style revealed by Snowden but by EC.

Dear Journalists, please investigate my case for stories, I've posted in INTERNET that lead to this situation. My post have changed a lot of opinions, but also endanger me and my relatives.
georgi chinkov 4455

If there is 2015 deficit of 2.3 BLN BGN for 18.24 BLN BGN incomes for 20.54 BLN BGN expenditure, then after 2-3 years with deficits from 2014 onwards (according tohttp://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/eory/2014/11/26/2426982_deficit_i_oshte_dulgove_v_bjudjet_2015/), the debt will increase, but probably even this year Bulgaria credit rating may be speculative. So many companies and banks will also be with speculative ratings and you may check the default rate in wikipedia, often in such banks in Hungary or Greece the deposits decline and with currency board there will be a decline in GDP as well according to quantitative theory of money for a few years. So the budget policy may push the economy in crisis. When they realize what has been done and the deficit is paid back less then 16 BLN BGN expenditure will be possible compared with 20.5 BLN BGN in 2015. Provided tax rate are increased, less of taxes will be collected. There will also be interest for the new loan. So it looks like a stupid bluffing for the future of the country. Why is that? Because EU is loosing support in Bulgaria? Why EU is delaying its funds for Bulgaria and there is only verbal support, do they have reasonable doubts for their support in CEE? What will happen next year with low Russian RUB, when there will be high imports in Europe, CEE and Bulgaria from Russia and low export from CEE, Europe, Bulgaria to Russia? What will this mean for high unemployment, high bad loans, social tensions and currency pegs in the region? What will happen with the Austrian banks exposed to the region?

I would like to ask the Government and in particular BNB (former colleagues) to stop illegal digital surveillance (e.g I see in my router other MAC addresses, some Email encryptions are broken) and not to use their, administration, business (banks or telecoms) connection for crimes against me. I understand you have hidden from society objectives, and for me revealing them, you are ready to everything for getting rid of me.

I worked for the Research of the Bulgarian National Bank just before the 2009 crisis related with Kalin Hristov, Statti Stattev, Mariela Nenova, Rosen Rosenov (IMF), Andrey Vassilev,
Stoevsky (ECB), Tsvetan Tsalinsky (EC,ECB), Karagyozova and they on purpose organized the crisis with providing a lot of cheap loans with the intention to increase later interest rate for profits, which led to low economic growth for the past 6 years and substantial bad loans as in CEE: similar to e.g. Romania, Croatia... In view of the Corporate Commercial Bank supervision case, consider If you could trust them further, considering my arguments.
(1) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I would like to ask my former colleagues from the research of the Bulgarian National Bank a little bit before 2009 crisis, to read carefully the following lines of legislation, although one of them stated “In Bulgaria, everything is possible...” or “These commercial banks are to big we(BNB) t orule them”. I know you have a lot of connections in Government, Law, form the time with some of you I studded in Budapest, Soros CEU,but the political situation is quite unstable now and everything is possible. See from here a case with the Sofia Customs (who is behind this story and what else I might expect from them): facebook.com

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ДОКУМЕНТНИ ПРЕСТЪПЛЕНИЯ
Чл. 308. (1) Който състави неистински официален документ или преправи съдържанието на официален документ с цел да бъде използуван, се наказва за подправка на документ с лишаване от свобода до три години.
(2) (Нова - ДВ, бр. 26 от 2004 г., изм., бр. 27 от 2009 г.) Когато предмет на деянието по ал. 1 са удостоверения за наследници или актове за гражданско състояние, нотариални актове или нотариални удостоверявания, български или чуждестранни документи за самоличност, документи за завършено образование или за придобита квалификация, свидетелства за управление на превозни средства, за регистрация на превозни средства, визови стикери, други документи, удостоверяващи прехвърляне или учредяване на право на собственост или на други вещни права, правоспособност, лични или регистрационни данни, наказанието е лишаване от свобода до осем години.
(3) (Нова - ДВ, бр. 26 от 2004 г., изм., бр. 33 от 2011 г., в сила от 27.05.2011 г.) Наказанието е лишаване от свобода до десет години, когато:
1. деянието по ал. 1 е с цел улесняване извършването на престъпление по чл. 108а, ал. 1 или 2;
2. деянието по ал. 2 е с цел имотна облага.

