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Thursday, June 2, 2022

I'm Starting To Read Stephen Marche's "The Next Civil War"

      I am starting to read Stephen Marche's The Next Civil War. Here is the link on Amazon:

 

https://www.amazon.com/Next-Civil-War-Dispatches-American/dp/1982123214

     I do not have a political agenda when I write. I only discuss my personal political views with Elena, Pedro, and my sister Marianna. I like to expose you to stimulating facts and let you draw your own conclusions.

     This book presents a fascinating possibility. It is not a guarantee of what is going to happen. My hero in the investment business, Ray Dalio, considered the same set of facts that Mr. Marche did. He rated the probability of a second US civil war at 30%.

    The Chinese have a proverb that I love as follows:

      "May you live in interesting times."

     I lived in South Africa during the turbulent time that it transitioned from a white minority government to a black majority government. Every other African state had experienced a violent civil war during such a transition. There were all sorts of fears and grim predictions. The very conservative Afrikaaner minority was well-armed, had excellent military training, and had no other country to go to. They were an analog to the people with conservative views in the U.S. It was assumed that they would "fight to the death" to stop the transition.

     One female journalist wrote an Op-Ed in the Johannesburg Star that surprised everyone. She urged calm. She told people that they had nothing to fear. She pointed out that a great majority of Afrikaaners lived in nice homes and apartments. They drove nice cars. They ate good food. Their children went to nice schools. They were not going to, as the old saying goes, "give up the good life" to take up arms and fight. Her prediction came true. The same can apply here.

 

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