I am starting to read Stephen Marche's The Next Civil War. Here is the link on Amazon:
https://www.amazon.com/Next-
I do not have a political agenda when I write. I only discuss my personal
political views with Elena, Pedro, and my sister Marianna. I like to expose you
to stimulating facts and let you draw your own conclusions.
This book presents a fascinating possibility. It is not a guarantee of
what is going to happen. My hero in the investment business, Ray Dalio,
considered the same set of facts that Mr. Marche did. He rated the probability
of a second US civil war at 30%.
The Chinese have a proverb that I love as follows:
"May you live in interesting times."
I lived in South Africa during the turbulent time that it transitioned
from a white minority government to a black majority government. Every other
African state had experienced a violent civil war during such a transition.
There were all sorts of fears and grim predictions. The very conservative
Afrikaaner minority was well-armed, had excellent military training, and had no
other country to go to. They were an analog to the people with conservative
views in the U.S. It was assumed that they would "fight to the death"
to stop the transition.
One female journalist wrote an Op-Ed in the Johannesburg Star that
surprised everyone. She urged calm. She told people that they had nothing to fear.
She pointed out that a great majority of Afrikaaners lived in nice homes and
apartments. They drove nice cars. They ate good food. Their children went to
nice schools. They were not going to, as the old saying goes, "give up the
good life" to take up arms and fight. Her prediction came true. The same
can apply here.
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