Чл. 310. (1) (Изм. и доп. - ДВ, бр. 26 от 2004 г.) Ако престъплението по чл. 308, ал. 1, и чл. 309, ал. 1 и 2 е извършено от длъжностно лице в кръга на службата му, наказанието е лишаване от свобода до пет години, а в случаите по чл. 308, ал. 2 и 3 - лишаване от свобода до дванадесет години, като съдът може да постанови и лишаване от право по чл. 37, ал. 1, точка 6. 
georgi chinkov 4455
See also, from the Facebook page , how Telecom Austria, which is a telecom, close to European Commission, was trying to involve me in a crime to conceal the Bulgarian National Bank Researchers crimes for creating the 2009 crisis. (e.g Stoevsky paper for Import that omits on purpose credits as an explanatory variable or Tsvetan Tsalinsky Economic Review that say that the high industry load before crisis means that there will be more investments...or Andrey Vassilev purposeful wrong assumptions in models for consumption smoothing in future).


Last week 6.11.2014, by coincidence, I received the reciprocal reply to my letter for a possible Money Laundering by Telecom Austria (Carlos Slim major owner) you may see at facebook.com/pages/Georgi-Chinkov In particular, I had announced to the Sofia Customs in Sept. 2014 that, when I've received a cheap ip-camera and separately a cheap mini-pc banana-pi from china, they were announced from the online stores for lower prices and I have to pay additional VAT.
I received a letter from Sofia Customs and they tried to make me start a new procedure, as though I have imported by myself the goods, and in a document for presenting the goods to the Custom Manifest, it was stated that “there is a bank warranty”, which means that somehow, some bank promised to the Sofia custom to pay for all my imported goods custom obligations to some limit, while I have not required any warranty. This means that any good might have been added to the empty list and imported with my signature, had I signed the Manifest, and I managed so-far to retain the Declaration as a partial proof. There is completely different procedure for a Post Office parcel and they, by law have written a correct Manifest. So there was a request for a wrong-content document (bank warranty) which is similar to Money Laundering, by chance, and I have a lot of enemies with writing the open letter for Slim and the Bulgarian Central Bankers to the European Commission and I see a lot of connections among them stated in the letter.

There were two protests with more then 100 000 in Hungary and Brussels last week as well as self-burning people from poverty in Bulgaria again. To explain these sociological underpinnings with Bulgaria EC prognosis for example (ec.europa.eu
There figures respectively for 2014 2015 2016 by indicators (comma separated)
GDP growth(yoy) 1.2,0.6,1.0
Potential GDP 1.5,1.6,1.6
Harmonised index of consumer prices -1.4, 0.4, 1.0
Total employment -0.3,-0.2, 0.3
Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-), general government (as a percentage of GDP -3.6, -3.7, -3.9
Primary balance, general government ¹ (as a percentage of GDP, 1995-2016) -2.8,-2.8,-2.8
Gross debt, general government¹ (as a percentage of GDP, 1995-2016) 25.3, 26.8,30.2
georgi chinkov 4455
II) So with very high budget deficit, the Government will try to compensate for high negative lending for three years, due probably to Austrian Banks new ratings after possible bail-in directive from 2015, substantial bad loans in 2014 (write-offs and losses) /just see what is written in rating reports for an idea/; also the Government Gross debt will increase to 30.2 for these three years and the rating of the country will also be changed as credit agencies decide. Even this prognosis, does not seem very credible. For this reason, the proposal for the Budget deficit correction from the new Government is much more risky. Assume, voting this year for 3.7% of GDP budget deficit, and the next for 3% of GDP, what we know for Aggregate Demand curve slope, considering that we have as deflation and VAT incomes decrease? Once Chobanov said that deflation and growth are quite strange data for him.

For such case as Bulgaria, Romania (Balkans) CEE, it is relevant to see Balances of Commercial Banks in Greece and Hungary for example in view of their ratings, to have an idea of the Austrian and Greece banks evaluation, if they do not change ownership in the future.
/en/financials for balance dynamics and erstegroup.com
/en/Investors/Ratings for ratings.
See Raiffeizen ECB stress test (end of 2003https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/banking/comprehensive/html/index.en.html) and there market capitalization now markets.ft.com
/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Summary?s=RBI:VIE as well the stess-test threshold by ECB.

