Nuclear Weapons Use In North Korea: An Update
David Whitten is a great lawyer who represented me in a tough case 15 years ago. He pulled off a miracle in negotiations. I didn’t have the cash to make the miracle happen. On a personal level, I tell David that he should get the Academy Award for being the world’s best dad. He and his dear wife raised their own kids and have adopted many more children, including those with special needs. I can’t say enough nice things about David.
David took strong exception to my prediction that Donald Trump would use nuclear weapons in North Korea. He claims that the Chinese would retaliate and it would cause World War III. I have evidence that refutes this.
A few days ago, I talked about North Korea. I raised a simple common sense question that no one has stepped up to answer yet. The question is as follows:
“Iran has tens of billions of dollars in oil revenues. Yet they have not been able to build a nuclear warhead. North Korea is dead broke and cannot even feed their population. Yet they have been able to develop multiple nuclear warheads, Some pretty-advanced delivery systems, etc. Who is putting up the money to make this happen?”
When it comes to providing the financing, four suspects come to light as follows:
China: Elena suspects them. I do not. Whether you like Henry Kissinger or not, he is truly the one Western man who understands China. He wrote a book about China that is long and involved. Please find the time to read it. After reading this book I think that the Chinese would be much too cautious and responsible ever to do such a thing.
Pakistan: One hears all sorts of stories about radical Muslims and the fear or Pakistani nuclear technology and weapons being sold to terrorists. I have personal experience dealing with very legitimate large private companies in Pakistan. They are true professionals. They run excellent companies that are 100% honest. Prudent and careful investments there will yield good returns. I have seen interviews with senior officials at the US Embassy to Pakistan. They uniformly praise the Pakistan military and the security that it maintains over nuclear weapons. I reject them as a suspect.
Iranian Hard Liners: The Revolutionary Guards similar groups might be financing North Korean nuclear weapons programs. Of course, the questions comes to mind: “If they have put up the money why haven’t they received a nuclear war head?”
Wealthy Jihadist financing ISIS and other terrorist groups. These are my prime suspects. What do they want for the big investment? The answer is straight forward. They want to create a department store (ie: Macy’s Dillard’s, etc) for nuclear warheads. North Korea will be the “go to” place for terrorists to purchase nuclear warheads and radiological materials for “dirty bombs.”
The military and intelligence authorities in several countries know about this danger. Stratfor is the best civilian intelligence agency on planet earth. They already have published a creditable war plan using very-advanced conventional weapons to destroy North Korea’s nuclear capability:
Stratfor has also looked at how the North Koreans would retaliate and the consequences of such a military strike:
Nowhere in this analysis do the Stratfor people see any probability of a Chinese military response to such an attack.
Now we add Donald Trump into the equation. During his campaign for president he repeated presented the question: “Why can’t I use nuclear weapons?” All other US president in recent history consider a nuclear first-strike of any kind taboo. Richard M. Nixon was the one exception. He wanted to employ nuclear weapons against North Vietnam and North Korea. Henry Kissinger blocked all these attempts to use nuclear weapons. Donald Trump has a national security advisor, General Flynn, just like him-short tempered and vindictive.
Kim Jun Un is going to underestimate Trump. He will challenge Trump and provoke him to action. Trump will have a look at the war plan in place to destroy North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. Trump will quickly come to the conclusion that such an attack would leave Kim Jun Un in place with many military capabilities. Trump and General Flynn will choose tactical nuclear weapons to destroy North Korea’s military and affect a regime change there. A surprise nuclear attack will follow.
Will China retaliate with nuclear weapons? I think not. China has strict rules of engagement for the use of nuclear weapons. To make a long story short, China will only use nuclear weapons if a nuclear weapon is detonated above or on Chinese territory. China does not consider North Korea Chinese territory.
What are the consequences of such a nuclear strike? Financial markets will tumble and investors will suffer short-term losses. You will have a huge refugee problem like we have in Syria now. China and South Korea will be “stuck with the bill for this mess.” Trump will pay nothing. South Korea will suffer serious damage as the remnants of the North Korean military machine attack Seoul. Again, Donald Trump will pay nothing to repair these damages.
There will be huge and violent protests worldwide. Trump will be compared to Adolf Hitler. A precedent will also be set where any country with nuclear weapons can make a first strike if tensions arise.