See what is the rating of Bulgaria now, tradingeconomics.com
/bulgaria/rating and consider the debt increase. See en.wikipedia.org
/wiki/Bond_credit_rating for how Corporate Cumulative Historic Default Rates increase for Non-investment grade speculative. Usually the companies have lower ratings than countries. What this means for banks, is obvious from Greece and Hungarian commercial Banks balances, there is also substantial external private debt. Consider also the quantitative theory for money that p*Q=M*V. I think for change in M (as envisaged by EC prognosis in credits, which should correspond to deposits /big deposits are not warranted by EU legislation and look for high rating banks/), initially there is change in Q. So make your own calibration for expected change in product. en.wikipedia.org
/wiki/Price%E2%80%93specie_flow_mechanism “Using a theory called the quantity theory of money, Hume argued that in countries where the quantity of money increases, inflation would set in and the prices of goods and services would tend to rise while in countries where the money supply decreases, deflation would occur as the prices of goods and services fell.”
(2) -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- See Vivacom Mobile Subscribers at period end (in thousands 2014) 2 556(Dec13) 2 594(Mar14) 2 677(Jun14) 2 809(Sep14) to see acceleration of acquisition...

- “Клиентите на абонаментните програми на GLOBUL продължиха да се увеличават през третото тримесечие на годината и достигнаха близо 2.8 милиона, с 4% повече от същия период на миналата година”. “Общите приходи на GLOBUL за третото тримесечие на 2014 г. намаляха със 1.3% в сравнение на същия период от предходната година”

Mtel revenues then should have an effect of including remaining-to-the-end-of-contract -payments at once for the last Q 2014 of leaving customers (because of Vivacom promotions). So Q3 2014 93.7 mill EUR revenues should include this effect. Then calculate according to your average bill (of people you know) how many are really capable-of-paying Mtel clients at the end of September and see how Vivacom and Globul new clients increase with acceleration. Networks usually have level (critical mass), after which they quickly decline (if there is a reason e.g. bad brand, high prices to incomes). Imagine some of your friends move to another operator – so it is cheaper for you to switch as well. See queues in Malls for leaving and new customers.


The Potential GDP in EC prognosis, however increases a lot to provide an opportunity for such substantial deficit or to keep the people away from protests (so typical for some years now), but I think employers and labor syndicates in Bulgaria, do Lucas critique to Government and strive for sustainable future for them and their kids without unnecessary debt. Is this geopolitics in EC forecasts, to look very risky, probably not optimal path for the economy of Bulgaria to stay without protest, so typical for EU last week in Hungary and Brussels or to keep the bad loans growth relatively low at the expense of country future? Do the calibration, see envisaged employment to have an idea how likely is this scenario.

Georgi Chinkov
Rainer
Martin Wolf is describing the Golden Age of Public Health. Unfortunately the Malthusian limits (200 years late) are beginning to kick in:
1) obesity. More people now obese than underweight, with huge consequences for health services and it is poorly and expensively treatable.
2) rampant non-communicable diseases - not just obesity and diabetes, but depression, alcoholism, the continued vitality of tobacco, and more
3) undermining of the conditions of good health due to overproduction and overconsumption, the impact being biodiversity loss, soil loss, deforestation, forest fires, climate change, water pollution, etc etc. We are now using several planets of resources.
4) Growing inequality. The OECD says that virtually all of its member countries have seen growth of economic inequalities, which will result in political disorder.
5) People are living longer, but with increase in unhealthy life years, more dependent on medical and social care and drugs. 
6) Resurgence of infectious diseases. There are now more than 30 diseases which are not amenable to tradition prevention (immunisation, etc) and treatment (antibiotics)
7) Weakening of medical care responses. Antibiotics are declining in their effectiveness, in part due to the fact that Western countries use them in animal feed (accounting for around 75% by weight in USA). They are overused in medicine.
8) The world's population is too large if everyone receives and adequate standard of life and consumption. The planet cannot sustain cornucopia for everyone, in any case with consumerism life satisfaction begins to decline (the paradox of prosperity).
9) The productionist farming model - the means of escape from the Malthusian trap - is running out of ecological road due its energy dependency, water dependency and undermining of biodiversity. The more the world shifts to processed food the more the nutrition transition (and NCDs) kicks in.
I think I am running out of space. The point is that the focus on technological optimism and economic progress is far too narrow, unbalanced and unecological. In fact it applies a very narrow model of health (the world is old German meaning 'whole'). Diminishing returns have already set in, for reasons given above, and the Golden Age is on the wane. Neoliberalism looks resplendent and indeed trimphant... but only when looked at through rose-tinted spectacles Martin. 

GSo
To those who did not follow the link to Gapminder ; Do it now, and let the statistics tell the story! The numbers are storytellers on par with Wolf this time.
beachcomber
 “Of all the things that make life worth living, extra years of life are surely among the most precious.” They certainly are, provided you have the funds to support your expected lifestyle. 
And worse than “sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything”  is sans funds. 
The scenario of the elderly who have not provided for their non-working unproductive period at the end of their lives should be a thesis for many a PhD. Apart from the drain on the economy there are vast social implications of the legions of lonely elderly who need expensive health care. 
And to all the FT financial experts who are about to comment that you should have provided for this, may I remind them that the finance markets are fickle and untrustworthy and who knows what your investments will be worth when you really need them? 
Refer 2008/09 and did anyone see oil at $60 and perhaps lower? 
WendellMurray
Good essay, as almost always, from the esteemed M. Wolf. I have not read the book, but will look for it now.
Three requests for Mr Wolf:
1. An autobiographical sketch that is honest and insightful and that addresses anything that Mr. Wolf deems important. The more honesty and candor, the better. He is a true treasure with regard to writing on economic issues, so I, along with most of the Financial Times readership, would be keenly interested in reading such.
2. An honest assessment of Karl Marx's and Friederich Engels' work. Leaving dogmatism behind, both were fascinating figures, who proved to be an excellent pairing in their work. I have always considered Marx's work to be the successor to that of the previous two geniuses on such matters, David Ricardo and Adam Smith. Although Marx's style of writing was different from that of each of his predecessors, he deals with the same issues and is one more in the long series of writers who stand on the shoulders of prior giants.
3. Mr Wolf should read some of the work of the possibly now retired Robert Evans, a Canadian economist who has written some of the best analysis of health and healthcare economics. A particularly interesting book, Why are some people healthy and others not, edited by Mr Evans among others, concerns health as opposed to healthcare and the correlation of longevity to social status. Exceptionally insightful as is his book Strained Mercy.
Adam Bartlett
@WendellMurray  Totally second the call for a biography - though I'd rather he got someone else to write it as I think he might be too modest to do himself justice. Considering Wolf's achievements there's scant coverage in this regard, Im only aware of Julia Loffe's 'Call of the Wolf'.  I only know one biographer, she's can write a short book in only 3 months,  I asked her earlier in the year if she'd be interested in the proposal and she very much agreed that Wolf deserves a biography, but she said she was now too busy prepping for May (she's running to be an MP.)   Must be many others who'd be keen for the job though, even if it was just an in-depth article. 
jbx
@Adam Bartlett @WendellMurray I would be very keen to read MW's current views on Marx and Engels- they loomed so large as very serious challengers to prevailing wisdom as I was growing up, and there were so many people who said that China and Russia were not really applying their principles that I am a little suspicious that their disappearance due to the failures of socialism in practice may be a little too neat.
The Centrist
"No blessing is unmixed. Prolonged survival “sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything” is to be neither envied nor desired. Yet the revolution in health is still a blessing. As Professor Deaton notes: “Of all the things that make life worth living, extra years of life are surely among the most precious.”
I only understood the first statement above. Prof. Deaton's comment is difficult to understand. Why is extended life a blessing - 'sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything'?
Boleyman
The comment makes it clear that it isn't simply a blessing. It is a "mixed" blessing.  A bit good and a bit bad.  Unlike death, which is generally considerd wholly bad.
thanh1789
Human population aging & atrophy has started on Earth. Just yesterday, India announces that very soon it will reach replacement fertility (2.1 births/female). What will happen to mankind when all nations modernize and reach German/US/Japan/Iran/... sub-2.1 fertility? Species-wide population decline?
Check out www.demographicfate.com and explore this possibility: what if our population aging & atrophy is the natural end-fate common to all intelligent life in the universe? What if intelligent species everywhere all follow a natural life cycle of blooming and fading, like wildflowers? Naturally and peacefully?
duvinrouge
Since the invention of agriculture humankind has unevenly progressed towards the abolition of want. Today humanity worldwide produces enough for there to be material abundance for all. Instead, we have famine, homelessness, poverty & war, whilst a few have so much money they don't know how to spend it. The forces of production have been developed, but the class system still holds back humanity.
There is hope though. Capitalism is only struggling on due to a Ponzi scheme of money creation. It can't go on much longer. People are looking for something better, something that delivers. This can only come from a system that isn't based upon producing profit for a few. A system based upon meeting human needs. A system based upon participatory democracy, where the means of production are commonly owned & controlled.
History is far from dead; it is very much alive!
jon75
@duvinrouge The forces of production have not been fully developed in many countries in the world. And why ought technology and those who create it, not themselves burst the fetters of the outmoded means of production - the proletariat?  Technology shows us that there is more development to occur, something which command economics simply cannot deliver. It is not 1843 anymore - capitalism nowadays brings improvements in living quality.
Marx himself believed the class system originated in primitive divisions of labour, his own arguments undermine the idea of the inevitability of the destruction of class divisions.  
Johnny Julius Johnson
Martin clearly begs the question.  These oldsters take away more than they ever contributed.  Plus, they, in conjunction with the democratically elected policymakers create flows of cash favorable to private bank accounts and at the same time, draining on the accounts that fund the continuation of benefits of people that were supposed to die already.  And by begging the question, Martin is inflammatory.

No.  By gratuitously rewarding themselves with favorable fiscal policy that drained public coffers, oldsters must die. It has to be.  Irresponsibility must have its rewards and that is the crucial connection between policy and the people responsible for that policy.
Ni Treasa
I'm 33 and have decided to expire my life at 60. 
I'm in peak condition and have lived a wonderful life with an enjoyable job. 
But it's obvious that a natural death is too protracted and undignified nowadays. It'll only get worse.
Since I put a limit on my future; I've become much more discriminating upon that which I spend my time on; and whom with.
Also,  I need not worry about accruing assets, pension funds and that painfully hard goal of storing wealth.
Finally, the elephant in every room is Death and I have greeted him as a friend and a cure. Only he who is without fear is truly free.
Gentlemen, thanks for all those insightful and informed comments this past year; I've been grateful.
Have a Merry Christmas!

Jeannick
@Ni Treasa  Don't waste your breath , each age has its own enlightenment ,
get on the journey ......I'll be waiting at the end of the path .
Ealing
@Ni Treasa I'm 62. I promise you that when you reach 60 you will suddenly discover the most fun you have ever had. Your children will be grown and struggling with various issues that you remember you had, and you'll be able to help. Would you leave them to struggle without the wisdom of your years? (Ignore them when they say "I KNOW dad" because you're helping anyway.) The mortgage may be paid off and retirement, the only period you will ever encounter in your life where you get to do EXACTLY what you want, beckons invitingly.
After 60 years you have earned your time in the sun. And you would choose darkness instead? 
No, you won't. That's a promise. 
This comment has been removed
Ealing
@WendellMurray Hi Wendell. Can't see any video? Happy Christmas to you anyway. Here's to a more sane, but no less interesting 2015!!!
WendellMurray
@Ealing @WendellMurray The URL was appropriately and promptly removed.
Personal website where I put things and change things periodically, sometimes restricting access, sometimes not. Current "resources" show a tennis-ball launching machine in use that I bought about 1-1/2 years ago. Excellent machine which facilitates enjoyable aerobic exercise, not to mention invaluable for improving tennis strokes. The videos should stream well. If you accessed the site without success at viewing, I am not sure what might be the problem. 
The point on this, as it relates to commentary here, is that even misguided Trotskyites or Stalinists want good health and physical fitness too, as they age. On-going good health is obtainable, needless to write, if one makes some effort. 
Second, commenters here, like all people, have many and sundry interests. Thus there may well be coincidence of many other interests amongst commenters here whose political views otherwise differ substantially. None of us is remotely uni-dimensional.
Occamthebat
@ Ni Treasa: I suggest you read "The Fixed Period" by Anthony Trollope. The idea seems a good one, but less attractive as the date approaches.
aegian
We're on the eve of a new medical revolution based on gene therapy. That should change everything we know and think is possible health wise. Of course it needs funding. Any revolution which would affect everyone will have to be made possible by an efficient NHS free to everyone. How long will that be true?  The future knocks on the door but will the door open?
Seasons greetings to all at the FT and all readers.
Johnny Julius Johnson
When the benefit and entitlement policies were enacted, ostensibly (there are always conspiracy theories) longevity wasn't a word. So now  talk of therapies is societal disaster because of the fiscal ramifications.  What I recommend is internment camps for old people like martin wolf.  Its like a camping trip only totally different.
Johnny Julius Johnson
What old people like martin want to do is invest their money in IBB ( ETF for drugs prolonging life).  So they get rich off the economy that prolongs their life in a virtuous cycle for themselves but impoverishes the youth. 
greysuit
@aegian  Reverse the dilution of the gene pool caused by the Great Flood and all live to the age of Noah or Methuselah. One wonders how much golf one could play if one lived to 969
JCJC
very interesting if Martin could address quality of life measures, DALYS. 
Surely inconsistent that 93% of dogs are put down when their quality of life gets poor, but only c.1% of humans.
Chris_in_Oxford
One problem in trying to measure disability-free life expectancy is that assessments of what constitutes "good health" is in some degree a subjective matter. It depends on what people expect to be doing, given their age, etc. So analyses of DALYs and such like are never as clear-cut as studying death. However, although the pattern varies a bit from country to country, quality of healthy life indicators are also geneally progressing at about the same rate as life expctancy.
Adeline
A celebration of life is not merely measured in terms of longevity. It is measured in terms of the quality of lives that are lead. Add that into an axis of young Europeans currently and things look none too pleasing. Simple measurements and graphs distort facts - present a more nuanced picture that presents the picture in Europe delineating prospects for the quality of life prospects for 20 somethings in Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, Greece outlining the public liabilities that they will be incurring in future. Add in the UK, NL and Germany for a more rounded picture and remedies to the issues that face a lost generation in dealing with it - money printing aside.
Johnny Julius Johnson
I sympathize with your sentiments but I harshly criticize your intellect.  You have no right to judge the quality of peoples lives.  The only exception is people that live in  places and circumstances that are ridiculous.  North Korea comes to mind.  But there are places in Africa where young children are starving to death and its incorrect to blame them for their own demise. 
Adeline
@Johnny Julius Johnson This is an economics article and there are plenty of measures of quality of life that an economist could use. Average earnings, crime rates, holidays per year, debt, rural green belt, suicide rates, drug usage etc etc..... a happiness index of sorts can be compiled with numerous data. Life expectancy is a big one clearly in developing countries since there is very little else that can be measured showing quality of life. But a subsistent rural farmer in Ethiopia may well have a better quality of life than an unemployed student in Gijon. A cancer patient's temperature may not be high. Measuring one thing does not present an accurate picture of wellbeing.
Chris_in_Oxford
There is an even more striking way of considering life expectancy gains.
Martin correctly points out that we have been gaining about one extra year of life every four years of time. This is 3 months each year, or 6 hours a day. So when you go to bed tonight, console yourself with the thought that, of the previous 24 hours, you have ony been charged for 18.
Nicholas Pye-Smith
@Chris_in_Oxford I think you mis-read Martin's first sentence.  That rapid gain was for only the most extreme case and was averaged over 174 years from 1840.  It is most unlikely to be continuing at that average rate now and certainly not for all of us.  Sorry!
Chris_in_Oxford
Let me explain.
The work that Deaton and Martin refer to  (initially a key article in Science (Oeppen & Vaupel, 2002) Showed that the longest life expectancy of any county in each year had been rising linearly from 1840s on at 0.25 years per year. 
However, further research has shown that there has been substantial convergence of many countries towards the world's best. So now there is relatively little difference in life expectancy among OECD countries, and much of the developing world has been catching up too. Only Sub-Saharan Africa has missed out. The rest of the developing world (taken as a whole) is about were Britain was in the 1960s.
In fact, currently life expectancy for males in the UK is rising faster than the 0.25 years per year.
Hope this clarifies things a bit.
Adam Bartlett
I agree this should be celebrated, but want to note changes in life expectancy are not unidirectional. When free market thinking gets out of control, almost all the benefit goes to the elite, while the impact on regular people can drag down life expectancies of whole nations. For example, the US had a life expectancy of about 56 in 1800, but by 1850 this had fallen to only 43, partly due to the market reforms of the 1830s. Changes in the direction may have happened in Britain caused by austerity, with doctors noting a recent doubling in hospital admissions, and with the recent all-party hunger report finding that despicable benefit sanctions have been causing both mental and physical illness due to the resulting deprivation.
On the bright side, at least the world now has the formidable Martin Wolf frequently pushing back against free market extremists.
A very merry Christmas to all FT staff and readers!
Ian Campbell
What tosh you utter from idealogically tortuous pre-conception! 
Improvements in health and life expectancy  are a consequence of pockets of mankind being sufficiently free in time gone by, and hence open minded enough to experiment in improvements to anything  moral beings chose to prioritise. It is no coincidence that these were grounded in the capitalist economies. And it is even less  surprising that increasing prosperity was the enabler.  To achieve such progress mankind will always swing the pendulum too far in the direction of those who stand to gain the most often at the expense of the least advantaged. 
As mankind progresses it will become second nature to take account of those who get excluded from the early benefits of progress and that is how mankind will become more sentient without having to impose 'socialistic' systems of envy and Ludditiism to level the  playing field for idealogical reasons of little practical benefit.
Happy Christmas.
Toffe
@Ian Campbell @Adam Bartlett It seems that you are uttering nonsense from an blind ideological perspective. Free markets are reasonably good at providing products, however an unbiased assessment of heath care systems in different systems provide plenty of hard evidence that both life expectancy (LE) and infant mortality (IM) are significantly better in socially inclined systems than in hard capital based systems. Compare for example UK/France or US/Canada. It might be that you are not interested for these averages to improve, then capitalism does indeed work well for the few.
Its a matter of what you are looking to achieve with a political-economic system, however if LE and IM averages matter, socialist countries do far better. Nordic countries being the best functioning socialist countries in the world, with the best statistics to go with it.
WendellMurray
@Toffe @Ian Campbell @Adam Bartlett True. Competitively-determined markets, not capitalism, by the way, work very well in the provision of many consumer and industrial products and services, but are irrelevant with regard to other social matters, e.g. law enforcement, military, health and healthcare and similar.
jon75
"As mankind progresses it will become second nature to take account of those who get excluded from the early benefits of progress and that is how mankind will become more sentient without having to impose 'socialistic' systems of envy and Ludditiism to level the  playing field for idealogical reasons of little practical benefit."
Perhaps you could cite some sort of precedent for this utopia in which the winners in markets all voluntarily pay for the needs of those whom markets inevitably fail?  I'm quite surprised that you would say that there is "little practical benefit" in socialised provision of public goods.  Surely as another person said, the UK's socialised healthcare is provided universally at 8% of GDP as opposed to the USA's 15%+ for partial coverage.  That seems quite practical to me.  Besides all the infrastructure subsidy which is required to make a world which business can function in, let alone which people would want to live in. 
You sound equally as misguided and ideologically fantasy-gripped as a hardcore Marxist with his utopian fantasies of the historical necessity of the revolutionary dictatorship of the proletariat prior to the transition to communism.
COLOPHON
As always, your contribution is all too predictable.  
Adam Bartlett
@COLOPHON - be that as it may, it's nice to know right wingers are reading, no point preaching just to the converted!
@Ian Campbell - sorry for the mistake, I missed the words 'for malnutrition' when I wrote that Drs reported a doubling of hospital admissions. Other than that Im seeing any 'tosh' in the comment. Im not saying markets are always bad, similar to most other commentators I think moderately free markets are great for many things. It's a question of balance. The point is there's stacks of empirical evidence that when free market ideology becomes excessively influential on policy, outcomes for regular people suffers, and there's reason to think than in the English speaking world we're in such a period right now.

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